Morning News – 24-09-2021

Good morning...

I do think that...

I have come up with a sensible filter for the selections based upon the Focus Ratings R9 ratings.

I have a spreadsheet containing the top rated and second rated horses in the R9 rated races over the last 5 years.

There are Pivot Tables which show the performance of those horses over the last 5 years.

Now, there are some race types (let's take Class 5 non-handicap Novice Hurdles as an example) where there have been hundreds of races over the last 5 years.

But, there are also some race types (such as Class 2 non-handicap All Weather Listed) where the might only have been 10 races over the last 5 years.

Now, for the latter, there really isn't enough data to make those selections valid.

So, what I am doing is only choosing those races where I have had at least 50 races over the last 5 years to base my selections on.

For the One Win Bet Of The Day I am seeing a marked improvement in strike rate.

For the Place Bet Of The Day I am also seeing an improvement in strike rate but the prices aren't being affected.

This is good news as those Place Bets are already profitable and...

By improving the strike rate from 66% to about 72% they become even more profitable.

And that has got to be good news for us.

It is going to take me a few days for me to go back through the historical data so I probably won't have a final answer until Monday.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Task List...

In order to be honest and truly transparent with you...

I will now be publishing my task list on the Morning News.

You will be able to see what I am working on and, more importantly, what progress I am making.

Here are the current tasks...

T01). Work out a number of strategies to utilise R9 and provide Focus Rating members free Portfolio Betting selections across a number of different betting strategies (win backing, place backing, dutching, laying and,
the other thing that I described that I don't know what it is called) on a daily basis.

T02). For Compass Ratings, display, on screen and via a email PDF, the twice weekly updated trainer/jockey win/place strike rates.

T03). For Compass Ratings, complete the eBook that explains all the weird and wonderful things that I have learned about Hong Kong Horse racing.

T04). Complete PaperTradeIt.com - a free site where you can privately log your bets and get Strike Rate, POI (to ISP and BSP) data and losing run analysis on those bets.

I'm trying to knock off the easy/quick jobs first in order to reduce the size of the list; the size of the list scares me sometimes and, believe me, I have twice as many jobs on the Admin/BAU (Business As Usual - things like automated scripts, backups and server log file analysis - stuff that all website owners have to do) task list to get through as well.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 38.24%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 40.54%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 36.84% from all 38 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 79.66 units returned to 99 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -19.54%

Top Rated Horse - There were 13 winners from the top rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 53.4 units returned to 34 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 57.06%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.88 units returned to 31 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -77.81%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.38 units returned to 34 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -43%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 11 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 45.45%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14.19 units returned to 11 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 29%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 11 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 54.55%

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Investment Betting

There were four Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Newmarket - 13:00 - Dawn Of Liberation - 2nd

Pontefract - 13:45 - Eldrickjones - 1st @ 1.15 ISP (1.18 BSP)

Perth - 14:30 - Roi De Dubai - NR

Perth - 15:05 - Clondaw Hollow - 1st @ 2.25 ISP (2.40 BSP)

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were no Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections yesterday...

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html

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Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

The ratings for Sunday's meeting at Happy Valley will be sent out this morning.

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, send me an email.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were two selections yesterday.

1.25 - Perth - It's Good To Laugh - 1st @ 2.25 ISP (2.27 BSP)
3.05 - Perth - Clondaw Hollow - 1st @ 2.25 ISP (2.40 BSP)

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Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

18th September 2021 – Ayr Gold Cup (+ 2 other races)

24th September 2021 – Joel Stakes (+ 1 other race)

24th September 2021 – Juddmonte Stakes (+ 5 other races)

26th September 2021 – Loughbrown Stakes

2nd October 2021 – Tattersalls October Auction Stakes

3rd October April 2021 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

8th October 2021 – bet365 Fillies Mile

9th October 2021 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes

16th October 2021 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (+ 4 other races)

23rd October 2021 – Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Place Profits

Selections - New System

Pontefract - 13:45 - Eldrickjones - 1st @ 1.04
Perth - 14:30 - Roi De Dubai - 1st @ 1.19
Pontefract - 15:30 - Mutanaaseq - 6th
Pontefract - 16:05 - Modular Magic - 6th

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Newmarket - 13:00 - Dawn Of Liberation - 2nd @ 1.23
Pontefract - 13:45 - Eldrickjones - 1st @ 1.04
Perth - 15:05 - Clondaw Hollow - 1st @ 1.19

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Pontefract - 13:45 - Eldrickjones - 1st @ 1.04
Perth - 15:05 - Clondaw Hollow - 1st @ 1.19

Original System (200% Confidence.)

Pontefract - 13:45 - Eldrickjones - 1st @ 1.04

R9 Portfolio Place Selections

Place Bets - 10 points bet on top 5 place selections.

Race 1 - Newmarket - 14:10 - Gale Force Maya (Place Bet) - 3.10 Points - 1st @ 1.93
Race 2 - Pontefract - 15:30 - Mutaraaseq (Place Bet) - 4.42 Points - 6th
Race 3 - Listowel - 16:05 - Modular Magic (Place Bet) - 2.18 Points - 6th

Place Bet Of The Day - 1 point bet on top place selection.

Race 2 - Pontefract - 15:30 - Mutaraaseq (Place Bet) - 1 Point - 6th

I have updated the results (13th September 2021) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.

Click on the image to see it full size.

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Something to make you smile...

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C-141...

A US Air Force C-141 was scheduled to leave Thule Air Base, Greenland at midnight. During the pilot's preflight check, he discovered that the aircraft's latrine holding tank was still full from the last flight. So a message was sent to the base, and an airman who was off duty is called out to take care of it.

The young man finally got to the air base and made his way to the aircraft, only to find that the latrine pump truck had been left outdoors and was frozen solid, so he had to find another one in the hangar, which takes even more time. He returned to the aircraft and was less than enthusiastic about what he had to do. Nevertheless, he went about the pumping job deliberately and carefully (and slowly) so as to not risk criticism later.

As he's left the plane, the pilot stopped him and said, "Son, your attitude and performance has caused this flight to be late, and I'm going to personally see to it that you are not just reprimanded, but punished."

Shivering in the cold, his task finished, the airman took a deep breath, stood up tall and said, "Sir, with all due respect, I'm not your son; I'm an Airman in the United States Air Force. I've been in Thule, Greenland for 11 months without any leave, and the reindeer are beginning to look pretty good to me. I have one stripe, it's two-thirty in the morning, the temperature is 40 degrees below zero and my job here is to pump sh*t from your aircraft. Now just exactly what form of punishment did you have in mind?"

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards