Morning News

Good morning...

Or, should that be Good Evening?

Before I get on with yesterday's racing,

I'd just like to apologise for being a bit absent and for not replying to emails as fast as I should.

Mum's funeral should be next week and that will put some closure on things and I'll be able to get back to work.

Whilst the headline figures for yesterday might not look so good...

Whilst watching the results come in, I didn't think that we were getting them so wrong.

In fact. you could would have made a profit had you blindly done the forecast in every race.

I have some important news to impart to you even f it's the sort of important news that doesn't affect you.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.51%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.99%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.6% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 98.2 units returned to 120 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -18.17%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 39 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.48 units returned to 39 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -47.49%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 41 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 39.6 units returned to 41 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -3.41%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 38.12 units returned to 40 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -4.7%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Newcastle 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £1.73

Musselburgh 17:45:00 - The CSF paid £6.68

Kempton (AW) 18:25:00 - The CSF paid £26.36

Kilbeggan 19:05:00 - The CSF paid £14.20

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Musselburgh 19:15:00 - The CSF paid £24.75

Kempton (AW) 19:25:00 - The CSF paid £2.86

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Musselburgh 18:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £24.50

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ascot	14:10	Taurean Star (7)	6.00	7.33
Haydock	15:35	Apricot Sky (15)	8.00	8.80
Musselburgh	18:15	Fantasy Gladiator (2)	10.00	11.50
Kempton (AW)	18:55	Zhui Feng (9)	7.00	8.10
Musselburgh	19:15	Dhaular Dhar (2)	17.00	18.87

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Ascot - 15:10:00 - Nosey Barker (6)

Races (over last year): 10 Wins: 3 Strike Rate: 30.00% ROI: 420.00% AV SP: 14.00

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £320.00

Nosey Barker was a non-runner.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Newcastle 13:20:00 - Croft Ranger - Unplaced
Haydock 13:30:00 - Combe Hay - 2nd - Betfair paid 2.01 for the place.
Haydock 14:30:00 - Mysterious Grace - Unplaced
Kilbeggan - 16:35:00 - Meadowlands - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.39 for the place.

The spreadsheet of all of the resultsis available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSSept.xls

We made a loss of 0.67 points on the day and have made a loss of 0.6375 points for September.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 1.13226 points on the day and have made a loss of 0.82377 points for September.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 1.383459 points on the day and have made a loss of 0.45984 points for September.

Important news (that doesn't affect you)...

Now, I do have to warn you that, sometime in the next few weeks or so, I shall be publishing a "This Does Not Concern you!" post.

Those of you who joined prior to September last year will already know the score but, for the rest of you...

It means that I shall be increasing the prices for new members at some point in October.

"This Does Not Concern you!"

Please be aware that, whatever price you signed up at is the price that you'll always pay - YOU WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS PRICE RISE.

It'll only affect people who are joining the service after the price rise has been implemented.

The reason that we've decided to do this is that Jill and I would rather concentrate on a smaller client base rather than to try and get the maximum number of clients and then fail to offer adequate customer support to them (and you guys.)

Also, I've got R5 coming up and I've invested a reasonable amount of money (and a heck of a lot of time) in building my Sherlock and Holmes server to identify how I can improve R4. Thus, I feel justified in charging more money to any new arrivals.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 50 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards