Morning News

Good morning ladies and gentlemen...

Another very quiet day, yesterday but, in way, that was good for me as it allowed me to crack on with my work.

Today, I want to talk to you, a little bit, about my new Speed Ratings and...

I also want to talk to you about my Winter Upgrades.

So...

All in all,

A bit to natter about today!

But first, let's look at yesterday's results.

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate of 25.0%.

Although not such a wonderful strike rate, I'm pretty cool with it as, last December, we had an average strike rate of 23.03%.

Forecasts

There were only two forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield 14:00- The CSF paid £13.77

Lingfield 14:30 - The CSF paid £5.01

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 20 rated races there were 12 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - only one of those was at a decent price.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Mussleburgh	14:20	Waltz Darling	15.0	16.49

Comments...

There is not much that I can really say about yesterday;

It was a pretty nondescript day with 2 All Weather meetings and a pretty unimportant meeting at Mussleburgh.

1). Lingfield 12:30 - We got the top three, unfortunately not in the right order.

2). Lingfield 13:00 - We got the top three, unfortunately not in the right order.

3). Lingfield 14:00 - We got the forecast. The CSF paid £13.77

4). Lingfield 14:30 - We got the forecast. The CSF paid £5.01

5). Mussleburgh 14:50 - We got the top three, unfortunately not in the right order.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but not a Chancer's Bet)

Our Banker's Bet was....

Bankers Bet = Bumper Drops! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Flat and where RC0 (Good Race/Bad Race) = 1 and Horse has dropped 1 Class

Selection = Back to ISP - Musselburgh - 15:20:00 - Palermo Don (2)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 36.84% ROI: 152.15% AV SP: 4.13%

Unfortunately, Palermo Don didn't feature.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades - you can see it here... Winter Upgrades

I am updating that post to show which upgrades have been implemented and, where possible, to indicate when I think that an upgrade may be implemented.

So, to quickly summarise yesterday's work...

UPG006 – The Members page will be redesigned to make it easier to use. I shall also paginate the part of the page that shows your systems so that it loads faster.

This has now been done. Those of you who had problems getting into the Members Page or the Proofing Page should find that it all works now.

You should note that the Systems and Alerts Page and the Proofing Page now have pagination (at the top and bottom of the page) so that you can move from one page to another.

The pagination currently isn't working but it will be fixed today - it's actually the first job on today's ever expanding list of vitally important jobs which need to be done before I do anything else.

Dutching

The new spreadsheet has been generated but I haven't been able to get much done with it yet.

Please, don't worry, I have scheduled a few hours today to allow me to get on with this.

Speed Ratings

I am going to be starting work on Speed Ratings this coming weekend.

I am compiling the basic information now (and that's the hardest part of the job!)

I have my own ideas which may or may not make any sense but...

I'd love to hear from you if you have any ideas about how Speed Ratings should be computed.

My initial idea is to compute standard times (for the winning horse) for a course, for a specific class, over a specific distance over a specific going.

So, let's say that I have a figure of X seconds for an 8 furlong AW sprint at Southwell over Standard going.

I can then show Black Beauty's percentage difference against the standard time for every race that he has run (over the same distance and going) at Southwell.

And then, I'll also be able to show Black Beauty's percentage difference against the standard time for every race that he has run (over the same distance and going) on any AW course.

Now, at the moment, I don't know what those figures are going to show; I'll need to do some analysis to show what advantage that gives us.

Also, I'm not going to take weight into account.

Unless, of course, any of you can explain to me (as you would explain to a five year old, or your favourite labrador) why I should and, more importantly, how I should.

And, crucially, what it means - I told you that I know nothing about horse racing!

You should bear in mind that I'm not trying to come up with a number that replaces the Racing Post's TopSpeed rating (or any other speed rating); I just want to show how fast a horse can be expected to run on that course, over that distance and on that going (compared to the average speed of that course, over that distance and on that going.)

In exactly the same way that the ratings are specific to the actual race.

I expect that I'll also take Class into account as I imagine that, the higher the class, the faster the race.

Words of Wisdom

One member has kindly taken it upon himself to educate me in one area of horse racing and, even more kindly...

Has allowed me to publish his words of wisdom on the site.

So, today or tomorrow, I shall do exactly that.

Today

Today I shall be working on Dutching.

I really need to get this finished before I move on to other things (such as Forecasts and Tricasts.)

However, I shall also fix the pagination and I will also attempt the produce the Analysis PDF that is on the list of Winter Upgrades.

I have just run the early test ratings and they show 19 rated races from three meetings.

I really wish that I could come up with something inspiring and, more to the point, potentially profitable, to say about any of the races but...

Nothing actually comes to mind.

It just looks like a quiet day's racing to me.

However, a couple of our second rated horses look interesting...

In the 13:20 at Uttoxetter, Dormouse is the Trainer's only horse at the meeting and Tony McCoy is riding it.

Similarly, in the 13:40 at Fontwell, Meetmeatthemoon is the Jockey's only ride at the meeting and the Trainer's only horse at the meeting; I'm not sure if that means anything though.

So, breakfast first and then on to work...

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

One Response to “Morning News”

1. dave patchett says:

   December 9, 2014 at 8:04 pm

   Keith. Many respectable racing authors advocate keeping speed ratings pure, free of weight adjustment, Bellamy, of Split/Second, Mordin and Beyer etc. It sounds like you’re venturing on an exciting addition. Your self denial of racing knowledge is probably a good thing. Doubtless you will come up with new angles. davep

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