Morning News – 2022/05/30

Good morning...

Although I didn't get much work done over the weekend...

I have cut a number of spreadsheets and have started making progress on them.

The whole concept that I am investigating is as follows...

For the Focus Ratings R10 rated races, I want to be able to pick the best one of the day.

Now, at this point I don't know how to do it but, going through the spreadsheets, I am getting some ideas.

So, for the sake of argument let's choose an 8 runner non-handicap Novice Hurdle.

I am choosing that race as we have a 55% strike rate (and you'll see why that is important) for the top rated horse in that race type.

So, the obvious thing to do is to Win Bet the top rated horse.

We might as well Place Bet it as well, just for safety's sake.

We should also Place Bet the 2nd rated and 3rd rated horse.

Then we should Lay Bet the 4th rated horse.

But, hey ho, if we Lay Bet the 4th rated horse, why not Lay Bet the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated horses as well.

Now, there may be some filters (forecast price is the obvious one) but...

Just say the 4th rated horse wins the race (and in 8 runner Novice Hurdles that almost never happens) then we still get 4 times 0.98 BSP returns from the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated horses who, obviously, can't win the race as the 4th rated horse has done so itself.

Anyway, that is the theory.

I have split the races into 4 groups - 5 to 7 runners, 8 to 15 runners, 16 runners plus (non-handicap) and 16 runners plus (handicap.)

I'm not sure, at this point, which group is going to give the best results but, by working through the spreadsheets, I should get the answer.

The whole idea is to allow Focus Ratings members the ability to select one or two R10 rated races a day (according to the rules that I shall publish) where we can bet the whole race rather than having just a single bet on just one horse. Precision Betting members will get the selections automatically.

I have never heard of a strategy like this but, it sort of happens in derivatives and equities trading - if IBM bring out a new mainframe and you think that, as a result, IBM's share price is going to rise, you might buy IBM shares but, at the same time, short Hewlett Packard shares.

Now, there might be a good reason why this strategy isn't used but, in the example used above, the top rated horse has a 55% strike rate so, the remaining 7 horses share a 45% chance of winning. If you are laying the 5 lowest rated of those horses then you should stand a pretty good chance. In an ideal outcome you would have 9 winning bets from an 8 horse race.

Now that I am taking long walks every day (to help me with my sleep problems) I have plenty of time to think about how this should work.

I'll keep you updated and, once I've got a comprehensible spreadsheet, I'll publish a link to it.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 32%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.63% from all 27 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 61.54 units returned to 75 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -17.95%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.92 units returned to 25 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -16.32%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.75 units returned to 25 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 19%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.87 units returned to 25 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -56.52%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 9 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 33.33%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 5.19 units returned to 9 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -42.33%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 9 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 7 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 77.78%

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Investment Betting

There were two Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Uttoxeter - 14:56 - Peerless Beauty - 3rd

Kelso - 17:40 - Come On Berlais - 1st @ 1.88 BSP

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Precision Betting

There was one selection yesterday.

Punchestown - 17:25 - Gaoth Chuil (2W1) - Win Bet - 2nd

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were no Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections yesterday...

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

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Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that...

Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were five selections yesterday.

Kelso - 15:22 - The Navigator - 2nd
Punchestown - 15:40 - Direct Image - 1st @ 4.35 BSP
Fontwell - 15:49 - Good News - NR
Kelso - 16:32 - Hidden Commander - 1st @ 2.26 BSP
Fontwell - 16:59 - The Height Of Fame - 1st @ 2.57 BSP

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were five selections yesterday.

Uttoxeter - 13:46 - Hang In There - 1st @ 2.62 BSP
Kelso - 14:12 - Ted Hastings - 2nd
Uttoxeter - 14:21 - You Name Him - 1st @ 2.67 BSP
Uttoxeter - 14:56 - Peerless Beauty - 3rd
Kelso - 17:40 - Come On Du Berlais - 1st @ 1.88 BSP

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Place Profits

Selections - Place Profits Plus

Punchestown - 17:25 - Pink In The Park - 1st @ 1.21

Selections - New System

Uttoxeter - 14:56 - Peerless Beauty - 3rd @ 1.19

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Uttoxeter - 14:56 - Peerless Beauty - 3rd @ 1.19

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Uttoxeter - 14:56 - Peerless Beauty - 3rd @ 1.19

Original System (200% Confidence.)

Uttoxeter - 14:56 - Peerless Beauty - 3rd @ 1.19

I have updated the results (6th May 2022) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

In addition, there is also a new Place Betting option.

Fontwell - 15:49 - Good News - NR

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Something to make you smile...

A Russian And Irish Wrestler...

A Russian and an Irish wrestler were set to square off for the Olympic gold medal.

Before the match, the Irish wrestler's trainer came to him and said, "Now, don't forget all the research we've done on this Russian. He's never lost a match because of this 'pretzel' hold he has. It ties you up in knots. Whatever you do, do not let him get you in that hold! If he does, you're finished."

The Irishman nodded in acknowledgment. As the match started, the Irishman and the Russian circled each other several times, looking for an opening.

All of a sudden, the Russian lunged forward, grabbing the Irishman and wrapping him up in the dreaded pretzel hold.

A sigh of disappointment arose from the crowd and the trainer buried his face in his hands, for he knew all was lost. He couldn't watch the inevitable happen.

Suddenly, there was a long, high pitched scream, then a cheer from the crowd and the trainer raised his eyes just in time to watch the Russian go flying up in the air. His back hit the mat with a thud and the Irishman collapsed on top of him, making the pin and winning the match.

The trainer was astounded. When he finally got his wrestler alone, he asked, "How did you ever get out of that hold? No one has ever done it before!"

The wrestler answered, "Well, I was ready to give up when he got me in that hold but at the last moment, I opened my eyes and saw this pair of testicles right in front of my face. I had nothing to lose so with my last ounce of strength, I stretched out my neck and bit those buggers just as hard as I could."

The trainer exclaimed, "Oh, so that's what finished him off?!!!"

"Not really. You'd be amazed how strong you get when you bite your own balls.

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards