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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

A reasonable day, yesterday.

Our two PBS selections did their job yesterday; one won and won lost.

But we're now in profit, as a result, for the month.

We've had a bit of a bumpy few days, I do have to admit but, we're in profit this month and we also made some pretty obscene profits last month.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.38%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 32.84%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.56% from all 36 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 93.14 units returned to 98 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -4.96%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 43.29 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 35.28%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.4 units returned to 33 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -65.45%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38.45 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 16.52%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Cork 17:40:00 - The CSF paid £63.87

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Goodwood 15:05:00 - The CSF paid £20.99

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Cork 14:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £38.60

Cork 14:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.50

Curragh 15:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.20

Winners

From the 35 rated races there were 20 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Yarmouth 14:40 Honcho (7) 13.00 16.74
Goodwood 15:05 Royal Toast (7) 10.00 11.80
Cork 15:30 My Manekineko (3) 5.50 5.78
Cork 16:40 Hard Fought (7) 6.00 6.31
Curragh 17:20 Captain Power (4) 8.00 11.39
Yarmouth 17:25 Tyrsal (2) 7.00 7.84
Cork 17:40 Walkers Point (10) 8.00 10.00

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Yarmouth 14:10:00 - Lady Nayef - Unplaced
Cork 14:25:00 - Icantsay - 3rd - Betfair paid 3.05 for the place.

I have updated the spreadsheet of all of the results. It may be found at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSAug.xls

We made a profit of 1.9475 points on the day and have made a loss of 5.2285 points for August.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 1.28481 points on the day and have made a profit of 0.715629 points for August.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 1.28481 points on the day and have made a profit of 3.063204 points for August.

Something to make you smile

I was watching the horse racing earlier.

On the home straight the commentator suddenly yelled "It looks like it's going to be a race to the line here!"

Now, I might not know anything about horse racing but...

To be honest, I could have told you that before they'd even set off.

And I know bugger all about horse racing!

I've entered my horse in his first race today.

The trainer seems confident, and has advised me to put a monkey on it.

A jockey would've been my first choice, but this guy is supposed to know what he's talking about.

Day of the week...

A few days ago I suggested that I might be interested in which day of the week it was best to bet on.

Chris was amazing and came back almost straight away with a detailed response and he has given me permsission to reproduce it here.

Hi Keith,

Since I started subscribing last October, I've kept track of which days are best for me and you need to factor in the race type and time of year (you probably already know that).

After a few months with the service, Friday was definitely my best day to bet and Saturday, Sunday and Monday were all pretty useless. I soon realised that the reason Friday was so good was because of the AW racing at Dundalk. From October 10th 2014 through to March 15th 2015 I made around £2,470, after March 15th, Dundalk would have lost me £540.

Friday over all disciplines now ranks as my second best day with a profit of £3,218 with Monday (previously a terrible day) now my best day currently showing a profit of £6,775. Over 4K of that Monday total has come from the Flat racing, so as I said at the start, it's not just the day, its the day plus race type in my opinion.

Sunday has always been a very poor day for me with only the all-weather showing a small profit.

I tend not to bet Saturday or Sunday myself but I still make my selections using the same criteria as the rest of the week and keep records of what would have happened. I also keep statistics of meetings and if an individual track has a good record (i.e. makes money more than 40% of the time) on a Saturday or Sunday I'll sometimes have a dabble but usually it ends in tears.

I read an article a while back where the author said he didn't bet on Saturday and Sundays because of the quality of the racing. He reasoned that on a Saturday the meetings had the most prize money and therefore attracted the better horses and that if you had a field of 9 horses and 5 of them were in with a chance then it made it much harder to select the winner whereas during the week a 9 horse race might only have 2 or 3 potential winners in the field.

He applied the opposite logic to Sundays where the prize money tended to be low and thus the quality of racing was also low so if the 9 horse race contained Dennis The Donkey (your favourite) plus his mates from Blackpool sands then it was just as difficult trying to decide which one might actually run a decent race as it was trying to pick the winner in a quality race.

Chris

Now, Chris did have some other things to say but I can't share them with you as they are personal to his personal betting strategy.

What I can say is that I'll be doing a spreadsheet showing races types, months of the year and days of the week to see if we can also make the sort of profits that Chris does by his analysis.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 56 rated races from eight meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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