Morning News

Good morning...

Well, I don't know what to say.

One day I am apologising for the bad results and the next,

We hit a 30% strike rate for the top rated horse and a 75% strike rate for the top three rated horses.

And my dream target for the ratings was to hit 30% and 80% respectively (but over the whole month.)

And, what's more, we made a decent profit for the day on the Place Betting Strategy selections!

Non Handicaps

Iain A. sent me a mail yesterday evening exhorting me to look at the results form the new Non Handicap ratings that are now available.

I looked at the first page of the ratings (the first 7 non handicap races, in other words) and saw the following...

York 13:55 - Top rated lost (2nd rated won at 3.00 ISP.)

Chepstow 14:10 - Top rated won @ 2.20 ISP.

Stratford 14:20 - Top rated won @ 1.30 ISP.

York 14:30 - Top rated won @ 3.75 ISP.

Stratford 14:55 - Top rated won @ 2.10 ISP.

York 15:40 - Top rated came 2nd.

York 16:20 - Top rated lost (3rd rated won at 9.00 SIP.)

Now, my maths (even at this ungodly hour of the morning) makes that 4 top rated winners from 7 races (and 9.35 points returned to 7 points staked) and 6 top three rated winners from 7 races.

Looking at the remaining non handicaps (the next two pages, in other words) we got...

Lingfield 17:00 - Top rated won : 1.40 ISP. We got the forecast, as well.

Killarney 17:20 - Top rated was a non-runner. (3rd rated won @2.75 ISP.)

Stratford 17:45 - Top rated came 2nd (2nd rated won @ 1.73 ISP.)

Lingfield 18:00 - Top rated won @ 3.00 ISP.

Killarney 18:50 - Top rated won @ 1.73 ISP. We got the first three in the right order as well.

Killarney 19:20 - Top rated came 2nd. (3rd rated won @1.80 ISP.)

Hamilton 19:40 - Top rated won @ 2.20 ISP. We got the first three in the right order as well.

Killarney 20:20 - Top rated won @ 1.44 ISP.

So, I make that 9 top rated winners in the 14 non handicap races (taking the non runner into account) which equates to a strike rate of 64.28% and...

19.12 points returned to 14 points staked - which equals a profit of 36.57% on stakes (and that's to ISP, not BOG or BSP.)

And that's just for blindly backing the top rated horse in non-handicap races yesterday; no other filters at all.

Having said that, the Ratings themselves take into account things like LTO and going and stuff.

Perhaps some more investigation is required into non handicap races.

The Non Handicap PDF is option 22 on the morning ratings email.

Anyway, enough of patting ourselves on the back, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.63%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.27% from all 41 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 119.31 units returned to 116 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 2.85%

Top Rated Horse - There were 12 winners from the top rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.37 units returned to 40 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -26.57%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 48.14 units returned to 38 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 26.68%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the third rated horses from 38 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 41.8 units returned to 38 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 10%

Forecasts

There were 7 forecasts yesterday.

Chepstow 14:10:00 - The CSF paid £3.17

Stratford 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £12.57

Stratford 14:55:00 - The CSF paid £3.35

Lingfield 17:00:00 - The CSF paid £1.97

Lingfield 18:00:00 - The CSF paid £8.24

Killarney 18:50:00 - The CSF paid £2.52

Hamilton 19:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.34

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Stratford 17:45:00 - The CSF paid £2.12

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Stratford 14:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £30.70

Killarney 18:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.10

Hamilton 19:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.70

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 41 rated races there were 30 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
York	16:20	Martlet (11)	9.00	10.50
Chepstow	16:30	Stanlow (7)	7.00	7.20
Stratford	16:40	Faustina Pius (4)	11.00	13.50
Chepstow	17:05	Call It On (2)	13.00	18.54
Hamilton	18:40	First Sargeant (10)	5.50	5.51

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Stratford 14:20:00 - Auld Fyffee - 2nd. Betfair paid 6.93 for the place.
Killarney 18:50:00 - Sligo Publican - Unplaced (Came 3rd but it was only a 5 horse race.)
Killarney 19:20:00 - Upazo - 2nd. Betfair paid 1.55 for the place
Killarney 20:20:00 - Bohernagore - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a profit of 4.156 points on the day and have made a loss of 2.359 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 7.345791 points on the day and have made a loss of 2.338422 points for August.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy we made a profit of 6.283026 points on the day and have made a loss of 1.717713 points for August.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 44 rated races from seven meetings.

I shall not be around today as, as soon as the ratings gave gone out, Jill and I are going to the beach to build some sandcastles.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards