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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Another blistering day, yesterday...

Where it would have been profitable to blindly back the top rated horse or,

The second rated horse.

Our Banker's Bet won and..

Our only Place Betting Strategy selection came second;

Betfair paid 1.80 for the place.

And I may have made a breakthrough on the new Place Betting Strategy.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.78%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 127.36 units returned to 134 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -4.96%

Top Rated Horse - There were 15 winners from the top rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 52.31 units returned to 45 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 16.24%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 12 winners from the second rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 53.05 units returned to 46 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 15.33%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22 units returned to 43 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -48.84%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Ripon 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £5.53

Ascot 15:05:00 - The CSF paid £10.28

Leopardstown 18:25:00 - The CSF paid £16.17

Lingfield (AW) 19:20:00 - The CSF paid £6.44

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Leicester 18:30:00 - The CSF paid £28.60

Lingfield (AW) 18:45:00 - The CSF paid £83.56

Leopardstown 18:55:00 - The CSF paid £24.87

Ffos Las 20:45:00 - The CSF paid £14.92

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 1 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ripon 14:10:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £36.50

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 5 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ascot 15:40:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £37.00

Ripon 15:55:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £22.60

Leicester 19:35:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £25.10

Leopardstown 20:30:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid €103.80

Leicester 21:05:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £58.30

Winners

From the 46 rated races there were 32 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Ascot 15:40 Curvy (2) 5.50 7.00
Leicester 18:00 Royal Normandy (12) 7.00 7.95
Leopardstown 18:25 Private Paradise (7) 5.50 5.70
Leicester 18:30 Spongy (5) 7.50 8.49
Ffos Las 18:35 Clubs Are Trumps (7) 5.50 6.34
Lingfield (AW) 18:45 Goolagong Girl (4) 9.00 10.50
Ffos Las 19:10 Moorlands Jack (5) 5.50 5.82
Leicester 21:05 Moruadh (4) 7.00 7.80

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Claimers - big priced boys - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Claimer and Horse = Male (Stallion, Colt or Gelding) and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 3

Selection = Back to ISP - Ripon - 14:45:00 - Inxile (3)

Races (over last year): 20 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 35.00% ROI: 134.05% AV SP: 3.83

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £68.10

Inxile won at 3.5 ISP (3.65 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = Flat Claimers - big priced boys - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Claimer and Horse = Male (Stallion, Colt or Gelding) and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 3

Selection = Back to ISP - Leicester - 19:00:00 - Swift Cedar (6)

Races (over last year): 20 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 35.00% ROI: 134.05AV SP: 3.83

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £68.10

Swift Cedar came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Another good day for the existing Place Betting Strategy with our only selection, yesterday, coming second.

Unfortunately for me (but fortunately for you) I have discovered another trend which means that I now need to re-think my new Place Betting Strategy.

I was watching the results coming in (well, we all have to have a hobby, don't we? And there are worse hobbies that I could choose - I could be a stamp collector, for example. Actually, I was a stamp collector when I was a kid - before I discovered the fascinating world of watching horse racing results!)

And I noticed there high number of cases of where we got a win or a place when the horse was running at a higher rating (R4) than its Average R4.

Take a look at Chelmsford 14:20 yesterday (Thursday 18th June.) Or...
Ripon 14:45
Chelmsford 14:55
Ascot 15:05
Ripon 15:20

And that's just from the first page of the normal ratings!

I went through the last week's worth of printouts and found the trend to be consistent.

So, I now need to totally start again from scratch with the new Place Betting Strategy taking this into account.

One big step back but, hopefully, two massive steps forward.

There may be a relationship between the percentage difference between Average R4 and actual R4 (this is shown on the speed ratings.)

Now, so far this is just an observed trend (just as the Place Betting Strategy was a result of something that I saw on a day to day basis) and I need to do the number crunching to prove it, or otherwise.

This is exactly the sort of thing that Sherlock and Holmes (my two new number crunching and analysis programs running on my new server), will be able to do in hours instead of the days that it'll probably take me...

If only I'd got them finished before going off on a tangent with the new Place Betting Strategy.

The next two days will be spent creating a new spreadsheet (it's the generating the numbers that takes the time) and then testing whether this observed trend has any value (it's also the analysing the numbers that takes the time) and then reporting on my results.

Come to think of it, it's the reporting on my results which also takes the time.

I do have to say that I've got a nice warm feeling about this...

It feels right, it has logic and, just by looking at a pile of printouts, it is consistently observable as well.

I'm so glad that I stopped stamp collecting when I was a kid and started watching horse racing results as a hobby instead!

Today

Today's early test ratings show 44 rated races from seven meetings.

I'll be sending the Place Betting Strategy selections out as soon as I can. Once I've got the new strategy sorted out I'll put a link to the selections on the normal ratings email and, thus, you'll get them earlier.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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