Morning News

Good morning...

A reasonable strike rate but...

I was a bit disappointed that we got the Wetherby's Super Sprint totally wrong.

However, our Place Betting Strategy did give us 5 wins from the 7 selections..

Which is a strike rate so amazing that I'm not even going to work it out.

It gave us 17.4515 points returned to 7 points staked (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

Which sort of makes up for the less than stellar performance over the last week.

Oh, our Bankers bet won as well (and at a pretty decent price.)

And, as an aside, if you had blindly done the Trifecta in every race, you'd have had £93.50 returned for your £58.00 staked.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.86%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.19%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.28% from all 116 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 122.79 units returned to 175 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -29.83%

Top Rated Horse - There were 15 winners from the top rated horses from 58 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 49.57 units returned to 58 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -14.53%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the second rated horses from 59 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 48.92 units returned to 59 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -17.08%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 58 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.3 units returned to 58 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -58.1%

Forecasts

There were 6 forecasts yesterday.

Newmarket - July 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £3.65

Market Rasen 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £13.61

Cartmel 14:05:00 - The CSF paid £6.99

Chester 13:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.60

Lingfield 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £8.74

Curragh 18:55:00 - The CSF paid £8.03

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Newmarket - July 17:10:00 - Only 2 runners so, no Forecast

Chester 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £5.70

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Cartmel 14:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £12.90

Chester 13:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £7.40

Curragh 18:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £73.20

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 5 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chester 17:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £18.20

Chester 16:45:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £12.80

Ripon 16:30:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £33.00

Ripon 14:45:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £38.30

Haydock 19:55:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £3.00

Winners

From the 62 rated races there were 31 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Cartmel	17:30	Chilly Miss (4)	5.50	6.66
Cartmel	17:00	Kilfinichen Bay (9)	6.00	6.51
Curragh	15:40	Have A Nice Day (4)	7.00	7.22
Newbury	13:25	Heartless (9)	6.50	8.32
Lingfield	18:10	Nucky Thompson (9)	11.00	12.00
Lingfield (AW)	20:40	May Queen (1)	5.50	7.8

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Market Rasen - 16:05:00 - Dire Straits (1)

Races (over last year): 25 Wins: 10 Strike Rate: 40.00% ROI: 264.00% AV SP: 6.60

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £410.00

Dire Straits did the decent thing and won at 4.5 ISP (5.18 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Newbury 13:25 - Leonardo - didn't place (don't worry - things get better in a hurry.)

Market Rasen 13:45 - Londonia - came 3rd - Betfair paid 3.1 for the place

Ripon 14:45 - Crombay - came 2nd - Betfair paid 4.3 for the place

Newmarket 16:00 - Singapore Dream - didn't place (don't worry - just a blip.)

Lingfield 18:10 - Nucky Thompson - came 1st - Betfair paid 2.84 for the place

Lingfield 18:40 - The Burnham Mare - came 2nd - Betfair paid 2.4 for the place

Curragh 18:55 - Secundos Out - came 3rd - Betfair paid 5.73 for the place

That gives us 17.4515 points returned to 7 points staked (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

After seventeen days we are running at a strike rate of 37.33% (28 winners from 75 selections) and have had 86.483 points returned to 75 points staked (assuming a Betfair commission of 5%.)

So, after seventeen days we've made 15.31% profit on our stakes.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 33 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards