Morning News

Good morning...

Well...

A pretty horrible day for the ratings, yesterday but,

Today can only be better.

I suppose that everyone will be watching the Cesarewitch and whilst the ratings look pretty tight for that race, our top rated horse is being ridden by a jockey who will be going to Newmarket just to ride that one horse and the trainer strike rate is pretty impressive.

Interestingly, all top three rated horses are running with a lower rating than their average rating but this reflects the complexity of the race (just the 34 runners - could you squeeze any more horses on the course?) rather than a drop in predicted performance.

Still, what do I know about horse racing?

I may just risk 10p each way on High Secret as he's currently at 24/1.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 6.06%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 5.56%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 5.56% from all 36 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 53.34 units returned to 102 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -47.71%

Top Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the top rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 3.33 units returned to 33 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -89.91%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.63 units returned to 33 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -28.39%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 36 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.38 units returned to 36 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -26.72%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Newmarket 13:35:00 - The CSF paid £9.34

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:10:00 - The CSF paid £46.29

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Newmarket 13:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £76.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 35 rated races there were 13 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
York	14:20	Youre Fired (1)	8.50	9.27
York	16:25	Dolphin Vista (3)	6.50	8.00
Wolverhampton (AW)	18:10	Gold Waltz (6)	8.00	8.30
Wolverhampton (AW)	19:10	Stocking (2)	6.00	6.80

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

But they were both the same horse, albeit from different systems.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Wonders - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 28 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60% and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 19:40:00 - Mr Frankie (1)

Races (over last year): 57 Wins: 33 Strike Rate: 57.89% ROI: 166.14% AV SP: 2.87

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £377.10

Chancers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 19:40:00 - Mr Frankie (1)

Races (over last year): 44 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 45.45% ROI: 133.62AV SP: 2.94

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £148.00

Overwhelmed by being picked by 2 systems, Mr Frankie came second by a neck.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Newton Abbot 13:55:00 - Act Now - Unplaced
Newton Abbot 14:30:00 - Ted Spread - Unplaced
Newton Abbot 17:05:00 - Arthur Burrell - Unplaced

We made a loss of 3 points on the day and have made a profit of 13.5305 points for October.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.712 points on the day and have made a profit of 16.863555 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 2.712 points on the day. We have made a profit of 12.884712 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSOct.xls

Something to make you smile

Adult Fairy Tale

Once upon a time there lived a King.

The King had a beautiful daughter, The PRINCESS.

But there was a problem. Everything the princess touched would melt.

No matter what;

Metal,

Wood,

Stone,

Anything she touched would melt.

Because of this, men were afraid of her. Nobody would dare marry her.

The King despaired. What could he do to help his daughter?

He consulted his wizards and magicians. One wizard told the King, 'If your daughter touches one thing that does not melt in her hands, she will be cured.'

The King was overjoyed and came up with a plan.

The next day, he held a competition. Any man that could bring his daughter an object that would not melt would marry her and inherit the King's wealth.

THREE YOUNG PRINCES TOOK UP THE CHALLENGE.

The first brought a sword of the finest steel.

But alas, when the Princess touched it, it melted.

The prince went away sadly .

The second prince brought diamonds.

He thought diamonds are the hardest substance in the world and would not melt.

But alas, once the Princess touched them, they melted.

He too was sent away disappointed.

The third prince approached. He told the Princess, 'Put your hand in my pocket and feel what is in there.'

The Princess did as she was told, though she turned red.

She felt something hard. She held it in her hand.

And it did not melt!!!

The King was overjoyed. Everybody in the kingdom was overjoyed.

And the third Prince married the Princess and they both lived happily ever after.

Question: What was in the Prince's pants?

M&M's of course.

They melt in your mouth, not in your hand.

What were you thinking?

I WORRY ABOUT YOU SOMETIMES!

Today

Today's early test ratings show 48 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards