Morning News

Good morning...

Well, for the third day in a row...

We've had a better than 30% strike rate for the top rated horse.

Which makes me happy.

I have to admit that I'm struggling, a bit, to get historical weather data matched up with our results but I'll get there;

After all, a problem is just a solution waiting to be found.

At the same time, I shall also be trying analyse whether we do better on some days of the week than other days.

More than a few of you have mentioned that you don't bet on Saturdays.

Anyway, that's for next week, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.56%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 36.26%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.42% from all 48 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 124.73 units returned to 130 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -4.05%

Top Rated Horse - There were 16 winners from the top rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 51.88 units returned to 45 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 15.29%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 27.5 units returned to 43 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -36.05%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the third rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 45.35 units returned to 42 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 7.98%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Thirsk 16:35:00 - The CSF paid £8.98

Newcastle 17:45:00 - The CSF paid £4.63

Goodwood 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £11.87

Hamilton 19:00:00 - The CSF paid £2.90

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Thirsk 16:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £34.00

Newcastle 17:45:00 - The Trifecta paid N/K

Goodwood 18:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £23.50

Hamilton 19:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.80

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 6 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ffos Las 14:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £21.80

Ffos Las 15:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.30

Thirsk 16:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £18.00

Ffos Las 16:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £67.80

Ffos Las 16:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.20

Hamilton 17:55:00 - The Tricast paid £86.46 - The Trifecta paid £157.20

Winners

From the 46 rated races there were 30 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Thirsk	15:25	Eccleston (5)	6.00	7.12
Ffos Las	16:25	Bapak Bangsawan (2)	9.00	11.83
Newmarket - July	16:45	Persun (13)	11.00	16.50
Hamilton	17:55	New Lease Of Life (1)	9.00	10.77
Down Royal	18:00	Rock On Rosie (1)	6.00	6.60
Hamilton	20:05	Ya Boy Sir (9)	7.00	7.20

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Newmarket - July - 15:40:00 - Tashweeq (20)

Races (over last year): 26 Wins: 10 Strike Rate: 38.46% ROI: 113.07% AV SP: 2.94

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £34.00

Tashweeq won at 1.91 ISP (1.93 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Thirsk 13:50:00 - Bonds Tricks - 2nd - Betfair paid 2.20 for the place.
Thirsk 14:20:00 - Threeinoneday - Unplaced
Down Royal 16:20:00 - Social Climber - Unplaced
Down Royal 18:30:00 - Red Jacket - NR

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a loss of 0.83 points on the day and have made a loss of 13.044 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.58308 points on the day and have made a loss of 11.116149 points for August.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy we made a loss of 0.58308 points on the day and have made a loss of 8.0343 points for August.

Something to make you smile...

I went to the horse racing for the first time ever at the weekend.

I haven't got a clue about betting, so I walked up to the counter and said, "Excuse me. Could you explain to me what an each way bet is please?"

The man said, "No problem Sir. An each way bet is split into two stakes. The first is a bet on the horse to win. The second is a proportional bet on the horse to finish in a place. This can be first, second, third or even fourth, depending on the amount of horses running in the race."

I said, "That sounds perfect for me! Can I have two pounds each way on number four please?"

"No," he replied.

"Oh," I said, "And why's that?"

"This is a hot dog stand."

Every year I take the whole week off work so I can enjoy the Cheltenham Festival.

I've had some great times, but it does seem to have held back my career as a jockey.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 50 rated races from seven meetings.

I've got a very busy day today and, thus, may not be replying to emails until early Sunday morning.

If all goes well, I will have fixed a friend's computer, bought myself a new bookcase, sorted out the mapping of the weather data to our historical results and designed a new parcel shelf for my car.

Oh, most importantly, I will have finished moving some of the non time specific calculations for the ratings to the 4am slot so that I can speed up the generation of the ratings and, thus, let me get them to you earlier.

Or, if it all goes horribly wrong, I'll be putting all those things on tomorrow's To-Do list!

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards