Morning News – 2022/05/31

Good morning...

I have realised that...

In order to choose one race a day that we can use the R10 ratings to give us multiple bets on a single race, I'll probably have to choose suitable race types.

So, yesterday, in order to give me some clues I took a look at R10 rated races with 5 to 8 runners.

I used six and a half years of data which gives me a pretty decent data sample.

I found (to my surprise) that there are a number of race types which, over the last six and a half years have always been won by an R10 top three rated horse.

Now, this gives us some options...

1). For those race type we could just Dutch the top three rated horses knowing that the winner will (or, rather, has historically) come from one of them.

2). We could Lay Bet the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated horses as we know that, historically, they have never won that race type.

Or, we could do a combination of the two.

Interestingly, for some of those race types, the winner has always been the top rated horse.

Now, I am still working my way though things (and, to a certain extent, feeling my way as I go) but, today, I shall cut a new spreadsheet showing all R10 rated races with 5 runners or more over the same six and a half year period.

This will give me a full data set to work with.

I'll report on my findings tomorrow.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.22%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.67%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 4.65% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.13 units returned to 32 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -18.34%

Top Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the top rated horses from 9 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 2.75 units returned to 9 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -69.44%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the second rated horses from 12 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 3.5 units returned to 12 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -70.83%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 11 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.88 units returned to 11 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 80.73%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 2 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 1 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 50%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 2 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -100%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 2 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 1 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 50%

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Investment Betting

There were two Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Redcar - 15:05 - Bellestreet Birdie - 2nd

Ayr - 18:30 - Cathayensis - 7th

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Precision Betting

There were four selections yesterday.

Ballinrobe - 17:45 - Douglas DC (Win Bet) - 2nd
Ballinrobe - 17:45 - Douglas DC (Place Bet) - 2nd @ 1.44 BSP
Ayr - 18:00 - Bouncing Bobby (Win Bet) - 3rd
Ayr - 18:30 - Cathayensis (Place Bet) - 7th

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were no Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections yesterday...

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

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Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that...

Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were two selections yesterday.

Lingfield - 13:15 - The Whipmaster - 1st @ 1.92 BSP
Ballinrobe - 18:20 - Nodoubtaboutthat - PU

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were three selections yesterday.

Cartmel - 13:40 - Prime Time Lady - 1st @ 2.23 BSP
Cartmel - 16:55 - Matts Commission - 2nd
Ballinrobe - 20:25 - Blossom De Mai - 5th

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Place Profits

Selections - Place Profits Plus

Ballinrobe - 17:45 - Prairie Dancer - 1st @ 1.31

Selections - New System

Redcar - 15:05 - Bellstreet Bridie - 2nd @ 1.40
Cartmel - 16:20 - Manofthemountain - NR
Redcar - 16:40 - Rocket Rod - NR

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Redcar - 15:05 - Bellstreet Bridie - 2nd @ 1.40

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Redcar - 15:05 - Bellstreet Bridie - 2nd @ 1.40

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

I have updated the results (6th May 2022) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

In addition, there is also a new Place Betting option.

Redcar - 16:05 - Rum Going On - 2nd

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Something to make you smile...

An Australian rugby fan, a South African rugby fan and a New Zealand rugby fan are all in Saudi Arabia, sharing a smuggled crate of booze...

...when Saudi police rush in and arrest them.

The mere possession of alcohol is a severe offence in Saudi Arabia, so for consuming the booze they are all sentenced to death. However, after many months and with the help of good lawyers, they are able successfully to appeal their sentences down to life imprisonment.

By a stroke of luck, it was a Saudi national holiday the day their trial finished, and the benevolent sheikh decided they could be released after receiving just 20 lashes.

As they were preparing for their punishment, the sheikh announced, "It's my first wife's birthday today, and she has asked me to allow each of you one wish before your whipping."

The South African was first. He thought for a while, then said, "Please tie a pillow to my back."

This was done, but the pillow lasted only 10 lashes before the whip went through. When the punishment was done, the South African had to be carried away bleeding and crying with pain.

The Australian was next up. After watching the South African's horror, he said smugly, "Please fix two pillows to my back." But even two pillows could take only 15 lashes before the whip went through and the Australian was soon led away whimpering loudly (as they do).

The New Zealander was the last one up, but before he could say anything, the sheikh turned to him and said, "You are from a most beautiful part of the world and your culture is one of the finest. For this, you may have two wishes!"

"Thank you, your most royal and merciful highness," the Kiwi replied. "In recognition of your kindness, my first wish is that you give me not 20 lashes but 100 lashes."

"Not only are you an honorable, handsome and powerful man, you are also very brave," the sheikh said with an admiring look on his face. "If 100 lashes is what you desire, then so be it. And your second wish"?

"Tie the Australian to my back."

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards