Morning News

Good morning

Back to earth yesterday,

After four incredible days.

Nothing to get too worried about as...

We still got a decent strike rate compared to the average strike rate for December last year.

And our Portfolio bet won!

A heavy email day for me yesterday so I didn't manage to get much work done on the upgrades but, before I take about that...

Let's look at yesterday's results.

Yesterday's Results

Nothing stood out for me when I did yesterday's Morning News and, indeed, nothing stood out during the day.

And, as you can see, from the Results, nothing stood out results wise.

Still, our strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 25.81% isn't anything to be ashamed of.

Especially as, last December, we had an average strike rate of 23.03%.

Forecasts

There were three forecasts yesterday.

Leicester 13:30 - The CSF paid £4.48

Leicester 14:05 - The CSF paid £20.50

Kempton 18:15 - The CSF paid £3.35

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 31 rated races there were 21 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - five of those were at decent prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Wincanton	12:35	Chance Encounter	11.0	14.0
Leicester	14:05	Malibu Sun	5.5	5.9
Clonmel	15:25	Jimmy Two Times	5.5	5.7
Kempton	16:15	Pearl Noir	5.5	6.52
Kempton	16:45	Aaranyow	7.0	9.71

Comments...

The day started well..

At 2:20pm were were running at a 42% strike rate.

There were no real shocks during the day.

And, so, I have very little to write about.

1). Wincanton 12:35 - Our 3rd rated horse won at 11.0 ISP (14.0 BSP.)

2). Leicester 13:10 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £4.48.

3). Clonmel 13:50 - Our 2nd rated race was a non-runner. The Live Ratings brought in Pops Well who came second 8.0 ISP (9.1 BSP.)

4). Leicester 14:05 – We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid a rather nice £20.50.

5). Market Rasen 15:30 - Our top rated horse won the race. Our 3rd rated horse was a non-runner and the Live Ratings brought in King Zeal as the new 3rd rated horse. King Zeal came 2nd.

6). Kempton 18:15 - We got the first three horses in the right order in this race. I can't claim the Tricast as there were only 7 runners. The CSF paid £3.35. The Trifecta paid £7.60

7). Kempton 18:45 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our 2nd rated horse to top rated and brought in Kirling as the new 3rd rated horse.

Our new top rated horse came 2nd and our new 3rd rated horse came 3rd.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet)...

Bankers Bet = AW Seasonal Losers (to win!) - where R4 Status = 1 and where R4 is Greater than Average R4 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 2.5 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 60% and where Position last time out = Unplaced and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 140%

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton (AW) - 18:15 - Rock Kristal (1)

Races (over last year): 31 Wins: 17 Strike Rate: 54.84% ROI: 139.84%

Rock Kristal won at 2.0 ISP (2.09 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades.

You can take a look at that post here... http://focusratings.com/articles/winter-upgrades/

As I have mentioned yesterday, I have implemented UPG001. So, there are now options (on the morning email) to download PDF files which show the previously unrated races.

Today I shall be working on the following...

UPG007 – The morning Builder Selections email will be adjusted to show the name of the original publisher of each system. This will help you differentiate your systems from the ones (created by other people) that you have subscribed to.

UPG009 – I’m going to redesign the morning ratings email to make it easier to understand.

Now, the latter upgrade may prove quite confusing to you as the link to your normal download won't be where you expect it to be.

Please bear with me, ultimately this will make the morning email easier to use.

Extra

Now, it's not on the list but I'm thinking about adding a new metric to the ratings.

This will be Course Type - in other words, Left handed, Right Handed, Flat, Uphill, Downhill etc.

Now, I guess that you guys know all this stuff (and were probably born knowing it) but...

It's all new stuff to me.

I am learning (with the kind help of one of the members), though!

To me, the interesting thing would to be being able to produce (and show) a new metric; namely, a horse's historic performance on that Course Type.

So, just as I show a horse's Going Wins and Places, I would also be able to show the horse's past performance (Wins and Places) on Left Handed courses with an undulating surface and an uphill finish (if, indeed, that is the profile of the course that the race is being run on.)

I'm not too sure what that will tell us but it might help to give us the extra edge.

As always, your feedback is invaluable and, whether you think that this is a good idea (or not such a good idea), I'd love to hear what you have to say.

Dutching

I'm going to generate a new spreadsheet today, so that I can continue my investigations into Dutching.

As I'll have to write some come to do this, I'm not too sure how much time I'll have to investigate the ensuing data.

But, don't worry, I haven't forgotten about this part of my work.

Today

Five meetings today and the day looks very similar to yesterday.

I've just run the test ratings and they look good, with 32 rated races.

1). Exeter 14:15 - our top rated horse, Hello George, is top rated by a mile. The market agrees as OddsChecker currently has him as the 2.3 favourite. He is dropping in class and has won on the going.

Nothing else really stands out to me but...

What do I know?

There are some 150% plus top rated horses in the late All Weather races but, after yesterday's disappointing efforts on the All Weather at Kempton (especially compared with Wednesday's results), I don't really want to comment.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards