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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

OK - a bit of a big Morning News today.

I want to share some of the responses to my comments about the weather.

And, speaking about the weather, I do have to say that...

Summer is my favourite day of the year.

Seriously, this is becoming a really horrible August in France; still, a few weeks ago I was complaining about sunstroke - you can take the boy out of England but you can never take the England out of the boy and, like all good Brits, I'll never tire of complaining about the weather!

The really good news is that, yesterday, Wine O'Clock became an official phrase!

I'm going to spending today trying to get some historical weather data that I can map to the racing results for the last couple of years to see if I can identify any trends.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.56%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.41%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.78% from all 46 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 135.15 units returned to 134 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 0.86%

Top Rated Horse - There were 16 winners from the top rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of t I've been waffling on about it for years
he races you would have had 78.15 units returned to 45 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 73.67%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 39.25 units returned to 43 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -8.72%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.75 units returned to 46 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -61.41%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Southwell 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.28

Bellewstown 16:15:00 - The CSF paid £2.07

Bellewstown 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £11.07

Sedgefield 17:30:00 - The CSF paid £4.28

Sedgefield 20:00:00 - The CSF paid £17.82

Reverse Forecasts

There were 1 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Bellewstown 18:50:00 - The CSF paid £58.15

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Southwell 14:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £7.00

Bellewstown 16:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.60

Sedgefield 17:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.90

Sedgefield 20:00:00 - The Tricast paid £46.35 - The Trifecta paid £67.60

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Tipperary 19:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.20

Winners

From the 46 rated races there were 28 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 9 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Southwell 13:50 Lemony Bay (4) 7.50 8.00
Musselburgh 14:00 Searanger (2) 6.00 6.51
Musselburgh 15:00 Six Silver Lane (3) 7.00 7.40
Southwell 16:20 Cusheen Bridge (2) 7.00 7.24
Bellewstown 16:50 Rocky Court (8) 6.50 6.71
Bellewstown 17:50 Jarob (2) 15.00 19.93
Bellewstown 18:50 Tradewinds (5) 11.00 14.60
Wolverhampton (AW) 19:45 Rouge Nuage (2) 13.00 14.863
Sedgefield 20:00 Omid (1) 6.50 7.60

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 21:15:00 - Liberality (4)

Races (over last year): 44 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 45.45% ROI: 134.99% AV SP: 2.97

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £154.00

Liberality came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Stratford 14:10:00 - Cry Fury - Unplaced
Bellewstown 16:50:00 - Barren Hill - Unplaced
Tipperary 18:10:00 - Title Page - Unplaced

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 3 points on the day and have made a loss of 12.184 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.712 points on the day and have made a loss of 10.533069 points for August.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy we made a loss of 2.712 points on the day and have made a loss of 7.45122 points for August.

The weather

Now, yesterday I did mention that I'm starting to get interested in the effects of weather on the results of the ratings.

I haven't come to any conclusions yet but I have had some good feedback from you.

Brian said... "Many years ago... I owned a betting shop, when the ground was heavy ... We always won .... So I guess it's not the days weather but the state of the ground?"

Chris said... Hi Keith,

I don't think you are barking the wrong tree regarding the weather but maybe the question is "how severe does the weather have to be in order to affect the horse"?

There was a meeting a while back down at Brighton (I think) were they had severe wind, pouring rain, it was so bad that the race cameras couldn't pick the horses out on most of the course. After the first three races, not one of the top three rated horses had got into the frame and I gave it up as a bad job, convinced the weather was affecting the ratings.

The other factor I've sometimes wondered about is time of day. Are there some horses that prefer to run early afternoon as opposed to evening meetings and vice-versa?

Chris

Paul said that...

Hiya Keith

Hope you and Jill are well, and I apologise for not being in more regular contact recently.

If 99 out of 100 punters say the weather isn't important ........ I'm no. 100!

Having owned several race horses in the past, I've been fortunate enough to see race horses off the track; in the stable, relaxing at pasture and on the gallops, and I can tell you that without doubt horses can be affected by the weather. Unfortunately, as in your cross-country comparison, there isn't a blanket rule. My first horse was a lovely even-tempered mare. She loved running 'with the sun on her back' and her ears would prick from the moment she was loaded into the truck on a nice summers day; even if she was going galloping she performed better than when it was raining, and if it was windy as well she just didn't put the effort in. Through the binoculars you could see her ears weren't pricked and her head carriage was low - she looked like she was sulking (well ... females do that don't they?).

My last horse was a fiery colt, and just wanted to run whatever the weather, he really didn't care. We had to have him gelded to calm his temperament, but it didn't stop him wanting to run - all day, every day; he never got tired or fed up and used to batter the stable door with his hind legs if he wasn't first lot out or if the truck loaded and the doors shut without him. I swear he looked at the other horses in the yard with contempt when it was bad weather. Their heads would drop, while he was looking all around and stamping his feet impatiently. He actually performed better on ground with a bit of give in it (speed figures), but what was interesting was his willingness to run whatever the weather. His best results came when it was overcast or raining; he didn't actually run any faster than normal, but he enjoyed it and performed to his level when others around him just didn't want to be there.

Ironically, I related absolutely to his attitude as I used to be like you at cross-country; I could never understand the logic ...... surely if you didn't want to be there and were 'sulking' at the weather, you should run quicker to get back home and dry? It never worked like that, and the runners like myself who were comfortable with a bit of wind and rain (maybe because we didn't get so sweaty and sticky?) always prevailed.

On to the all-weather. I thought I had offered my views (they are strong, and fact based) on this previously, but maybe not. I'll keep it brief anyway. It used to be the case that the all-weather surfaces performed just the opposite to turf. When it was dry, the surface was light and soft, but when it rained, it was hard and compact - you only have to look at your local beach to understand. Surface materials have evolved and been changed, supposedly to improve consistency. Southwell's fibresand is unique, and behaves as I described above, although the fibres mixed with the sand stop it becoming too hard and compact. Wolverhampton used to be the most predictable of the courses as the drainage wasn't great and draw bias was really affected by the weather; it doesn't appear to be so evident since the track was relaid with Tapeta, but I don't know if that is because the surface doesn't hold the water as much as Polytrack, or if they have actually improved drainage. Something many people overlook with the artificial surfaces is that the weather NOW (at the time of the race) is very important. If there is a shower of rain between races, the next race result will be affected as the surface has changed. Savvy punters realise this and account for a lot of the last minute 'gambles' that seem to happen every time there is an all-weather meeting, but especially at Wolverhampton and at the evening meetings. These aren't really 'gambles' at all, in most cases it is simply punters at the course making their betting decision at the last minute because they can see conditions and may even hear word from the ring that a trainer says his horse will love the going (that does, or used to, happen a lot at Wolves). 'Standard' going has to cover a fairly broad range of conditions, and (in my opinion) should be read in conjunction with the weather conditions at the time of racing.

Anyway, enough already! If I can offer any further help on either angle, drop me a line.

Chris mentioned that...

Keith

Interesting thoughts on the weather. Perhaps it is because I was also dropped on my head when I was baby as I agree the weather does have an effect on how some horses run.

Firstly, as I always say 'there is no such thing as a silly question .............. however there are a lot of silly answers!'

Secondly, as my dear old granddad used to say back a filly when the sun is shining on her back. This rule seemed to work very well for him.

Unfortunately, I cannot be very scientific about these pearls of wisdom.

Many thanks for your Morning News which I read as I wake up. They set me going for the day.

Kind regards

Chris

Peter had this to say...

Dear Keith

I don’t think that your question about rain and its effect on horse racing is silly at all. As far as humans are concerned, rain can effect our mood. Why shouldn’t this apply to horses too? Since we might think, e.g., ‘I’m not in the mood to walk the dog.’ , a horse might think, ‘I’m not in the mood to run a race.’. Add to this the possible accompaniments to rain - thunder and lightning – why not include rain in factors to be taken into consideration when assessing the possible outcome of a horse race. (We might call it the Eckstein factor?)

Best wishes

Peter

Roy wanted to share this...

Keith,

You are right, As with ourselves, the cold wind and wet conditions affect the horses in a similar way. Old horses lose their warmth quicker than younger ones and as you have stated some perform better on good ground and its not that some horses perform better in bad weather but that the rest of the field perform bad....if you know what I mean. In other words, on a bad day I always eliminate those horses which history tells me perform bad in these conditions, before I can then rate the rest of the horses. I also eliminate older horses ie from 6 and up on a bad day.

Hope this helps a little.

Roy

Tony had this to say...

one quote off the web from just one simple search....

My Arab absolutely hates when it's raining, snowing or when snow is on the ground. If rain or snow is actively coming down, he often refuses to leave the barn and ends up left in his stall. If he's already outside, he won't leave the shed until it's time to come in.

It's not evidence but it is a thought.

Oh, and there are two animals out in the rain and wind. I bet some jockeys don't ride as well in the wind and rain but only your numbers can prove anything 🙂

Tony

Joe opened my eyes with his comments...

If there is a difference in relative performance of a horse when it is rainy or the weather is foul it could well be the jockey's fault.

He/she has been up since 5 am riding out work (in the rain) has had three leaves of lettuce and a slice of smoked salmon in the last 24 hrs - has been standing in the rain listening to the trainer waffle on for the fourth or fifth time during the afternoon while the horse has been rugged up and is only asked to do it once.

The harness is wet and slippy and the body is numb with wet cold etc - the drag of the wacky baccy taken to easy the pain has now dulled the senses.

Makes a number of mistakes on the horse to ensure that it does not win or is placed - last thing you want is to send time talking to the owners in the peeing rain or more importantly be last into the steam room or have to do with the seat by the door.

The horse has had a balanced meal for breakfast, been rugged up whilst going around the parade ring has had a light canter down to post to keep warm and then has a minute or two exercise to build up a sweat, is then dowsed with water and scrubbed down, dried off , had another warm rug on, given something to eat and lead into his horse box.

No it is the jockey.

Joe

So, there's plenty of food for thought and I'll start crunching some numbers today.

And after all that, I expect that you need...

Something to make you smile...

A group of primary school infants go on a trip to Ascot races to learn about horses.

When it's time to take the children to the toilet it is decided that the girls will go with one teacher and the boys with the other.

The teacher assigned to the boys is waiting outside when one of the boys comes out to tell her that none of them can reach the urinal.

Having no choice, she goes inside and helps the boys with their pants and begins hoisting the boys up one by one holding there willies to direct the flow.

As she lifts one boy she can't help but notice that he is unusually well endowed.

Trying not to stare she says

"You must be in year four."

"No, love" he replies,

"I'm riding Silver Shadow in the 2.15!'

I was at the races the other day and decided to put my sixpence on Derek the Three Legged Donkey (you can see that I really know about this horse racing stuff, can't you?) as he was at 100/1 and it was only a five horse race.

Anyway, I was queing up at the on-course bookie and the guy in front of me put £100 on the same horse.

Having risked my sixpence, I went back to the bar and bought myself a nice pint of Guinness.

Whilst I was having a sip I couldn't stop thinking about that geezer who had bet £100 on the same horse that I had risked my sixpence on.

Eventually, the gambler in me came out and I put my pint down and wandered over to the same bookie to put a shilling on Derek the Three Legged Donkey.

Strangely enough, the same guy was in front of me and, this time, he was putting £200 on the same horse.

I risked my shilling and went back to my pint.

However, as it was only a five horse race, I couldn't stop feeling that I was doing myself out of some profits; after all, if that other guy was backing the horse, perhaps he knew something that I didn't know (not such a difficult thing, when it comes to horse racing.)

So, after a few more sips of my Guinness, I decided to risk it all and went back to the same bookie to put a whole 50p on Derek the Three Legged Donkey.

Lo and behold, would you believe it but....

The same guy was, once again, in line just in front of me.

This time he put £500 on Derek the Three Legged Donkey!

The bookie took the bet, frowned and then said to the punter, "Look mate, I don't want to see you lose your wages; I own that horse and I don't think he can possibly win."

"Oh I think he can." Said the punter, smiling, "You see, I own the other four horses in the race."

Boom, boom!

Today

Today's early test ratings show 46 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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