Morning News – 27/02/2021

Good morning...

After an early start and a long day...

I managed to cross off another task on my task list yesterday.

After a lot of analysis, I have found some interesting strategies for when the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings is also the top rated horse on Advance Ratings.

A sort of R8 but, coming out at 5:30 pm the evening before race day.

Sys1: If you blindly back the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings when it is also the top rated Advance Ratings horse in certain race types, you get 8 races a week...

One of which will, historically, be a non-runner.

From the remaining 7 races, you get a 40% strike rate and a 20% POI to ISP.

Sys2: If you blindly back the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings when it is also the top rated Advance Ratings horse and there are 5 runners or less (and the horse is the Fav, 2nd Fav or 3rd Fav) in certain race types, you get 2.66 races a week, a 57.29% strike rate and an 18.21% POI to ISP.

Sys3: If you blindly back the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings when it is also the top rated Advance Ratings horse and the favourite in certain race types, you get 4.29 races a week, a 46.99% strike rate and an 20.79% POI to ISP.

Now, obviously, sometimes there will be an overlap; where the same horse is chosen by more than one system.

I actually see this as a good thing as it sort of endorses that selection.

Over the weekend I shall be writing the code to...

a). Generate Advance Ratings at about 3pm the day before race day and.

b). Automatically produce the selections. I will call these selections Platinum selections and they will be available for free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Ratings and Place Profits members.

Ultimately, these selections may replace the Diamonds and Gold selections but, initially, they will be proofed alongside the current D&G selections.

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Focus Ratings

Yesterday's Results

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.03%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.03%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.21% from all 39 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 83.97 units returned to 108 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -22.25%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 37 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.96 units returned to 37 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -27.14%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.38 units returned to 35 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.2%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 36 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 33.63 units returned to 36 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -6.58%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 13 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 30.77%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 8.96 units returned to 13 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -31.08%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 13 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 9 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 69.23%

Investment Betting

There was one Investment Betting selection (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Exeter - 12:30 - Striking A Pose - 1st @ 1.28 ISP

I sent out an email to the Investment Betting members (it's free to Focus Ratings members) yesterday, the slightly smug text is below...

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen

I know that it was an easy one today but...

It won.

And winners make profits.

Recent results - since the change to the new system...

26/02/2021

Exeter - 12:30 - Striking A Pose - 1st @ 1.28 ISP

25/02/2021

Huntingdon - 12:30 - Hamilton Dici - 3rd
Chepstow - 13:20 - Champagne Rhythm - 1st @ 2.50 ISP (2.75 BSP)

24/02/2021

Ludlow - 16:15 - Onchan - 3rd
Kempton - 18:45 - Top Fox - 1st @ 3.25 ISP (3.73 BSP)

23/02/2021

Wetherby - 17:00 - Haute Estime - 4th

22/02/2021

Carlisle - 13:00 - Ulverston - 2nd
Wolverhampton - 16:40 - Tributo - 1st @ 2.62 ISP (2.98 BSP)

21/02/2021

Uttoxeter - 12:50 - Elham Valley - NR
Uttoxeter - 15:07 - Happy Hollow - 1st @ 3.50 ISP (3.80 BSP)
Market Rasen - 16:25 - First Man - NR

20/02/2021

Wincanton - 13:05 - Pozo Emery - 2nd
Wincanton - 13:38 - Hell Red - 3rd

Conclusion...

5 winners from the 11 races (taking the 2 non-runners into account) equates to a 45.45% strike rate.

This means that we have had 12.9948 points to ISP (quite a little bit more to BSP) returned to 11 points staked since I started publishing the new system.

That's a POI (Profit on Investment ) of 18.13% - if you look at the differences between the BSP prices and the ISP prices, you'd do better to BSP but, BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) might be interesting.

Over the last week we've had 5 winning days from the last 7 and...

That sort of means that I don't have to turn up my pacemaker.😉
My kindest regards

Keith

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were two Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday...

Exeter - 12:30 - Striking a Pose - 1st @ 1.28 ISP

Wolverhampton - 17:15 - Steelriver - 2nd

Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html

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Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meeting a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

There is a meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday.

I will be sending out the ratings for that meeting later on today.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings had an average day yesterday...

10 top rated winners from the 38 races...

Taking the 1 non-runner into account,

Means that we got a 26.31% strike rate.

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Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

7th February 2021 – Leopardstown (IRE) – 15:40 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup – Grade 1

27th February 2021 – Lingfield (AW) – 14:40 – Betway Winter Derby Stakes – Class 1

16th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 1 (5 races rated.)

17th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 2 (5 races rated.)

18th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 3 (4 races rated.)

19th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 4 (5 races rated.)

27th March 2021 – Doncaster – 15:10 – Unibet Lincoln – Class 2

New - 10th April – 2021 – Aintree – 17:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase – Class 1

22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Place Profits

Selections - New System

Warwick - 14:10 - Jay Bee Why - 1st @ 1.06
Exeter - 16:16 - Top Of The Bill - 2nd @ 1.13
Wolverhampton - 19:15 - Greystoke - 2nd @ 1.73

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Exeter - 12:30 - Striking A Pose - 1st @ 1.06
Warwick - 14:10 - Jay Bee Why - 1st @ 1.06
Exeter - 14:35 - Momella - 1st @ 1.93
Wolverhampton - 18:45 - The Pretty Way - 7th

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Exeter - 12:30 - Striking A Pose - 1st @ 1.06
Warwick - 14:10 - Jay Bee Why - 1st @ 1.06
Exeter - 14:35 - Momella - 1st @ 1.93
Wolverhampton - 18:45 - The Pretty Way - 7th

Original System (200% Confidence.)

Exeter - 12:30 - Striking A Pose - 1st @ 1.06

I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.

Click on the image to see it full size.

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Something to make you smile...

Jury Duty...

As a court clerk, I am well-versed in the jury-selection process.

First a computer randomly selects a few hundred citizens from the entire county to report for jury duty on a particular day.

Then another computer assigns 40 of those present to a courtroom.

Then the 40 names are placed in a drum, and a dozen names are pulled.

During jury selection for one trial, the judge asked potential Juror No. 12 if there was any reason he could not be a fair and impartial juror.

"There may be," he replied. "Juror No. 1 is my ex-wife, and if we were on the same jury, I guarantee we would not be able to agree on anything."

Both were excused.

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards