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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning

I don't watch much horse racing and,

I'm not really a fan of watching All Weather racing, the Jumps are more my thing.

But I've really got to feel thankful to the AW at Kempton yesterday evening.

The five winners (for the top rated horse) from the eight races there yesterday,

Meant that an average day at the races was turned in to a pretty spectacular one as a result!

So, thank you Kempton Park.

Thank you very much.

Yesterday's Results

From a pretty mundane day's racing I would have been quite happy with a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of about 23%.

About what we got, this time last year.

And, indeed, at the start of the day, it looked like that might have been quite a respectable finish.

But, as you can see, from the Results, we did slightly better than that.

On a day when there were no forecasts, no tricasts and only one big priced winner...

We still managed an excellent strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 32.0%!

There are Tipsters who can't get a 32% strike rate!

Please bear in mind that, last December, we had an average strike rate of 23.03% and..

So far, this December, we've hit (for our top rated horse)...

1st December - 28.57%

2nd December - 50%

3rd December - 32.0%

And that equates to an average strike for the month, so far, of... 36.36%

Once again, that's compared to a strike rate for December last year of 23.03%


There were no forecasts yesterday.


There were no tricasts yesterday.


From the 26 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - only one of those was at a nice price.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Ludlow 15:40 Arthamint 12.0 13.5


Well, during the day, I thought that I would be writing an apologetic post this morning.

I don't really have a problem with that; if I can crow about the really good days, I also need to feel able to discuss the bad days.

And there will be some bad days, it's inevitable; just as it's inevitable that, one day, Spurs will actually win a football match.

Although not, apparently, at Stamford Bridge.

There were no major surprises yesterday although we did substantially better on the All Weather than in the National Hunt races, with 5 top rated winners from the 8 races at Kempton and...

3 top rated winners from the 6 races (one of our top rated horses was a non-runner), at Lingfield.

1). Lingfield 13:00 - Our 2nd rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our 3rd rated horse and brought in Marmalad as the new 3rd rated horse. Marmalad went on to come 3rd.

2). Ludlow 13:10 - The race wasn't rated as I could only rate 3 of the 9 runners.

Shinooki was our top rated horse,

Etania was our 2nd rated horse and

Rio Milan was our 3rd rated horse.

Shinooki came second and Rio Milan won the race at 8.0 ISP (8.4 BSP)

3). Catterick 13:20 - The race wasn't rated as I could only rate 6 of the 16 runners.

Top of the Glas was our top rated horse,

Silver Duke was our 2nd rated horse and

Princess Ombu was our 3rd rate horse.

Top of the Glas came third.

4). Lingfield 2:30 – I said (in yesterday’s Morning News) that this was a race to watch out for as… Our top rated horse is Picansort. Now, this is a Class 2 race and the last time Picansort ran, it was in a Class 6 races (and three Class 5 races before that.) He hasn’t run since July; plenty of going wins and places but I’m not so sure that that matters on the All Weather tracks.

However, he has won twice (since I started the ratings in January 2013) at Lingfield, over the same distance and going – once again, I’m not too sure how much CDG matters on the AW.

He is the Jockey’s only ride at Lingfield and the Trainer’s only horse at the meeting. A bit of a conundrum for me; Oddschecker have got him at 10/1 (which gives him a high yield of about 11.4) but I have a feeling that, perhaps, the ratings may have got this one wrong.

By the time that the real ratings were computed, Picansort became our 2nd rated horse and he came 4th (our top rated horse did win the race and our 3rd rated horse came second.)

So, I was sort of right about the ratings being wrong; it does indicate that your betting decisions are best based upon the actual ratings (or, better still, the Live Ratings.)

5). Ludlow 15:10 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The live ratings promoted the 2nd and 3rd rated horses and brought in Mac Bertie as the new 3rd rated horse.

Unfortunately, he didn't come anywhere.

6). Catterick 15:20 - The race wasn't rated as I could only rate 2 of the 9 runners.

After Toniight was our top rated horse and

Danielle's Journey was our 2nd rated horse.

After Toniight won at 7.0 ISP (8.23 BSP) and

Danielle's Journey came second at 2.0 ISP (2.03 BSP.)

7). Kempton 15:50 - Our 2nd rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted the 3rd rated horse and brought in Aevalon as the new 3rd ratd horse.

Unfortunately, he didn't figure in the results.

8). Kempton 16:20 - In this race we so nearly got it right. We got the winner (as our top rated horse) but we got the 2nd and 3rd in the wrong order. And that's a shame as the Trifecta would have paid £55.70.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (and a Chancer's Bet)...

Bankers Bet = AW Seasonal Losers (to win!) - where R4 Status = 1 and where R4 is Greater than Average R4 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 2.5 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 60% and where Position last time out = Unplaced and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 140%

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 14:00:00 - Tenor (1)

Races (over last year): 30 Wins: 17 Strike Rate: 56.67% ROI: 144.51%

Unfortunately,Tenor came second.

Chancers Bet = High Yield UK Bumpers - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Flat and where Country = UK and where RC0 (Good Race/Bad Race) = 1 and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December and the Yield was more than 7

Selection = Back to ISP - Ludlow - 15:40:00 - The Hon Mackinlay (6)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 26.32% ROI: 123.70%

The Hon Mackinlay also lost.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades.

You can take a look at that post here...

I have implemented UPG001. So, from today, there will be options (on the morning email) to download PDF files which show the previously unrated races.

These races will not be incorporated into the daily results until the 1st of January 2015.

If you don't want these PDFs, don't worry about it, they are additional files that you can ignore.


Five meetings today and the day looks a bit more risky than yesterday as the field sizes are higher.

I've just run the test ratings and they look good, with 35 rated races.

In other words, every race has been rated and all that work that I have done to create the new PDFs (showing the unrated races) has been for nothing.

At least, as far as today is concerned.

There really are no stand out races so I'm not going to single any of them out.

Let's hope that we do as well at Kempton as we did yesterday.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards


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