Morning News

Good morning...

As I explained yesterday, I am taking the day off today as I need to do some Christmas shopping.

Thus, this is going to be a very short Morning News.

And, to be honest, when I got home from my lunch out yesterday, I really thought that I'd have nothing to say today...

That is, if you wanted me to say something about winning horses.

What a horrible start to the day's racing.

It sort of shows that I need to be sat in front of the computers if I want some decent results.

Thank goodness for the better results towards the end of the day.

I don't know why the day started so badly but I did read something in my local French newspaper about a "Weather Bomb" hitting the UK.

I don't know what a "Weather Bomb" is but, if it hurts the ratings, then I don't want any more of them.

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.17%.

Which is a far better result than I expected!

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Taunton 15:10 - The CSF paid £12.96

Kempton 15:50 - The CSF paid 23.05

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 24 rated races there were 14 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - five of those were at anything like a decent price.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newcastle	14:20	Jukebox Melody	6.0	6.6
Warwick	15:00	Seas of Green	9.0	12.0
Taunton	15:10	Un Anjou	5.5	6.12
Warwick	15:30	Barters Hill	6.0	6.46
Kempton	15:50	Lewamy	5.5	5.98

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). In my waffling yesterday I mentioned that... "In the first race of the day our top rated horse, Clenagh Castle has a decent confidence level of 178.29% but this is more to do with the other horses have very low ratings rather than him being an exceptional beast himself (he’s currently at 14/1 on OddsChecker.)"

Clenagh Castle came second.

2). Taunton 12:40 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The live ratings promoted our 2nd rated horse to our top rated horse. Southfield Vic went on to win the race.

3). Newcastle 13:50 - We got the top three in this race - unfortunately in the wrong order.

4). Newcastle 14:50 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted the 2nd and 3rd races horses and brought in Scimon Templar and the new 3rd rated horse. Scimon Templar went on to twin the race at 7.0 ISP (7.2 BSP)

5). Taunton 15:10 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £12.96.

6). Warwick 15:30 - We got the top three in this race - unfortunately in the wrong order.

7). Kempton 15:50 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £23.05.

8). Kempton 16:20 - We got the top three in this race (in the right order) - The Trifecta paid £13.40.

In my early morning analysis I said this... "Our top rated horse, Chicago Bere, has a confidence level of 200%. A quick look at the database shows that he’s pretty much the stand out horse in this race (having already beaten our second rated horse) so let’s hope he’s reading this and decides to prove that he hasn’t got a rating of 5.57 (more than twice that of Colourfilly) for nothing."

I guess that Chicago Bere (or his Trainer) reads the Morning News.

9). Kempton 16:50 - Our second rated horse was a non runner, The Live Ratings promoted the 3rd rated horse to the new 2nd rated horse and brought in Classic Seniority and the new 3rd rated horse. The race was won by our top rated horse and the Live Ratings predicted the top three horses, it got the first three in the right order, in other words. The Trifecta paid £27.30.

In my early morning post I mentioned that... "Our 2nd rated horse, Vimy Ridge, is dropping 2 classes and our third rated horse is moving up 2 classes. Now, either I’m wrong or the market is wrong as Vimy Ridge is currently 7/1 on OddsChecker. It must be said, though, that our third rated horse is currently shown as the 6/4 favourite on OddsChecker."

Even though we ended up getting the first three in the right order according to the Live Ratings, I do wish that Vimy Ridge hadn't been a non-runner.

The Portfolio

There wasn't a Banker's Bet yesterday (nor a Chancer's Bet)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades - you can see it here... Winter Upgrades

I am updating that post to show which upgrades have been implemented and, where possible, to indicate when I think that an upgrade may be implemented.

I didn't do any upgrades yesterday as I'm out today and, if I do a change, I really do need to be around to sort it out if (or, should that read when), it all goes horribly wrong.

Dutching

No new work here but I have generated some new data which may (or may not) hold the key to how to profit from Dutching.

Whilst I'm working on the Speed ratings over the weekend (and waiting for the queries to execute), I'll see if I can get on with some more work on Dutching.

Speed Ratings

So, tomorrow and Sunday will see my first attempts to generate some Speed Ratings to supplement our current ratings.

I'm not sure how much relevant data I will be able to produce but, as always, I'll do my best.

Words of Wisdom

One member has kindly taken it upon himself to educate me in one area of horse racing and, even more kindly...

He has allowed me to publish his words of wisdom on the site.

I published Episode one on Wednesday and you can see it here... The Missing Link.

Yesterday I published Episode two and you can see it here... What are the “big” meetings and why?.

I've just published episode three and you can see it here... Sires and ratings.

Zero inbox email policy

Now, I do realise that it might seem a bit weird that I'm telling you about my emails but...

I completely understand that I run a service based business and that you, my clients, deserve to know how soon I will get back to you, should you decide to email me.

After all, you pay Jill and me our wages.

And I'll never forget that!

So, I just thought I'd let you know that I currently have an empty email inbox!

Today

The early morning test ratings show 33 rated races from 5 meetings.

Bangor 14:00 - Honey Pound is a stand out horse for me. He's dropped a class (but has previously won at Class 4) and has a confidence level of 200%. His rating is an improvement on his average ratings and, just look at the difference between his rating and those of the other top two rated horses. He's also his trainer's only horse at Bangor.

The market disagrees with me though as OddsChecker currently has Honey Pound as the 3rd fav at 2/1.

Cheltenham 15:15 - There's something that keeps drawing my eye to our second rated horse (Invicta Lake) in this race. He's dropping a class when the other two top rated horses are going up in class. He's also won and been placed on the going.

However, the market totally disagrees with me as OddsChecker has him as 4th in the betting order at 6/1.

I don't know the horse, the jockey or the trainer; I just know that, from a numbers point of view this horse stands out.

Now, you'll probably all email me to tell me... "Ah, but the other top two rated horses have recently beaten Invicta Lake (by a mile) in similar races."

And that's why you shouldn't take to much notice of what I have to say.

Dundalk 18:45 - Our top rated horse, Sassy but Classy, also has a confidence level of 200%. Oddschecker has her as the odds on favourite so there's no value there. She's a recent returner and has an astronomical rating compared to the other top three rated horses.

So, I'm going to be out for most of the day but Jill will be around.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards