Morning News

Good morning...

You know, at 14:15 yesterday I was tempted to send you all an email telling you that "It's Beer O'Clock!"

You see, by then the first two of the PBS selections had run and the profits that they had made us meant that, even if the other five lost, we'd still be in the money for the day.

However, I was sort of drawn (by a strange and weird magical force that I find myself totally unable to resist) to the terrasse of my local bar to have a nice cold Stella instead.

Which was kind of appropriate as four of the other five horses did, in fact, lose.

However, we still made a massive profit on the day.

Our top rated Cesarwitch selection (Quick Jack) only came third but it did pay 5.09 as a Betfair place bet. I've been looking at the other tipster/pundits suggestions and it seems that nobody called it better than that.

Having said that, it was a 34 horse race and how the hell do you rate that?

As a recompense (for not giving you a 100/1 Cesarwitch winner) I do have a joke for you but, you'll have to read the rest of the results first before you get to them.

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.39%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.02%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.57% from all 51 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 101.08 units returned to 136 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -25.68%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.08 units returned to 46 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -30.26%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 35.5 units returned to 46 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -22.83%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 44 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 33.5 units returned to 44 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -23.86%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Limerick 13:35:00 - The CSF paid 21.88

Limerick 14:05:00 - The CSF paid £1.58

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Hexham 15:35:00 - The CSF paid £15.99

Chelmsford (AW) 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £20.822

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Hexham 15:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £61.70

Chelmsford (AW) 18:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £24.30

Winners

From the 47 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Fairyhouse	14:20	Billbushay (1)	13.00	19.00
Limerick	15:45	Third Dimension (2)	5.50	5.60
York	16:35	Gleese The Devil (11)	6.00	6.55
Fairyhouse	16:40	Sounds Of Thunder (1)	11.00	16.32
Chepstow	17:05	Drop Out Joe (5)	6.00	6.40
Fairyhouse	17:15	Colla Pier (10)	7.00	8.97
Chelmsford (AW)	18:05	Rateel (9)	6.00	7.40
Chelmsford (AW)	18:40	Dheban (2)	6.00	9.08

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Chelmsford (AW) - 18:40:00 - Munira Eyes (5)

Races (over last year): 44 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 45.45% ROI: 133.62% AV SP: 2.94

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £148.00

Munira Eyes came 2nd.

Chancers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Newmarket - 15:10:00 - Twin Sails (7)

Races (over last year): 11 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 36.36% ROI: 463.59AV SP: 12.75

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £400.00

Twin Sails came 6th.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Limerick 13:35:00 - Hasselnott - 2nd - Betfair paid 4.3 for the place.
Chepstow 14:10:00 - Murray Mount - 2nd - Betfair paid 15.12 for the place.
Fairyhouse 14:20:00 - The Bay Mink - Unplaced
Limerick 14:40:00 - Diamond Avalanche - Unplaced
Chepstow 14:45:00 - Vodka Island - Unplaced
York 16:00:00 -Prying Pandora - 2nd - Betfair paid 3.0 for the place.
Fairyhouse 17:50:00 - Tajseer - Unplaced

We made a profit of 14.449 points on the day and have made a profit of 27.9795 points for October.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 11.854152 points on the day and have made a profit of 28.717707 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 11.854152 points on the day. We have made a profit of 24.738864 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSOct.xls

Something to make you smile

The Country House

At dawn the telephone rings. "Hello, Sir Humphrey? This is Declan, the caretaker at your country house."

"Ah yes, Declan. What can I do for you? Is there a problem?"

"Um, I am just calling to advise you, Sir Humphrey, that your parrot died"

"My parrot? Dead? The one that won the International competition?"

"Yes Sir, that's the one."

"Damn! That's a pity! I spent a small fortune on that bird. What did he die from?"

"From eating rotten meat." The caretaker replies.

"Rotten meat? Who the hell fed him rotten meat?"

"Nobody Sir Humphrey. He ate the meat of one of the dead horses."

"Dead horse? What dead horse?"

"The thoroughbred, Mr Lucky. The horse that won the big race at Goodwood, He died from all that work pulling the water cart."

"Are you insane? What water cart?"

"The one we used to put out the fire."

"Good gracious man! What fire are you talking about?"

"The one at your house! A candle fell and the curtains caught on fire."

"What the.....!!! But there's electricity at the house!!!! What was the candle for?"

"For the funeral."

"WHAT BLOODY FUNERAL?!"

"Your mother's, Sir Humphrey. She showed up one night out of the blue and I thought she was a thief, so I hit her with your new Tiger Woods Nike Driver."

SILENCE....................

TOTAL SILENCE....................

MORE SILENCE....................

EVEN MORE SILENCE....................

And then...

"Declan, if you broke that driver you're fired!"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

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