Morning News

Good morning...

A bigger than normal Morning News today but...

As I've told Jill on a number of occasions,

Size doesn't really matter!

So, a big day for me today; I have a major upgrade scheduled - it only affects the Speed Ratings so you shouldn't be too worried about the normal ratings.

Anyway, it's my job to be worried about things like that.

I need to get the Speed Ratings stuff relocated to 4am rather than 9am - it's either going to be easy or it'll be a nightmare but I do think that it's going to be far easier than I initially thought.

Anyway, I've prepared everything for every contingency.

And, if I get it all right...

It'll mean that you get your ratings about 40 minutes earlier and..,

If you do Ante Bet stuff, you'll be able to check out a horse's speed ratings weeks before the race.

So, I guess that it'll be worthwhile.

If all works well then I'll be taking Friday off and getting on my pushbike to cycle the 20km to one of the best Crêperies in Brittany to enjoy a nice pig's bottom Gallette (a sort of savoury pancake.)

If I survive the cycle ride (everywhere is uphill over here - going there and coming back) then I'll be doing a Morning News post on Saturday morning.

And, if not (and I die of a stroke or heart attack en-route), well... it's been nice knowing you.

Anyway, enough of that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.88%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.71%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.67% from all 42 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 126.05 units returned to 99 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 27.32%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.05 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -12.34%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.38 units returned to 33 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -29.15%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the third rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 74.62 units returned to 34 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 119.47%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Chepstow 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £4.00

Chepstow 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £15.32

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Brighton 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £11.13

Pontefract 15:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.78

Kempton (AW) 19:40:00 - The CSF paid £13.39

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 6 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Brighton 13:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £83.90

Pontefract 15:10:00 - The Tricast paid £236.48 - The Trifecta paid £36.00

Pontefract 15:40:00 - The Tricast paid £9.13 - The Trifecta paid £10.80

Newcastle 17:50:00 - The Tricast paid £295.87 - The Trifecta paid £489.00

Kempton (AW) 18:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £47.40

Kempton (AW) 19:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £14.40

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 24 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Brighton	13:50	Ojai (5)	17.00	24.00
Brighton	14:20	Mansfield (3)	11.00	12.00
Pontefract	15:10	Guaracha (3)	8.00	9.28
Chepstow	16:00	Swendab (1)	7.00	8.60
Brighton	16:50	Essaka (3)	7.00	7.75
Pontefract	17:10	Secret Glance (8)	6.00	7.37
Newcastle	17:50	Ambitious Icarus (3)	9.00	9.96
Kempton (AW)	20:40	Windy Citi (5)	9.00	11.12

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Builder Send CSV

I have added another button to the Builder.

This is on the menu at the bottom of the screen where you would normally choose your Bet Type.

This button allows you to have a CSV file emailed to you listing all selections that your system has generated.

Currently this only works for the following Bet Types...

Bet to Bookmaker's ISP

Lay to Betfair BSP and

Lay to Betfair Liability.

For the first two options it assumes a stake of £10.

For the Lay to Betfair Liability it assumes a Liability of £50.

PBS Considerations

Yesterday, one of the members who always has interesting things to say (thanks, Dave) said something very interesting to me about the PBS selections.

You see, one of the rules of the New PBS strategy is to not bet on odds on selections.

However, I have to report on them as I don't know what price you got on at.

You might have been matched at 2.2 but the horse actually starts the race at 1.8.

And when I produce the PBS selections I have no idea what the BFPP is going to be.

I guess that the most honest thing to do would be for me to add another couple of columns to the spreadsheet to show the results assuming that you could peer into the future and see what the BFPP was actually going to be.

Having said that, if you could peer into the future, you'd probably be busy noting down the names of the winning horses and wouldn't need Focus Ratings at all.

My Philosophy

I couldn't do too much work yesterday as I didn't want to introduce too many variables before today's scheduled work on the Speed Ratings.

I've been putting off today's work for the last 2 months and really do need to get it out of the way (even if it scares the bejeesus out of me!)

So, I spent some time going back through some of the outstanding emails in my massive email backlog.

Now, sometimes we get emails from new members which say something like... "I've backed all of your top three rated horses in every race for the last week and I've lost a bl**dy fortune! Please unsubscribe me straightaway and give me a refund!"

We don't get too many of those sorts of emails, to be honest, and I let Jill deal with them and don't get involved or upset myself.

Still, it's probably time for me to reiterate that...

I produce a ratings service and not a tipping service.

To be honest, I could easily turn Focus Ratings into a tipping service.

We had 42 rated races yesterday and I could write some code to choose the potentially three best races from those 42 races.

Thus, instant Tipping Service.

However, I like the challenge of trying to predict the horse that's going to come second, the horse that's going to come third and, of course, the horse that is going to win.

As an example, if you look at yesterday's results...

I am far happier with the results from the 16:40 at Pontefract (as I got the 2nd and 3rd places right) than I am with the results form the next race, the 16:50 at Brighton, where I got the 2nd placed horse right but the 3rd rated horse actually won.

We may actually got a winner at Brighton but...

I predicted that that horse would come third - not such a good result for me.

Good News

I've got some good news to share and I really like sharing good news!

Barry sent me an email, yesterday, to share his good news.

Below is the screenshot.

Now, I'm not sure that I could be bothered to bet £2 just to win £175

Who am I kidding? Of course I'd do that bet - do you know how much Red Wine and Smelly Cheese £175 would buy?

And, on Tuesday, Chris sent me this email...

Hi Keith, I did the double with sky bet today, £7 place double returned £82.69, so a profit of £75.69 which I didn't think too shabby! Cheers Chris.

And I have to agree - that's not too shabby at all!

In my world that's about 6 bottles of Chateauneuf du Papes and a fridge load of smelly cheese!

Something to make you chuckle

Many, many thanks to Dave O. for this joke.

A funeral procession pulled into a cemetery. Several carloads of family members followed a black truck towing a boat with a coffin in it.

A passer-by remarked, "That guy must have been a very avid fisherman.”

"Oh, he still is," remarked one of the mourners. "As a matter of fact, he's headed off to the

lake as soon as we bury his wife.”

I do have to say...

That's me down to a tee!

And an official warning...

The British Border Agency is asking UK citizens to be on the lookout for a red 1951 Chevy that they suspect is being used to smuggle illegal immigrants from Calais to Dover , through the Channel Tunnel.

If you see the vehicle pictured below, and have reason to believe that it is the suspect vehicle, please contact your local police station.....urgently.

Now, I do have to say that I feel really sorry for the pain and the misery that illegal immigrants have to go through in order to get a better life. But, I don't live in the UK and, thus, can't comment on the politics.

Personally, though, if I found 12 illegal immigrants who had the nouse to walk a Chevvy into the UK, then I'd welcome them - they're probably the Richard Bransons or Alan Sugars of tomorrow!

Place Betting Strategy

Chepstow 14:00:00 - Break Free - Unplaced

Newcastle 17:20:00 - My Valentino - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 2 points on the day and have made a profit of 0.4715 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.034 points on the day and have made a profit of 3.78324 points for August.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 54 rated races from eight meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards