Morning News

Good morning...

A poor day for the Place Betting Strategy and a couple of you have now suggested that we drop some of the lower confidence 3rd rated horses.

I've got some analysis to do on this but I'm taking a longer term view as a single week isn't statistically significant when viewed against the 98 weeks of the test data.

However, we might not have done well with the Place Betting Strategy but...

A strike rate of 44.74% for our top rated horse is pretty comforting.

And, that you could have made a profit (albeit a small one) by blindly doing the forecast in every race adds to that comfort factor.

Obviously, if you had done a £1 reverse forecast in every eligible race, you would have had £124.49 returned to £74.00 staked.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 44.74%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 42.5%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 41.46% from all 41 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 98.94 units returned to 113 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -12.44%

Top Rated Horse - There were 17 winners from the top rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 50.69 units returned to 38 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 33.39%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.75 units returned to 37 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -11.49%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.5 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -59.21%

Forecasts

There were 7 forecasts yesterday.

Uttoxeter 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £6.62

Lingfield 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £7.39

Lingfield 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £3.15

Uttoxeter 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.24

Lingfield 15:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.30

Sandown 20:15:00 - The CSF paid £15.08

Sandown 20:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.90

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield 13:40:00 - The CSF paid £22.08

Uttoxeter 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £23.08

Sandown 18:35:00 - The CSF paid £23.07

Worcester 21:10:00 - The CSF paid £12.58

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Lingfield 15:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.50

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Sandown 18:35:00 - The Tricast paid £118.34 - The Trifecta paid £25.10

Winners

From the 40 rated races there were 26 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Uttoxeter	14:50	Are They Your Own (1)	9.00	11.00
Catterick	15:00	Perfect Peak (5)	8.50	9.80
Catterick	16:00	Signore Piccolo (1)	9.00	11.01
Catterick	17:00	Dhaular Dhar (3)	8.00	9.26

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Irish Logic - where R4 Status = 1 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 4.0 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and where Country = IRE and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner

Selection = Back to ISP - Killarney - 17:40:00 - Creative Talent (6)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 41.67% ROI: 389.61% AV SP: 9.35

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £347.50

Creative Talent came seventh.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Lingfield 13:40 - Big Sky - unplaced

Lingfield 14:10 - Sunny Spirit - came fourth

Uttoxeter 14:20 - Paddocks Lounge - came 2nd - Betfair paid 2.02 for the place.

Lingfield 16:10 - Burning Desire - unplaced

Killarney 17:40 - Akiliyna - unplaced

Worcester 17:50 - Street Entertainer - non runner

Sandown 19:10 - Invigorate - unplaced

Worcester 19:30 - Alottarain - came fourth

Killarney 19:55 - Soteira - unplaced

Worcester 20:35 - Magheral Express - came 2nd - Betfair paid 2.23 for the place.

After fourteen days we are running at a strike rate of 33.33% (19 winners from 57 selections) and have had 57.784 points returned to 57 points staked (assuming a Betfair commission of 5%.)

So, after fourteen days we've made 1.37% profit on our stakes.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 49 rated races from seven meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

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The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards