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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsIt's raining (which means, no fishing)...

Which means that I'll have to talk a bit about yesterday instead.

So, down to business...

A so, so day yesterday with a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 26.67%.

Now, that might not sound a lot (and I do like those days when we get a strike rate of 30% or better), but it's actually better than the average for the year so far (and 1.16% better than the average for 2013?)

Which isn't too surprising as Focus Ratings is sort of "self learning", thus, the strike rate should improve, year on year and...

By my calculations...

Sometime in 2046, we should be getting a 100% strike rate for the top rated horse?

Or, am I just being slightly optimistic here?

Yesterday's Results

A quick look at the Results shows few surprises.

6 Non-Runners from the 32 rated races (and I don't like non-runners, they mess up the ratings.)

Now, I suppose that I ought to share why I don't like non-runners...

If I rate a 10 horse race I get a set of numbers that go to make up the R4 figures for the horses in that race.

If that race then becomes a 9 horse race because of a non-runner...

Those numbers all change and that means that I've incorrectly rated that race!

And there's nothing that I can do about it...

Apart from inventing a Time Machine so that I can go forward into the future and see which horses are going to be non-runners?

And, if I do that, I might as well take a peak at the actual results of the race at the same time?

And sort of back fit the ratings, in advance.

Focus-Ratings-Back-to-the-FutureAnyway, although I have been playing with my Meccano kit and my soldering iron (and am saving up for a DeLoren), it'll probably take me until 2046 (when the ratings will be so good that we won't need a time machine, anyway) until I have an actual, working "Back to the Future" time machine.

Although I am, disturbingly, starting to look more and more like the mad professor from that film?

Winners

From the 32 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - no massive prices but the below are some of the higher ones...

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Lingfield 12:25 Wedlock 13.0 15.0
Cheltenham 13:15 Charingworth 6.0 6.0
Cheltenham 15:00 Parlour Games 11.0 15.5
Lingfield 15:50 Comedy House 6.0 7.6
Wolverhampton 17:00 Somedaysrdiamonds 8.5 9.6
Dundalk 18:15 Daisy Bell 9.0 13.66
Dundalk 20:15 Misty Lane 8.0 13.44
Dundalk 20:45 Hardstone 6.5 7.45

Comments...

Well, the first thing that comes to mind is the difference between the BetFair starting prices and the Bookmaker's starting prices?

Just look at Parlour Games, Daisy Bell and Misty Lane?

Apart from that...

Only 2 winners from Newcastle - but then, I only managed to rate 4 of the races there?

16 of the 19 winners (from the top three rated horses) had either won or been placed on the actual going - that might be a meaningless statistic, or, it might not?

12 of the 19 winners (from the top three rated horses) had last raced in the last 28 days.

And, all of the 19 winners had run in the last 11 weeks.

4 out of the 5 winners (from the top three rated horses) at Dundalk (7 rated races) had last raced in the last 28 days.

And....

Well, nothing else seems to stand out?

Sorry, but it was just an average day and pretty much what I would expect from a November, largely AW, day's racing.

The Portfolio

Our first Bankers Bet yesterday got stage fright and came 4th.

From today (sometime this afternoon) there will be a link to the results table for the Portfolio selections on the Portfolio Page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

As you know, I'm looking into possible strategies for Dutching.

I'm currently only looking at All Weather races (as the actual weather has less effect.)

I'm going to just watch for a while before trying anything out on the Builder as I've learned the hard way that this actually saves time.

But basically, my concept is that some races are better for Dutching than others so it's probably a Race filter (or combination of them) which will be key?

So far I'm only thinking about Dutching to level stakes (rather than using proportional stakes to ensure that the win is always the same - that sounds too much like hard work?)

Obviously field size is important but, then, with bigger fields you can get better prices?

Once I get onto the Builder I bet that RC0 is the first thing I look at?

So, very much just gut feeling at the moment but I'll be keeping an eye on things.

One thing that is at the back of my mind is when the top three rated horses are very close in Confidence; it's just a tickle at the back of my mind but it might be interesting to see what happens when the top three horses are close in Confidence but way ahead of the 4th rated horse in confidence (I'll have to use the full ratings PDF for that.)

Live Ratings

Because of the non-runners yesterday, the results from the Live Ratings would have been far better than those of the actual ratings.

Now, I know that many of you can't access the Live Ratings during the day but, for those of you who can, it's well worth taking a look at them.

Over the next few days I'm going to be producing a results table to show how they increase the accuracy of the ratings (compared to the actual ratings) and then I'll be calling on any of you who own iPhones to test out the App that I'm working on (it'll show the Live ratings and will allow you to drill down to view detailed statistics on each of the horses.)

Today

6 meetings today and I guess we'll all be thinking about the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Cheltenham 2:30pm) - there's an interesting article about that here.

No, I know that I know nothing about horse racing but...

Why don't they just bring all the races forward by half an hour?

The first UK race is at 11:50 (Lingfield) - if they can start racing earlier in the day, why can't Cheltenham?

Or, is it something to do with TV (and advertising money?)

See, I told you that I know nothing about horse racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

2 Responses to “Morning News”

  1. Keith Eckstein says:

    Thanks for your comments Mike.

    Today I shall be looking closely at Cheltenham.

    I think that I’m on to something there – more tomorrow morning.

    All the best

    Keith

  2. Mike G says:

    Good morning Keith (& Jill)

    Very well written article, as always.

    I for one appreciate your research and will be very interested in the Dutching results you are looking into.

    A great service with value for money.

    Kind Regards
    Mike

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