Morning News

Good morning...

So, our new Place Betting Strategy didn't do so well, yesterday but...

Just look at the strike rate for our top rated horse!

I can't really get too grumpy when we have a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 37.21% and...

Make a profit on investment of 46% by blindly backing that horse.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 37.21%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 36.17%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 113.83 units returned to 134 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -15.05%

Top Rated Horse - There were 16 winners from the top rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 62.83 units returned to 43 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 46.12%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14.5 units returned to 46 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -68.48%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 36.5 units returned to 45 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -18.89%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Tipperary 15:15:00 - The CSF paid £13.59

Salisbury 21:00:00 - The CSF paid £3.58

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Salisbury 21:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.50

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Hamilton 18:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £17.30

Winners

From the 47 rated races there were 25 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 10 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newmarket - July	14:00	Western Reserve (4)	6.50	6.80
Tipperary	14:05	Mrs King (8)	7.00	10.08
Ascot	14:10	Double Up (7)	8.00	9.45
Chester	14:25	Fast Dancer (2)	6.50	8.40
Newmarket - July	14:35	Birchwood (3)	8.00	8.97
Chester	15:00	Dusky Queen (6)	6.00	7.00
Tipperary	15:15	Knoxville Bullet (2)	6.00	6.8
Chester	16:10	Diamond Joel (4)	9.00	10.43
Newmarket - July	16:55	First Selection (1)	6.50	6.80
Chester	17:20	Character Onesie (7)	8.00	10.50

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Irish Logic - where R4 Status = 1 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 4.0 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and where Country = IRE and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner

Selection = Back to ISP - Tipperary - 14:05:00 - From Eden (3)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 41.67% ROI: 389.61% AV SP: 9.35

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £347.50

From Eden came second.

Chancers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Tipperary - 16:25:00 - Bayan (5)

Races (over last year): 25 Wins: 10 Strike Rate: 40.00% ROI: 264.00AV SP: 6.60

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £410.00

Bayan was a non-runner.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Yesterday

Tipperary 14:05 - Berlios- unplaced

Tipperary 15:15 - Well Done Me - unplaced

York 16:00 - Novinophobia - unplaced

Newmarket - - July 16:20 Norse Magic - unplaced

Tipperary 17:35 - Pilgrim Way - unplaced

Salisbury 18:00 - Alabaaly - unplaced

Friday

1). Ascot 13:55 - Dawaa - non runner

2). Cork 17:50 - Isabellesprincess - came second - Betfair paid 1.85 for the place.

3). Chester 18:45 - Auxilliary - won - Betfair paid 2.16 for the place

4). Cork 19:20 - Hard Fought - came third - Betfair paid 7.16 for the place.

After ten days we are running at a strike rate of 36.84% (14 winners from 38 selections) and have had 44.636 points returned to 38 points staked (assuming a Betfair commission of 5%.)

So, in ten days we've made 17.46% profit on our stakes.

We've only had one really bad day (yesterday) and I'm now (having had a nice, calming paddle) more interested in the monthly (rather than the day to day) results.

LTO

Now, John V has asked me to include the days since last time out on the new PDF (option 21 on the morning email.)

I've done so and, whilst I have a lot of faith in LTO as a metric, everyone else seems to do so as well.

Thus, if a horse hasn't run for 280 days, the market (the punters, in other words) won't back it and, as a result, the price will be high.

There is value in that.

My maths shows me that, by filtering by LTO, you do get a better strike rate but, long term, you make less money.

ROI

The ever faithful Neil B. (and a few others) have suggested that we ignore odds on selections.

I haven't done the maths but it does make sense to me.

I can't show the live prices on the PDF but I will try to show my forecast price and leave it up to you to decide if you want to ignore the lower priced selections.

Speed Ratings

Today will largely be spent working on the Speed Ratings.

I need to move the calculations to an overnight job.

This will mean that you'll get your ratings (and System Selections and Portfolio Bets) earlier.

It's a bit of a task for me and I'll probably get it all horribly wrong!

But, I will make it happen and, once I've done that, I'll be able to direct Sherlock (and Holmes - my two new analysis programs) to do their work on those numbers.

The added bonus is that it will allow the ratings (and everything else) to be published about 20 minutes earlier.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards