Morning News

Good morning...

I'm going to keep this quick as it's a bank holiday here in France.

However, yesterday (and Thursday) were both pretty decent days.

One of the many tasks that I have to fit in this weekend is to analyse the results according to which page of the ratings they are from.

A number of people have commented that we seem to do better on the earlier races and there could be sound reasons for that.

Today I shall be trying to quantify that.

I don't see this as a strategy in itself, although...

I can't count the days that we've been blindly profitable backing the top three rated horses for the first page of the the ratings.

Perhaps I should go back and count them;

Perhaps there is a mini dutching strategy there.

I rather see this as an extra thing to take into account and perhaps improve your existing systems and strategies.

As a test, I shall be applying any results that I find to our PBS strategy.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.41%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.32%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.83% from all 41 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 100.77 units returned to 103 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -2.17%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38.39 units returned to 34 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 12.91%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 36 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 55.13 units returned to 36 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 53.14%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7.25 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -78.03%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Newcastle 15:35:00 - The CSF paid £8.37

Newcastle 16:40:00 - The CSF paid £7.10

Newbury 17:35:00 - The CSF paid £27.93

Catterick 19:45:00 - The CSF paid £26.52

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Nottingham 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £27.99

Newbury 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £33.45

Newmarket - July 17:30:00 - The CSF paid £5.62

Newmarket - July 18:30:00 - The CSF paid £6.70

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Newbury 17:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £43.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Catterick 17:40:00 - The Tricast paid £88.10 - The Trifecta paid £81.80

Newmarket - July 20:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.60

Winners

From the 38 rated races there were 20 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Nottingham	14:40	Captain Scooby (5)	6.50	8.42
Newbury	15:20	Satellite (9)	6.00	6.82
Newcastle	17:10	Mission Impossible (3)	19.00	36.00
Catterick	17:40	Tapis Libre (1)	8.00	8.80
Catterick	19:45	Eland Ally (5)	7.00	7.57

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Thursday 13th August

Fontwell 13:45:00 - Noble Friend - Unplaced
Beverley 15:05:00 - Harmonic Wave - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.56 for the place.
Ffos Las 17:00:00 - Touch of Color - Unplaced
Lingfield 17:15:00 - Stormflower - 1st - Betfair paid 1.42 for the place.
Tramore 17:40:00 - Bacalaureate - Unplaced
Tramore 19:10:00 - Chakisto - NR
Leopardstown 20:25:00 - Walkingonmoonbeams - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 3.069 points on the day and have made a loss of 0.07 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 3.436782 points on the day and have made a loss of 3.363897 points for August.

Friday 14th August

Nottingham 14:10:00 - Hellvelyn Winds - Unplaced
Newcastle 14:30:00 - Croft Ranger -NR
Newcastle 16:10:00 - Celtic Power - Unplaced
Newmarket 18:30:00 - Ritasun - Unplaced
Tramore 18:50:00 - Barbalicious - 2nd - Betfair paid 3.56 for the place.
Tramore 20:25:00 - Walk to Fame - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 1.568 points on the day and have made a loss of 1.638 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.419104 points on the day and have made a loss of 5.783001 points for August.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 47 rated races from seven meetings.

Over the weekend I shall be looking at the Page Ranking which will show (or not) the variance of the accuracy of the ratings dependant on the page of the ratings.

I shall also be trying to catch up on all the other things that I have been working on.

As a result, I shall be switching off my email after the ratings have gone out; it's too much of a distraction while I'm working.

Next week I shall be tying up any loose ends and then will be able to take a few weeks off as a summer break.

I'll be around each day until the ratings go out (in other words, I shall be working from 4am to 10am UK time)...

The rest of the day will largely be spent fishing, mushrooming, building sandcastles and eating.

At least until Wine O'Clock turns up!

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards