Morning News

Good morning...

A pretty decent start to July...

With a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of just a smidgin under 31%.

And, our new Place Betting Strategy got of to a reasonable start (sort of - there was one erroneous selection) with 2 winners from 5 selections.

July and August are (as far as I can see from a quick look) our best months of the year so I have high hopes for this summer,

Especially as the self learning aspect of the ratings means that we are improving in accuracy all the time.

Today I hope to finish the analysis of the new Place betting strategy for Handicap races and have come up with an additional view of how to handle certain races (handicap or non-handicap.)

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.95%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.23%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.55% from all 44 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 140 units returned to 123 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 13.82%

Top Rated Horse - There were 13 winners from the top rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 34.72 units returned to 42 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -17.33%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.75 units returned to 39 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -46.79%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the third rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 84.53 units returned to 42 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 101.26%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Perth 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £1.70

Worcester 16:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.46

Fairyhouse 17:55:00 - The CSF paid £4.29

Bath 18:05:00 - The CSF paid £3.77

Fairyhouse 20:55:00 - The CSF paid £2.43

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Worcester 17:20:00 - The CSF paid £15.02

Bath 19:05:00 - The CSF paid £5.46

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Perth 14:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.10

Bath 18:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.10

Fairyhouse 20:55:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid €1.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Thirsk 14:00:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £45.40

Thirsk 14:30:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £160.80

Perth 15:10:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £76.30

Bath 18:35:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £20.70

Winners

From the 43 rated races there were 28 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Worcester	14:20	Etania (10)	8.00	9.60
Thirsk	14:30	Edgeoftheforest (6)	26.00	31.88
Perth	15:10	Maggio (1)	15.00	15.69
Thirsk	15:30	Secret City (5)	9.00	9.55
Perth	16:40	Just Awake (1)	5.50	6.54
Fairyhouse	19:25	Three Bells (1)	8.00	9.36
Kempton (AW)	19:45	Mutawathea (1)	5.50	6.29

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet but not a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton (AW) - 18:45:00 - Gold Sands (10)

Races (over last year): 45 Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 48.89% ROI: 137.87% AV SP: 2.82

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £170.40

Gold Sands won at 3.25 ISP (3.50 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Yesterday was the first day of our new place betting strategy.

There was one erroneous selection (it was a handicap race) for which I apologise - I will make sure that this doesn't happen again.

1). Thirsk 14:00 - Popsie's Joy - came 2nd - Betfair paid 2.84 for the place.

2). Worcester 16:20 - Troyan - unplaced.

3). Worcester 16:50 - Minority Interest - shouldn't have been a selection - unplaced.

4). Thirsk 17:00 - Magical Mischief - unplaced.

5). Fairyhouse 18:55 - Future Icon - came 2nd - Betfair paid 5.7 for the place.

So, after one day we are running at a strike rate of 40% (I do wish that I hadn't cocked up the 3rd race) and have had 8.113 points returned to 5 points staked (assuming a Betfair commission of 5%.)

That gives us a profit on investment of 62.26%.

Obviously, one day's results mean nothing in the big scheme of things but it's certainly nice to start off with a winning day.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 47 rated races from seven meetings.

I hope to hammer down the rest of the Place Betting Strategy today but it does sort of depend on how hot it gets. Yesterday was uncomfortably hot and sticky and when you start worrying about that (bearing in mind that I am surrounded by 5 computers, all of which are pumping out more heat), that's when (as we saw yesterday) mistakes occur.

So, it's a bit tempting to download a spreadsheet to my tablet and go and sit on the terrace behind the PMU (where you get the breeze off the lake) and try and get some work done there.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards