Morning News

Good morning...

Not so wonderful results, yesterday, and so I'm going to try and waffle a bit before I get on to talking about them.

I do apologise for not doing so well with the two big races at York yesterday (the Voltigeur and the Juddmonte) but I have to say that one of our members did manage to choose Arabian Queen in the Juddmonte Stakes (won at 50/1 ISP - 100.77 BSP.)

Now, I do happen to know what strategy that he used to select that horse but, it's a private strategy and I can't share the details.

I never share private strategies, although, if you tell me to share, then I do - that's kind of how the Place Betting Strategy came about.

Having said that, I shall be asking that member if he'd like to share a few of his "Words of Wisdom" with the rest of us (he's already done that before.)

As a sort of Ratings are wonderful (especially Focus Ratings, of course!) and Systems can work but... Sometimes you just have to put in the hard work and "study a race" type post.

I might even try to bribe him with a bottle of wine as a thank you.

Anyway (and I'm really trying to put off talking about yesterday's results here)...

From today there is another option on the daily ratings email.

This is option 22 and produces a normal ratings PDF but...

Only for non handicap races.

Iain A. sent me an email in which he mentioned...

"Yet again!

Only 7 winners out of 22 races for handicaps, as opposed to 12 out of 13 for Non handicaps.

I agree that by ignoring Handicaps, some big priced winners would be missed, BUT! and its a BIG BUT! look at all of the losing bets that would be saved."

Iain and I have been discussing the merits of focusing (sorry about the pun - totally unintended) on just the non handicap races for quite a while.

I've got to say that if we got a 92.31% strike rate (from the top three rated horses) from the non-handicaps then that's a pretty good start for a system, I would think.

And if that's not the understatement of the year, I don't know what is!

It probably only comes second to me saying that "I think that Vanessa Paradis is quite pretty!" in understatement terms!

Thus, the non-handicap ratings PDF.

A bit of work on the Builder would show which 3rd rated horses to avoid in non-handicap race (perhaps based upon confidence level) and there might be some non-handicap races that are better to avoid, such as Amateur races and so forth.

But...

It would have to be done by someone with far more time on their hands than I currently have.

Whilst I'm trying very hard not to mention yesterday's results, there is something else that I need to mention.

One of the members was concerned that, by using the Lay to Betfair BSP and displaying the monthly results, some of the Average BSPs were showing as zero.

Now, this looks like a bug but it's not, really.

The only AV BSP that you need (when using the Builder to lay to BSP) is the AV BSP of the horses that win the race (losing horses for you.)

The months that have no AV SP are those months that there were none of those.

In other words, months when all selections failed to win the race (winners for a laying system.)

You can define your Liability as you can set a minimum SP.

I'll need to put a note on the Builder to explain this.

If you need the actual prices of every selection you can use the Send CSV by Email option to get a list of the actual races and prices.

So now, I guess that I ought to get on and talk a bit about the results (for which I do apologise in advance)...

But, before I do that, I ought to say that I haven't forgotten about the work that I started last week to identify how much better we do in the earlier races.

The analysis is all done - I just need to finish the post.

So, I can't put it off any longer...

These are yesterday's horrible results...

And, in my defense, I will say that there were a lot of non runners, yesterday.

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 13.51%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 13.16%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.63% from all 41 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 62.13 units returned to 106 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -41.39%

Top Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the top rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.13 units returned to 37 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -51%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.5 units returned to 32 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -39.06%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.5 units returned to 37 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.78%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Carlisle 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.03

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Carlisle 16:05:00 - The CSF paid £15.03

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 40 rated races there were 15 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Carlisle	13:45	Jebel Tara (9)	5.50	6.20
Killarney	19:50	Xebec (10)	8.00	9.89
Killarney	20:20	Nebulla (4)	8.00	9.60

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

PLace Betting Strategy

Carlisle 14:20:00 - Bassett Bleu - Unplaced
Worcester 18:00:00 - The Clonlisk Bug - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 2 points on the day and have made a loss of 6.515 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.034 points on the day and have made a loss of 9.684213 points for August.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy we made a loss of 2.034 points on the day and have made a loss of 8.000739 points for August.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 41 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards