Morning News – 2022/03/28

Good morning...

It seems a long time since the last Morning News.

There is a reason for this...

As some of you know, I have some sleep problems and, as a result, only get 4 hours sleep a night.

This isn't really enough and restricts the amount of work that I can do on a daily basis.

However, last Monday I stumbled (completely by accident) on a small lifestyle change (no medication involved) and, as a result...

I have been sleeping 8 hours a night since then; high quality sleep as well.

This, however, has sort of changed my morning routine and it has been a struggle to sort out a new one.

Now, I would explain more but it really has nothing to do with the ratings and system selections and anyway...

I would far rather talk about the Focus Ratings R10 ratings.

Focus Ratings R10 Ratings...

As you know, the R10 ratings are the R8 ratings but only for those races where the top rated horse has a confidence of 130% or greater.

Win betting the top rated horse

I have published a spreadsheet to show the opportunities for Win betting the top rated horse in these races; the spreadsheet is available here... http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_top_rated_win.xlsx

This shows a number of strategies, the best of which are shown in tab 9 (5 races a week, a strike rate of 49.74% and a POI of 35.73%) and...

Tab 10 (7 races a week, a 61.79% strike rate and a POI of 70.17%)

Both of those strategies are based on BSP with a commission of 2%.

Multi

Now, last Monday I demonstrated my Multi spreadsheet that shows other opportunities for betting the R10 rated races.

The spreadsheet is available here... http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_multi.xlsx

As I explained, to populate this spreadsheet I have to go through it race by race and that is taking me massive amounts of time but, I have completed 2020.

If you look at the first tab, this is a screenshot of what it looks like.

I wouldn't worry too much about the other tabs as I have created other spreadsheets to demonstrate the other different strategies.

A run through the 2020 data shown on the Multi spreadsheet show that there are a number of possible strategies - some really jump out.

I mentioned, last week, that there should be a Place Bet strategy for the 2nd rated horse but...

What really stood out for me is the possibility of Lay Betting the 3rd rated horse.

Lay Betting the 3rd rated horse

The spreadsheet is available here... R10_multi_3rd_rated_lay.xlsx

I will explain all in more detail in a few days time but I have identified 4 concurrent strategies for Lay Betting the 3rd rated horse.

1). The first is to blindly lay the 3rd rated horse where the forecast price (my forecast price) is 4.30 or greater; this is shown on tab 6.

This gives 170 races a year (bear in mind that, for racing purposes, 2020 was a short year) with a strike rate of 97.66% and a POI of 81.18%

2). Tab 7 shows what happens if you blindly lay the 3rd rated horse where that horse didn't come in the top three on its last run.

This gives 279 races a year with a strike rate of 92.83% and a POI of 23.08%

3). Tab 8 shows what happens if you blindly lay the 3rd rated horse in races with 12 runners or more.

This gives 131 races a year with a strike rate of 90.84% and a POI of 27.56%

4). Finally, tab 9 shows what happens if you blindly lay the 3rd rated horse in certain race types.

This gives 279 races a year with a strike rate of 92.83% and a POI of 23.08%

Now, all 4 strategies are designed to run concurrently. Sometimes a horse will be selected by more than one strategy; when that happens I would stake at 2 or 3 points (depending on how many strategies have selected that horse) on that selection.

Place Betting the 2nd rated horse

The spreadsheet is available here... R10_multi_2nd_rated_place.xlsx

I have identified 3 strategies for Place Betting the 2nd rated horse in R10 rated races.

1). Tab 6 shows what happens when you Place Bet the 2nd rated horse in certain race types.

This gives 117 races a year with a strike rate of 74.36% and a POI of 45.67%

2). Tab 8 shows what happens when you Place Bet the 2nd rated horse in 5, 6 & 14 runner (plus) races.

This gives 91 races a year with a strike rate of 76.92% and a POI of 51.22%

3). Tab 10 shows what happens when you Place Bet the 2nd rated horse when it has a fcs (forecast status) of 2.2 or less.

This gives 163 races a year with a strike rate of 76.07% and a POI of 29.82%

Once again, all three strategies can be used at the same time with stakes of 1 point for each strategy when a horse is selected by more than one strategy.

Place Betting the top rated horse

The spreadsheet is available here... R10_top_rated_place.xlsx

I have identified 3 strategies for Place Betting the top rated horse in R10 rated races.

