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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, I really don't know what to say about yesterday.

If the racing had finished after the first page of the ratings (we had six rated races on the first page of the normal ratings), I'd have been a very happy man!

I do have to say that I have this funny feeling that the ratings are more accurate for the earlier races; I really need to look into that.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15.79%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.07% from all 41 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 75.7 units returned to 111 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -31.8%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.15 units returned to 38 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -52.24%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.8 units returned to 35 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -9.14%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25.75 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -32.24%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Newton Abbot 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £19.23

Beverley 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £11.74

Bath 19:20:00 - The CSF paid £9.09

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Salisbury 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.95

Bath 19:50:00 - The CSF paid £16.85

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Newton Abbot 14:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £89.10

Beverley 15:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £30.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Bath 18:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £8.30

Winners

From the 40 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Beverley 14:00 Laylas Hero (6) 8.50 9.26
Kempton (AW) 18:10 Indigo (2) 13.00 18.29
Gowran Park 18:30 Easter (6) 6.00 7.00

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Gowran Park - 17:30:00 - London (7)

Races (over last year): 24 Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 45.83% ROI: 136.12% AV SP: 2.97

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £86.70

London came third.

Chancers Bet = Flat Claimers - big priced boys - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Claimer and Horse = Male (Stallion, Colt or Gelding) and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 3

Selection = Back to ISP - Beverley - 14:00:00 - Victoire De Lyphar (7)

Races (over last year): 24 Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 33.33% ROI: 123.32AV SP: 3.70

Victoire de Lyphar came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Salisbury 14:20:00 - Zapped - Unplaced
Newton Abbot 15:45:00 - My Legal Lady - Unplaced
Gowran Park 20:30:00 - Miss Youngs - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 3 points on the day and have made a profit of 2.999 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 4.068 points on the day and have made a profit of 0.072885 points for August.

Something to think about...

Back to the Bad Races thing that I mentioned a few days ago.

I'd like to reproduce an email that I got from a client yesterday (and my response)...

The email was as follows...

Morning Keith,

You mentioned that some of the races you do are "bad" races where you don't really work it out. Which are those bad races? Are they a particular type?

thanks

T***

And my response was...

Hi T***

I am currently working on the analysis of the "Bad Races" but won't be finished until the weekend.

What I am trying to do is to identify those races, such as the 17:20 at Newton Abbot today, where we didn't get any places.

If there is a mathematically provable trend then I could identify these races in advance and forewarn my clients.

However, it's quite a lot of work for me to do in order to prepare the analysis.

I need to write a program to list all races where we got no result (not even a place) and then compare those results with all races over the last 2 years.

And that's another program that I'll have to write.

I have a feeling that I will come up with some rules as to which races to avoid but, until the analysis is complete, I can't offer any guarantees.

My instinctive feeling are that Amateur Races and Conditional Stakes races should be avoided but...

I really need to do the maths first.

I hope to have a solution over the weekend.

Obviously, this will help Backers to know which races to avoid but it'll also help Layers to identify races to concentrate on.

However, I have announced that I shall start reporting on the "Bad Races" each day as well as the ones that we got the Tricast or the Forecast in so..

As often happens at Focus Ratings,

It'll be the clients who come up with (and suggest) a possible strategy.

All the best

Keith

P.S. In order to keep clients informed, I'd like to publish your question and my response in tomorrow's Morning News. Do you mind? I won't use your real name or email address.

T*** gave me the go-ahead to publish his email and this is my reply...

Thanks T***

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if one (or more) of the members comes up with a solution.

Actually, it's feedback from the members that generates most of my workload.

Still, I am not complaining!

If we could take a day like today (with 40 rated races) and then cut it down to 20 or 30 "Decent" races, think about how much more profits we might make?

And it works both ways - it's good for the Backers and it'll be good for the Layers too.

All the best

Keith

So, perhaps this is something to think about.

Any ideas that you already have, I'd love to hear them.

I've got a pretty busy day, today and am out all day tomorrow (thus there will be no Morning News tomorrow) but I'll dive in and try to get some sort of theory hacked out over the weekend.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 48 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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