Morning News

Good morning...

I'm not going to waffle on too much about yesterday's results.

It was a good day; it was blindly profitable to have bet on the top rated or the top three rated horses in every race.

If you had done the forecast in every race you would have had £76.29 returned to £46.00 staked.

So, now that's out of the way...

I've been doing some analysis of the results according to where in the day the race the race is run.

The initial analysis shows a distinct bias to the first 5 races of the day. This concurs with what I've been observing and a few of you have emailed me to explain why that is (the early races at each meeting tending to be the easier to rate non-handicap races.)

However, my numbers are based on all races over a two and a half year data set.

Thus, I am treating a wet Wednesday in February (with 3 meetings and 21 races) the same as a gloriously sunny Saturday in August (I have a feeling that Gloriously Sunny Saturdays in August are a thing of the past - the stuff of myths and legends! Although I do have to say that yesterday was lovely and sunny in my part of France) where there are eight meetings and 48 races.

Thus I'm comparing apples with plums.

So, what I need to do today it to factor in the number of races in a day and then redo the calculations.

I have a feeling that I will come up with numbers such as...

a). 3 meetings - first 4 races are historically most profitable.

b). 4 meetings - first 5 races are historically most profitable.

And so on.

If this proves to be the case then I'll do a PDF that you can download and pin to the wall showing these rules/advisories.

I may even be able to find a way of indicating that, on a daily basis, on the ratings themselves.

Once I've come up with the formula, I'll apply the results to our historic PBS selections.

At the risk of putting my foot in it, I have noticed that if our PBS selection is in the the last race of a meeting it doesn't get placed. But that's just an observation and I'm not sure why that is the case. Obviously, with only 6 weeks of data, it's probably too early to comment.

And, following the advice of Iain A. (who has been helping me get to grips with thinking about how to "Filter out the losers", which, for strategies based on a ratings service, is probably more important than picking the winners)...

I shall also be factoring in whether the races are handicap races or not.

And, as a result, come up with a set of rules such as...

If there are 4 meetings, historically, the first 6 non-handicap races have been the most profitable.

Once again, this is not a strategy in itself; it's more of a historically provable observation that you may be able to apply to your existing strategies and systems.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.43%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 31.25%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.63% from all 76 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 153.38 units returned to 135 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 13.61%

Top Rated Horse - There were 14 winners from the top rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 66.42 units returned to 46 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 44.39%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 44 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 49.88 units returned to 44 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 13.36%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 37.08 units returned to 45 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -17.6%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Ripon 13:50:00 - The CSF paid £5.10

Ripon 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £68.61

Lingfield (AW) 19:05:00 - The CSF paid £2.58

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tramore 16:10:00 - The CSF paid £10.76

Ripon 17:15:00 - The CSF paid £8.30

Lingfield (AW) 19:35:00 - The CSF paid £12.70

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ripon 16:40:00 - The Tricast paid £15.02 - The Trifecta paid £16.20

Ripon 17:15:00 - The Tricast paid £16.40 - The Trifecta paid £27.70

Winners

From the 49 rated races there were 27 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 11 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ripon	15:00	Shipyard (15)	9.50	11.00
Newbury	15:10	Mullionheir (15)	8.00	8.02
Newmarket - July	15:25	Shadow Game (6)	6.00	6.05
Tramore	16:10	Nanamour (8)	5.50	6.00
Doncaster	16:25	Farlow (3)	7.50	9.20
Newbury	13:25	Czabo (6)	17.00	15.70
Newmarket - July	13:40	Bahaarah (3)	9.00	10.00
Newbury	16:15	Kastini (10)	15.00	17.54
Doncaster	16:55	Maljaa (5)	6.00	6.04
Tramore	19:25	Hazariban (7)	6.00	7.20
Market Rasen	19:45	Count Salazar (3)	7.50	8.13

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Newbury 13:25:00 - Czabo - 1st - Betfair paid 4.3 for the place.
Ripon 13:50:00 - Myway Queen - Unplaced
Tramore 16:45:00 - Nicaragua - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.49 for the place.
Market Rasen 18:10:00 - El Massivo - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a profit of 1.6005 points on the day and have made a loss of 0.0375 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 2.848278 points on the day and have made a loss of 2.934723 points for August.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 29 rated races from four meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards