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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

I've had some interesting feedback about the Place Betting Strategy.

One member was kind enough to tell me that... "Just to let you know I am on top of the moon with your PLACE STRATEGY and making money at last from my betting THANKS TO YOU !!"

Thanks for your comments, V M

We had a difficult September (for the Place Betting Strategy) but, I did predict that.

Now, you really ought to know that I have been working my goolies off looking at another potential strategy as well.

This is just something that originally I was just going to keep to myself (for my own personal profit) but I now realise that I really ought to share it with you.

This is just something that I've noticed over the last year or so and it seems to make sense to me.

Think about the lowest yield horse (from the top three rated horses) for non-handicap races from just the first page of the ratings.

Yesterday there were 5 non-handicap races on the first page of the ratings; 4 out of those 4 lowest on yield horses won (there was one non-runner.)

And that's not such a surprise to me any more; I get surprised by those low 50% strike rate days that happen every now and again.

I do need to do some analysis to see whether it's better to do a Win bet or an Each Way bet but...

To be honest, without thinking about it too much, I do think that the win bet is the way to go.

I have a pile of printouts next to my PC; almost all of them have a big red tick on them for a Winning Day! I think that, over the last month, I've had about 4 or 5 losing days from this paper traded strategy.

Now, I do know that the prices won't be great for the horse that has the lowest yield but...

If you can get a strike rate of between 70% and 100%, do the prices really matter that much?

You need to be aware that I have not added any additional filters; I am very sure that, by cutting out certain race types and field sizes, the strike rate will certainly improve.

I feel a spreadsheet day coming on!

Yesterday's selections (for this potential strategy) were...

Limerick 13:05 Tigris River - won at 1.3 ISP

Curragh 13:25 Black Sea - won at 1.83 ISP

Limerick 13:35 Long Dog - won at 1.14 ISP

Curragh 13:55 Rainfull Raider - Non Runner

Chepstow 14:15 Adrien du Pont - won at 1.44

So, using ISP we have had a 100% strike rate with 5.71 points being returned to 4 points staked.

That equals a Profit on Investment of 42.75%

And, from my non-mathematical observations, that seems pretty normal.

Things would be far better by using Betfair win prices.

As always, any comments that you may have will be fully welcomed.

I guess that I ought to say that it is R4 (our current ratings algorithm) and our interpretation of how best to benefit from R4 that makes this happen.

The ratings will NEVER correctly predict the first, second and third horse in every race (in the right order) - horse racing isn't an exact science (if you want an exact science, look at F1; that is far easier to predict the winners in. Even Footie is easier than horse racing!)

But, if we can cancel out the inaccuracies in the Focus Ratings predictions and capitalise on the strengths from those predictions, then maybe we can profit from the sort of strategy that I have outlined above.

I think that this may end up being a Win Bet strategy that could complement our current (and long term) profitable Place Betting Strategy.

Anyway, enough of that, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.39%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.81%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 13.79% from all 29 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.71 units returned to 72 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -35.12%

Top Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the top rated horses from 23 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.94 units returned to 23 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -48.09%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the second rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.94 units returned to 24 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 37.25%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the third rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 1.83 units returned to 25 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -92.68%


There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Limerick 13:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.62

Limerick 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £11.09

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.


There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Limerick 13:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.60

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Chepstow 15:20:00 - The Tricast paid £57.86 - The Trifecta paid £46.80


From the 27 rated races there were 8 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Goodwood 14:00 Bold Runner (8) 26.00 32.30
Chepstow 15:20 Broughton (4) 5.50 6.20
Chepstow 17:00 Danimix (6) 6.50 7.90

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Fairyhouse 17:50:00 - Tajseer - Unplaced
Chepstow 14:15:00 - Social Climber - Unplaced
Goodwood 14:30:00 - Invigorate - 3rd - Betfair paid 4.39 for the place.
Limerick 16:20:00 - Rightville Boy - Unplaced

We made a profit of 1.2205 points on the day and have made a profit of 29.20 points for October.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 1.206501 points on the day and have made a profit of 27.511206 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 1.206501 points on the day. We have made a profit of 23.532363 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at…

Something to make you smile


Bob and his three golf buddies were out playing and were just starting on the back nine when Bob paused, looked down the fairway and began to sob uncontrollably.

The other three gathered around him and asked: "What's wrong?"

Bob looked down at his feet, sniffed and dried his eyes some, then apologized for his emotional outburst. "Im sorry, I always get emotional at this hole - it holds very difficult memories for me."

One of his buddies asked, "What happened? What could have gotten you so upset?"

Bob stared silently off in the distance, then said in a low voice, "This is where my wife and I were playing 12 years ago when she suddenly died of a heart attack; right at this very hole."

"Oh my God", the other golfers said. "That must have been horrible!"

,"Horrible?! You think it`s horrible?" Bob continued still very distressed. "It was worse than that! Every hole for the rest of the day, all the way back to the clubhouse it was hit the ball, drag Alice, hit the ball, drag Alice..."


Today's early test ratings show 23 rated races from three meetings.

Every race is rated.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards


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