Morning News

Good morning...

As I had the day off yesterday, I don't really have all that much to say today.

So, this is going to be a very short Morning News.

And, to be honest, I don't have all that many good things to say about yesterday.

Even my Christmas shopping (the reason for the day off, yesterday) wasn't as successful as I'd hoped it would be...

The discount store that normally stocks lots of interesting wines (and nice prices) didn't have much to interest me.

And, I couldn't find a bottle of sherry anywhere!

And Christmas isn't Christmas without a glass of sherry.

But, rather than be miserable, I'd better talk about yesterday's (admittedly miserable) results...

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.13%.

Which is pretty Tosh, when you think about it.

However, we are still running a monthly strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 27.36% compared to the 23.03% we achieved last December.

And that compares favourably with the 26.06% strike rate for the year to date.

Interestingly, we hit a strike rate for the top three rated horses of 70.97%.

Our average for this figure for the year to date is 55.43%.

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Dundalk 18:15 - The CSF paid £20.07

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 31 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - six of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Cheltenham	14:10	Benbane Head	17.0	20.54
Cheltenham	15:15	Ulzanas Raid	5.5	6.0
Cheltenham	15:45	Seedling	6.0	7.03
Wolverhampton	16:30	Warm Order	8.0	9.8
Dundalk	18:15	Kimbay	5.5	5.7
Wolverhampton	18:30	Sarlat	7.0	7.74

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Cheltenham 12:30 - We got the first three horses in this race - just not in the right order.

2). Bangor 12:55 - We got the first three horses in this race - just not in the right order.

3). Bangor 13:30 - We got the first three horses in this race - this time they were in the right order. The Trifecta paid £5.60.

4). Doncaster 13:50 - Our second rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our 3rd rated horse (Sixty Something) to 2nd rated horse - he went on to win. An new 3rd rated horse was brought in (Mister Marker) and he came 3rd.

5). Bangor 14:00 – Yesterday I mentioned that... Honey Pound is a stand out horse for me. He’s dropped a class (but has previously won at Class 4) and has a confidence level of 200%. His rating is an improvement on his average ratings and, just look at the difference between his rating and those of the other top two rated horses. He’s also his trainer’s only horse at Bangor.

The market disagrees with me though as OddsChecker currently has Honey Pound as the 3rd fav at 2/1.

Well, the market got it right and I got it wrong. Honey Pound came 4th.

6). Cheltenham 15:15 – Yesterday I mentioned that... There’s something that keeps drawing my eye to our second rated horse (Invicta Lake) in this race. He’s dropping a class when the other two top rated horses are going up in class. He’s also won and been placed on the going.

However, the market totally disagrees with me as OddsChecker has him as 4th in the betting order at 6/1.

Once again, the market got it right and I got it wrong.

7). Doncaster 15:25 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our 2nd rated horse to top rated and he, Centasia, went on to win.

8). Wolverhampton 18:00 - We got the first three horses in this race - just not in the right order.

9). Dundalk 18:15 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £20.07.

10). Dundalk 18:45 – Yesterday I mentioned that... Our top rated horse, Sassy but Classy, also has a confidence level of 200%. Oddschecker has her as the odds on favourite so there’s no value there. She’s a recent returner and has an astronomical rating compared to the other top three rated horses.

Sassy but Classy came third.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet)

Bankers Bet = NH Chase - Mares who are top rated and came 3rd last time out. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and Horse = Mare and where Position last time out = Third

Selection = Back to ISP - Bangor-on-Dee - 12:55:00 - Golden Sparkle (1)

Races (over last year): 20 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 25.00% ROI: 107.25% AV SP: 4.29%

Golden Sparkle won at 3.5 ISP (3.69 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades - you can see it here... Winter Upgrades

I am updating that post to show which upgrades have been implemented and, where possible, to indicate when I think that an upgrade may be implemented.

I didn't do any upgrades yesterday as I was out and, if I do a change, I really do need to be around to sort it out if (or, should that read when), it all goes horribly wrong.

Dutching

Whilst I'm working on the Speed ratings today and tomorrow (and waiting for the queries to execute), I'll see if I can get on with some more work on Dutching.

Speed Ratings

I'm about to start trying to generate the Average Speed for different courses, distances, going and class.

I'll update you tomorrow.

Words of Wisdom

PaulW has kindly been helping me get my head around speed ratings and, even more kindly...

He has allowed me to publish his words of wisdom on the site.

I've just published the contents of his email to me and you can see it here... Speed Ratings - Weight Relevance.

Early Birds and Early Morning Ratings

Jeffrey emailed me yesterday to mention that Invicta Lake wasn't 2nd rated as I had stated (in my waffle about the 15:15 at Cheltenham.)

It turned out that he was referring to the Early Bird Preview ratings that had been published at 5pm the previous day and I was referring to my early morning test ratings.

I'd never realised that there could be a difference between the two.

I was even more surprised when the normal ratings came out and Invicta Lake had been demoted to 3rd rated.

Now, there's nothing to stop me from publishing the early test ratings (or a link to them) on the Morning News email (should you want them.)

I know that there are some of you who leave for work early and can't access the normal ratings during the day, so these might be slightly more accurate than the Early Bird previews for you.

Today's 5am early test ratings are available here... Early Test Ratings

Now, you'll notice that there are no forecast prices (and, thus, no Yield) on these ratings.

I have done this on purpose; these ratings are basically to allow me to check that I have all the meetings covered and to let me check that the numbers look right. It's basically something that I do so that I can have the confidence to go out in the morning (when I need to) rather than worrying that the ratings will go out incorrect.

And I don't want to be distracted by a forecast price.

If the early ratings show our top rated horse at 20/1 I'd worry and, so, I have removed this potential source of worry. At 5am the market is very immature and any strange things, like having a 20/1 top rated horse, generally get sorted out by the time the real ratings go out.

However, should any of you wish to use the 5am ratings, I can generate a version with prices for you.

Today

The 5am early morning test ratings show 43 rated races from 6 meetings.

In other words, every race has been rated.

Apparently it's the Cheltenham International Meeting today.

Cheltenham 14:00 - The ratings are so close for the top three rated horses in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup there's really nothing that I can say about it. Just looking at the numbers, it seems a bit odd that Workbench is top rated but, what do I know?

Cheltenham 15:10 - In the Stan James International Hurdle the top two rated horses are clearly apart from the 3rd rated horse.

The ratings look pretty right to me and, amazingly, the comments bit at the bottom of The Racing Post's card for this race agrees with the ratings.

I don't take any note of the Racing Post but I think that this is the first time that I have ever seen their comments perfectly in line with the ratings.

If I do want to look at any comments, I always use the Sporting Life and their comments generally agree with the ratings - they certainly do today.

I should note here that, there are a million people/pundits (perhaps I'm exaggerating, slightly) offering their thoughts about horse racing. The Racing Post and The Sporting Life are just 2 of the bigger ones.

I don't take too much notice of what anyone else has to say - I prefer to trust the numbers that I generate but...

If something on the 5am ratings looks strange then I do take a peek at The Sporting Life to double check.

Wolverhampton 17:45 - The only other race that stands out is this maiden. The top rated horse has decent form and is dropping in class. No, I know nothing about horse racing and even less about Trainer's strategies (although I am learning) but...

To my uneducated mind this looks very much as if the Trainer was dropping the horse in class to give the owner a confidence boosting win.

Or have I got this totally wrong?

Anyway, Secret Glance has a nice rating and a good confidence level.

So, time to get the number crunching machine fired up and get the Speed Ratings underway.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards