Morning News – 21/07/2021

Good morning...

OK - I freely admit...

As I explained yesterday morning that, I overslept and, thus, started the day well behind my schedule.

I'm not sure why I overslept but the bars in the village square (where I live) were open until very late.

When young French people get drunk they don't go out and nick cars (or, at least, not in my village they don't) or start fights...

They start singing.

And they don't sing the latest Kylie Minogue single,

They tend to sign whatever their Dads or Grandads used to sing 25 to 50 years ago.

It's nice but it doesn't really help me sleep.

I also have to admit that, at lunchtime, I had to give up on work anyway.

I know that you've got a heatwave in the UK (and Ireland, as well - perhaps the rain is a little bit warmer?) but over here it is extremely hot.

I'm stuck between 5 computers and 9 screens - all pumping out heat.

I worked hard until lunchtime but then I gave up.

Then I went to my local PMU (French Betting Shop) for my lunch.

The beauty of the terrasse there is that it's at the end of the lake and gets a bit of breeze on the really hot days.

I had Sausage and Chips; now, I can cook sausage and chips quite well myself but...

It sure tastes an awful lot better if someone else is cooking it for you and, more importantly,

Washing the dishes themselves afterwards!

If you want to find out what a PMU is, you could always read... Why your local PMU ain't you local bookies shop.

Onto the serious stuff...

Some of the work that I did mange to do was to update the results for Place Profits.

This has got a bit out of hand but I now know that if I update the results every day I won't have a day like yesterday, having to update a month's results, in the heat (wearing only my boxers), all in one day.

The results yesterday, for all the services except for the Investment Betting selections, weren't wonderful but...

I have to report them whether they are good or bad.

Today I have booked a table at the new bar next door to me (Beer, Pizza & Ice Cream and, possibly, more beer.)

They've only been open less than a week but you have to book a table in advance - they're that busy.

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R9 Portfolio Results.

Race 1: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.615

Ffos Las - 13:55 - Winter Siege - Place Bet (0.615) - 3rd

Race 2: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.527

Wolverhampton - 14:45 - Tarroob - Win Bet (0.527) - 2nd

Race 3: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.396

Wolverhampton - 15:55 - Raabeh - Place Bet (0.396) - 4th

Race 4: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.439

Ballinrobe - 17:55 - Chelsea's Friend - Place Bet (0.439) - 3rd

Race 5: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.419

Nottingham - 19:15 - Celtic Express - Win Bet (0.699) - 3rd

Nottingham - 19:15 - Celtic Express - Place Bet (0.139) - 3rd

Race 6: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.281

Nottingham - 20:20 - Contrast - Win Bet (0.390) - 3rd

Nottingham - 20:20 - Contrast - Place Bet (0.172) - 3rd

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Advised Bet - 5 points bet on one race.

Race 1 - Ffos Las - 13:35 - Winter Siege (Place Bet) - 5 Points - 3rd (5 points loss)

Bankers Bets - 10 points bet on 2 races.

Race 1 - Ffos Las - 13:35 - Winter Siege (Place Bet) - 5.38 Points - 3rd (5.38 points loss)
Race 2 - Wolverhampton - 14:45 - Tarroob (Win Bet) - 4.61 Points - 2nd (4.61 points loss)

Chancers Bets - 10 points bet on 3 races.

Race 1 - Ffos Las - 13:35 - Winter Siege (Place Bet) - 3.88 Points - 3rd (3.88 points loss)
Race 2 - Wolverhampton - 14:45 - Tarroob (Win Bet) - 3.33 Points - 2nd (3.33 points loss)
Race 4 - Ballinrobe - 17:55 - Chelsea's Friend (Place Bet) - 2.77 Points - 5th (2.77 points loss)

Place Bets - 10 Points bet on top 5 Place selections.

Race 1 - Ffos Las - 13:35 - Winter Siege (Place Bet) - 3.49 Points - 3rd (3.49 points loss)
Race 3 - Wolverhampton - 15:55 - Raabeh (Place Bet) - 2.25 Points - 4th (2.25 points loss)
Race 4 - Ballinrobe - 17:55 - Chelsea's Friend (Place Bet) - 2.49 Points - 5th )2.49 points loss)
Race 5 - Nottingham - 19:15 - Celtic Express (Place Bet) - 0.78 Points - 3rd (0.78 points loss)
Race 6 - Nottingham - 20:20 - Contrast (Place Bet) - 0.977 Points - 3rd (0.977 points loss)

Conclusion...

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Task List...

In order to be honest and truly transparent with you...

I will now be publishing my task list on the Morning News.

You will be able to see what I am working on and, more importantly, what progress I am making.

Here are the current tasks...

T01). Work out a number of strategies to utilise R9 and provide Focus Rating members free Portfolio Betting selections across a number of different betting strategies (win backing, place backing, dutching, laying and, the other thing that I described that I don't know what it is called) on a daily basis.

T02). For Compass Ratings, display, on screen and via a email PDF, the twice weekly updated trainer/jockey win/place strike rates.

T03). For Compass Ratings, complete the eBook that explains all the weird and wonderful things that I have learned about Hong Kong Horse racing.

T04). Complete PaperTradeIt.com - a free site where you can privately log your bets and get Strike Rate, POI (to ISP and BSP) data and losing run analysis on those bets.

I'm trying to knock off the easy/quick jobs first in order to reduce the size of the list; the size of the list scares me sometimes and, believe me, I have twice as many jobs on the Admin/BAU (Business As Usual - things like automated scripts, backups and server log file analysis - stuff that all website owners have to do) task list to get through as well.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.13%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.71%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.71% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 80.04 units returned to 98 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -18.33%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.73 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -16.47%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 40.56 units returned to 35 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 15.89%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 12.75 units returned to 31 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -58.87%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 9 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 44.44%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7.63 units returned to 9 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -15.22%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 9 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 8 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 88.89%

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Investment Betting

There were two Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Ffos Las - 15:05 - Valley Forge - 1st @ 1.36 ISP (1.40 BSP)

Wolverhampton - 17:05 - Ghostly - 1st @ 2.75 ISP ( BSP)

This is what the recent proofed results look like...

Click on the image to see it full size.

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EarlyBird Ratings

There was one Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selection yesterday...

Ffos Las - 13:55 - Whistledown - 2nd

This is what the recent proofed results look like...

Click on the image to see it full size.

Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html

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Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

There are no more Hong Kong horse racing meetings until September.

I shall be speding the summer working on statistics,

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, send me an email.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

Wolverhampton - 16:30 - Bascule - 4th

Ballinrobe - 16:55 - Persia - 2nd

Wolverhampton - 17:05 - Ghostly - 1st @ 2.75 ISP ( BSP)

Chelmsford - 18:05 - Breezyandbright - 4th

Ballinrobe - 18:55 - Bowtie - 5th

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Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

16th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 1 (5 races rated.)

17th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 2 (5 races rated.)

18th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 3 (4 races rated.)

19th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 4 (5 races rated.)

27th March 2021 – Doncaster – 15:10 – Unibet Lincoln – Class 2

New - 10th April – 2021 – Aintree – 17:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase – Class 1

22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Place Profits

Selections - New System

Ffos Las - 15:05 - Valley Forge - 1st @ 1.05
Wolverhampton - 16:30 - Bascule - 4th
Wolverhampton - 17:05 - Ghostly - 1st @ 1st @ 1.51
Nottingham - 19:15 - Celtic Empress - 3rd

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Ffos Las - 15:05 - Valley Forge - 1st @ 1.05

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Ffos Las - 15:05 - Valley Forge - 1st @ 1.05

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

R9 Portfolio Place Selections

Place Bets - 10 Points bet on top 5 Place selections.

Race 1 - Ffos Las - 13:35 - Winter Siege (Place Bet) - 3.49 Points - 3rd (3.49 points loss)

Race 3 - Wolverhampton - 15:55 - Raabeh (Place Bet) - 2.25 Points - 4th (2.25 points loss)

Race 4 - Ballinrobe - 17:55 - Chelsea's Friend (Place Bet) - 2.49 Points - 5th

Race 5 - Nottingham - 19:15 - Celtic Express (Place Bet) - 0.78 Points - 3rd

Race 6 - Nottingham - 20:20 - Contrast (Place Bet) - 0.977 Points - 3rd

I have updated the results (20th July 2021) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.

Click on the image to see it full size.

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Something to make you smile...

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Aunt Karen...

A teacher told her young class to ask their parents for a family story with a moral at the end of it, and to return the next day to tell their stories.

In the classroom the next day, Joe gave his example first, "My dad is a farmer and we have chickens. One day we were taking lots of eggs to market in a basket on the front seat of the truck when we hit a big bump in the road; the basket fell off the seat and all the eggs broke. The moral of the story is not to put all your eggs in one basket."

"Very good," said the teacher.

Next, Mary said, "We are farmers too. We had twenty eggs waiting to hatch, but when they did we only got ten chicks. The moral of this story is not to count your chickens before they're hatched."

"Very good," said the teacher again, very pleased with the responses so far.

Next it was Dave's turn to tell his story: "My dad told me this story about my Aunt Karen.... Aunt Karen was a flight engineer in the war and her plane got hit. She had to bail out over enemy territory and all she had was a bottle of whiskey, a machine gun, and a machete."

"Go on," said the teacher, intrigued.

"Aunt Karen drank the whiskey on the way down to prepare herself. Then she landed right in the middle of a hundred enemy soldiers. She killed seventy of them with the machine gun until she ran out of bullets. Then she killed twenty more with the machete 'til the blade broke. And then she killed the last ten with her bare hands."

"Good heavens," said the horrified teacher, "What did your father say was the moral of that frightening story?"

"Stay away from Aunt Karen when she's been drinking..."

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards