Morning News

Good morning...

Well, whilst the over strike rate suggests a bad day yesterday,

I was watching the results come in and...

I sort of said to myself, "the numbers aren't going to be good but, we're not getting much wrong with the ratings."

I've got to the point where I don't get too stressed about the day to day strike rate any more; I've finally learned that if we have 40% plus days then we have to have bad days to compensate.

The main thing that worries me, these days, is when we get a race totally wrong (like the 19:40 at Doncaster, yesterday.)

When I get to doing R5 I'll be looking at those races and trying to see if there is a pattern there that I can exploit.

After all, even if I can't find a better way of rating those races, if I could predict which races the ratings can't cope with, then I can warn you about them in advance.

Still, having said that, I understand that The Northumberland Plate was a bit of a big race, yesterday; the sort of race that I would know about, if I knew anything about horse racing...

Obviously, our top rated horse obliged and won the race at 8.5 ISP (10.5 BSP) so, regardless of the overall strike rate, it wasn't such a bad day after all.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15.91%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.39%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.67% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 99.54 units returned to 131 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -24.02%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 44 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.41 units returned to 44 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -39.98%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38 units returned to 42 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -9.52%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 35.13 units returned to 45 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -21.93%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Chester 15:05:00 - The CSF paid £11.82

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Newmarket - July 14:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.90

Chester 15:05:00 - The Tricast paid £84.79. The Trifecta paid £170.70

Newcastle 16:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £27.20

Winners

From the 46 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Chester	15:05	Enlace (4)	5.50	6.60
Newcastle	15:45	Quest For More (3)	8.50	10.50
Newmarket - July	16:00	Sound Reflection (2)	7.50	9.40
Curragh	16:45	Sovereign Debt (2)	5.50	6.80
Chester	16:50	Storm Lightning (9)	9.00	11.14
Chester	17:25	Wordiness (10)	7.50	9.43
Curragh	19:15	Silwana (2)	6.00	7.00
Doncaster	20:15	Bahamian Heights (5)	10.00	10.99

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 28 rated races from four meetings.

I don't know what happened to the first race of the day, yesterday.

Both the 5am and 7am test ratings were good so I'm at a loss as to why the normal ratings messed up that race.

Still, today I shall be watching closely and, as a result, the ratings may be a little later than normal.

However, as there are only 4 meetings they will be compiled faster than normal so it should all balance out.

Have a great day's racing!

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The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards