Morning News

Good morning...

Well,

The strike rate for the top rated horse may have been one of the lowest that I can remember but...

Strangely enough...

You would have made a profit had you blindly backed every top three rated horse in every race yesterday.

That's largely due to the 2nd rated horses doing well.

And if you had done the forecast in all 31 races, yesterday, you would have made a profit 43% on your stakes.

Actually, if you had done the reverse forecast in every race (at £1 stakes), you would have had £130.39 returned for the £62 staked.

You'd have doubled your money (and a bit), in other words.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 12.9%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 12.12%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.29% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 91.37 units returned to 91 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 0.41%

Top Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the top rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.5 units returned to 31 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.87%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.37 units returned to 31 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 49.58%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.5 units returned to 29 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -15.52%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Ayr 16:40:00 - The CSF paid £44.32

Reverse Forecasts

There were 5 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Cartmel 14:45:00 - The CSF paid £17.92

Beverley 18:10:00 - The CSF paid £7.85

Windsor 18:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.35

Ballinrobe 18:30:00 - The CSF paid £3.82

Windsor 19:50:00 - The CSF paid £53.13

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination trifecta yesterday.

Beverley 20:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £55.10

Winners

From the 34 rated races there were 15 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Cartmel	15:20	Rev Up Ruby (1)	7.50	9.60
Ayr	16:10	Advance (6)	5.50	5.56
Ayr	16:40	Get Knotted (12)	10.00	12.50
Beverley	18:10	Bond Bombshell (3)	7.00	13.72
Windsor	18:50	Smartie Artie (2)	15.00	19.62
Windsor	19:50	Slip Sliding Away (4)	7.00	9.01
Beverley	20:10	Yorkindred Spirit (5)	11.00	11.69
Beverley	20:40	King Of The Celts (2)	5.50	6.32

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Sunday

Redcar 14:00:00 - Bassett Bleu - Unplaced
Stratford 14:10:00 - Quadriller - Unplaced
Tipperary 14:25:00 - Little Jimmy Brown -2nd - Befair paid 2.38 for the place
Curragh 14:35:00 - Kilteery Pier - Unplaced
Curragh 17:20:00 - Alertness - Unplaced
Stratford 17:25:00 - Chosen Destiny - Unplaced

Monday

Cartmel 14:10:00 - Tokyo Brown - Unplaced
Beverley 18:10:00 - Belledesert -Unplaced
Windsor 18:20:00 - Tulip Dress Unplaced
Windsor 18:50:00 - Smartie Artie - 1st - Betfair paid 4.4 for the place
Ballinrobe 21:00:00 - Tetraites - Unplaced

Summary

I have created a spreadsheet of all of the results and it may be found at... PBSJuly.xls

Initial analysis shows the following...

1). After 20 days we have made a profit of 9.14545 units from 95 units staked (assuming a Betfair commission of 5%.)

2). This gives us a profit on investment of 9.63%. Now that might not sound so much but if we were betting to £5 stakes then that's worth about £45.73 in just under three weeks. That's your monthly subscription paid (assuming that you pay £27 plus VAT) and about £14.33 left over for a takeaway.

3). The longest losing run has been three days. We've also had two losing runs of two days. Now, I don't know if this is good or bad for a betting strategy but I'm quite comfortable with it.

4). I've sorted out a couple of errors in the previously published results; there was one horse that came third but in a 6 horse race. I mistakenly marked it as a good result. I'd missed a non-runner in another race (and marked it as a loss.)

5). We've only dipped into the negative (as far as profits are concerned) once in the last 20 days.

6). Our Daily Strike Rate is 10 winning days from 20 betting days.

7). Our Actual Strike Rate is 33 wins from 95 bets. That equates to a strike rate of 36.84%.

I'll be updating the spreadsheet every week and will do a summary at the end of the month.

To make things real, I'll assume an initial betting bank of £500 and stakes of 1% of the bank.

At the end of every month, I'll take half the profits and leave the other half in and raise the stakes proportionally.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 35 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards