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Morning News – 2022/03/30

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning...

I apologise for being a bit late with the Morning News today but...

Now that I am getting 8 hours sleep a night (for the first time in 6 years) it's sort of unavoidable.

My secret is that...

I used to go to my local PMU (read this to find out what a PMU is... Why a PMU ain't your average bookies) 50 yards away, every morning for a coffee and a croissant - it's sort of the law over here in France.

Last week the bar closed down for annual holidays and, rather than go to one of the many other bars in the village I decided to walk the 5 miles to a bar in my nearest village.

The 10 mile round trip seemed to tire me out a bit and, as a result, I slept for 8 hours (and good sleep) that night.

So, I have been doing the same ever since.

Personally I believe that it is the 3 hours away from the computers (I have an L shaped desk and am surrounded by 9 screens) and the fresh air and beautiful views that are helping as much as the extra exercise.

Anyway, on to R10.

R10

I have published a new spreadsheet which is available at... http://focusratings.com/R10/R10_3.xlsx

This concerns the possibility of laying the 3rd rated horse (where there is one) in R10 rated races.

I'll walk you though it.

Tab 1 shows the raw data. This is every R10 rated race (which contains a 3rd rated selection - not all do) since the 1st of January 2016 up until the 28th of March 2022.

Taking the 11 weeks of lockdown in 2020 and the 1 week of no racing due to Equine Flu in 2018 this equates to about 6 years of data.

Tab 2 shows a strategy based upon profitable race types. This gives a strike rate of 94.20% and a POI of 60.17%.

Tab 3 shows the actual selections from that strategy - just look at the amount of green compared to pink - green is good.

Tab 4 shows what happens if you blindly back the 3rd rated horse in races with 11 runners or more. This gives a strike rate of 89.70% and a POI of 24.07%.

Tab 5 shows the selections from both strategies combined.

Tab 6 shows the daily results from the 2 combined strategies. This is primarily for losing run analysis. I am betting to a 20 point bank. Obviously, when we have a losing day it hurts us but, that is normal in a laying system.

The chart shows the growth of the bank (assuming no take outs over the 6 year period.

R10_3

Although the graph is a bit Sawtooth for my liking, this is, once again, quite normal for a laying system.

Having said that, if you look at the period for the 1st of January 2016 to the 29th of January 2018 it is a pretty straight line showing a massive growth.

Overall this combined strategy (for laying the 3rd rated horse in R10 rated races) give the followin statistics over the last 6 years...

Strike Rate = 92.85%
POI = 49.37%

If you look at yesterday's R10 ratings PDF... http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-R10-2022-03-29-789672.pdf you will see that there were no selections as there were no races with a 3rd rated horse.

Today I shall be doing a similar exercise for Place Betting the 2nd rated horse. The spreadsheet will follow the same pattern.

Additionally, I shall create a new spreadsheet wgich will show the results of laying the third rated horse and place betting the second rated horse combined.

This is starting to look very good to me - I'll be updating you on a daily basis.


Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 46.15%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 44.44%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 46.15% from all 26 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 69.07 units returned to 81 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -14.73%

Top Rated Horse - There were 12 winners from the top rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38.19 units returned to 26 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 46.88%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the second rated horses from 28 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 2.38 units returned to 28 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -91.5%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.5 units returned to 27 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 5.56%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 75%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.36 units returned to 8 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 42%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 75%


A pen and a magnifying glass focusing on a chart.

Investment Betting

There was one Investment Betting selection (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Fontwell - 13:00 - Dom Of Mary - 1st @ 1.61 BSP

2022-03-30--1648621587_1087x553_scrot


eb

EarlyBird Ratings

There was one Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selection yesterday...

Fontwell - 13:00 - Dom Of Mary - 1st @ 1.61 BSP

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.


portfolio

Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that...

Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were three Portfolio Betting selections yesterday.

Fontwell - 13:30 - Friend Or Foe - 3rd
Navan - 14:50 - Teddy Boy - 3rd
Navan - 15:25 - Walnut Beach - 10th


advance

Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were four selections yesterday.

1.55 - Uttoxeter - Lleyton - 7th
2.30 - Uttoxeter - Prince Des Fichaux - 2nd
4.25 - Fontwell - Sea The Clouds - 2nd
5.20 - Uttoxeter - Touchy Feely - 3rd
6.00 - Wolverhampton - Intervention - 2nd



Place Profits

Selections - Place Profits Plus

There are no selections today.

Selections - New System

There are no selections today.

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Fontwell - 13:00 - Dom Of Mary - 1st @ 1.07

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Fontwell - 13:00 - Dom Of Mary - 1st @ 1.07

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

I have updated the results (30th March 2022) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

2022-03-30--1648622178_1098x763_scrot


Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

In addition, there is also a new Place Betting option.

There were two selections yesterday.

Uttoxeter - 13:55 - Lleyton - 7th
Uttoxeter - 16:45 - Larkbarrow Lad - 5th


Something to make you smile...

Retirement...

Three old men are lounging in chairs on the beach in the French Riviera.

One of them says, "I had a business but it burned to the ground. With the insurance money I was able to retire here."

Another said, "Well that's a coincidence. I had a business that had a gas leak and blew up and the insurance money allowed me to retire here."

The third guy said, "You're not gonna believe this but I had a business and it was destroyed by a flood and I was able to retire here with the insurance settlement."

After a pause, the first guy asked the third guy, "So who do you call to arrange a flood?"


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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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