1). Tab 3 shows what happens when you Place Bet the top rated horse in certain race types.

This gives 6 races a week with a strike rate of 79.38% and a POI of 14.76%

2). Tab 5 shows what happens when you Place Bet the top rated horse where it has an fcs of 1 to 3 inclusive.

This gives 5.8 races a week with a strike rate of 80.13% and a POI of 15.64%

3). Tab 7 shows what happens when you Place Bet the top rated horse where it was a winner in its last race.

This gives 3.2 races a week with a strike rate of 56.41% and a POI of 12.83%

Once again, all three strategies can be used at the same time with stakes of 1 point for each strategy when a horse is selected by more than one strategy.

Conclusion

Now that I have some strategies I can run 3 scripts to generate the selections for a 6 year and 3 months period (1st Jan 2016 to yesterday.)

From the results I shall produce a new Multi spreadsheet.

I shall also produce a crib sheet so that Focus Ratings members can manually work out the selections themselves; it doesn't take long - yesterday there were 5 meetings and only 4 R10 rated races. It took me about 10 minutes to produce the selections for testing purposes.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.3%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.56%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.32% from all 38 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 71.93 units returned to 102 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -29.48%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 33.44 units returned to 33 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 1.33%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.99 units returned to 35 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -40.03%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.5 units returned to 34 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -48.53%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 12 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 41.67%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13.16 units returned to 12 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 9.67%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 12 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 11 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 91.67%

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Investment Betting

There were three Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Carlisle - 15:53 - Gredin - 2nd

Ascot - 14:10 - Golden Boy Grey - 1st @ 4.63 BSP

Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - 1st @ 1.77 BSP

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EarlyBird Ratings

There was one Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selection yesterday...

Ascot - 13:00 - Fifty Ball - 1st @ 2.30 BSP

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

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Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that...

Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were three Portfolio Betting selections yesterday.

Naas - 14:05 - Lord Dudley - 1st @ 8.09 BSP
Ascot - 14:10 - Golden Boy Grey - 1st @ 4.63 BSP
Carlisle - 15:01 - Timetoroe - 1st @ 4.80 BSP

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were four selections yesterday.

Ascot - 13:00 - Sizable Sam - 2nd
Carlisle - 13:53 - Gredin - 2nd
Limerick - 15:26 - Darrens Hope - 2nd
Carlisle - 17:15 - Imperial B G - 1st @ 1.92 BSP

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Place Profits

Selections - Place Profits Plus

Ascot - 14:10 - Golden Boy Grey - 1st @ 1.86

Selections - New System

Ascot - 14:10 - Golden Boy Grey - 1st @ 1.86
Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - 1st @ 1.09

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Ascot - 14:10 - Golden Boy Grey - 1st @ 1.86
Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - 1st @ 1.09

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - 1st @ 1.09

Original System (200% Confidence.)

Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - 1st @ 1.09

I have updated the results (28th March 2022) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

In addition, there is also a new Place Betting option.

The result of that tweak are clear to see...

2022-03-27 - Ascot - 14:10 - Win Bet - Golden Boy - 1st @ 4.63 BSP
2022-03-27 - Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - Win Bet - 1st @ 1.77 BSP
2022-03-27 - Doncaster - 15:10 - Dawn Of Liberation - Place Bet - 1st @ 1.07 BSP

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Something to make you smile...

Talking Chicken...

A guy goes into a bar with a chicken. The bartender of course says, “What’s up with the chicken? We don’t allow chickens in here.“

The guy says “it’s okay, Freddie’s a talking chicken!“

The bartender says “yeah sure pal. If that chicken can talk, I’ll give you all the free beer you want.“

The guy says “Okay, here you go! Freddie, what’s your favorite favorite kind of beer?”

The chicken says “Bock, bock, bock.”

The bartender says “Ha, ha, very funny, pal!”

The guy says “No, really! He can talk! Freddie, what’s a male deer called?”

The chicken says “Buck, buck, buck.”

The bartender says, “Okay, it was funny the first time, but now it’s kind of annoying!”

The guy says, “I swear! Give me one more chance! Freddie, who’s the best composer ever?”

The chicken says “Bach, Bach, Bach.”

The bartender says, “All right, that’s it! You’re outta here!” And the bartender throws him and the chicken out.

The guy says, “Freddie, you really disappointed me! How come you didn’t prove to the bartender that you can talk?”

The chicken says “what did you want me to say, Beethoven?“

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards