Focus Ratings is a Uk and Irish Horse Racing ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m.  Wonderful results and an excellent strike rate.  Use Focus Ratings to win more money and make more profits from British and Irish Horse Racing.  The only horse racing system you'll ever need.

Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, first thing yesterday morning I fired up my programming machine and started computing the Average Times that I need in order to work out the Speed Ratings.

And, the lights dimmed all over Brittany!

Perhaps I'm exaggerating slightly but I swear that the Christmas lights in the village square switched off a second after I started running my code!

Maybe that was just a coincidence.

Anyway, after an hour, my laptop froze due to over-heating so I re-wrote the code to make it less processor intensive.

I'll explain what happened next later on in this post.

But, before that, I ought to talk a bit about yesterday's results...

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.57%.

Now, that's more like it!

Over 5% up on December 2013 and pretty close to my target of a 30% strike rate for the top rated horse.

Forecasts

There were three forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield 14:05 - The CSF paid £26.20.

Cheltenham 15:10 - The CSF paid £2.60.

Cheltenham 15:45 - The CSF paid £4.10.

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - three of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Southwell 12:05 Very First Blade 5.5 5.75
Tramore 12:45 Miss Faithfull 7.0 8.0
Wolverhampton 19:45 Earth Drummer 6.5 6.16

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Lingfield 11:35 - In the first race of the day we predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

2). Cheltenham 12:50 - Our second rated horse (Virak) was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted Un Ace to second rated horse. The race ended up with our top rated horse (Champagne West) winning and the newly promoted 2nd rated horse coming second. The new 3rd rated horse, Little Jon, ran off.

3). Southwell 13:15 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted the 2nd rated to top rated, the 3rd rated to 2nd rated and brought in Pearl Nation as the new 3rd rated horse. Pearl Nation won the race and our new 1st and 2nd rated horses came 3rd and 2nd respectively.

4). Lingfield 13:30 - We predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

5). Cheltenham 14:00 - Yesterday I mentioned that... The ratings are so close for the top three rated horses in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup there’s really nothing that I can say about it. Just looking at the numbers, it seems a bit odd that Workbench is top rated but, what do I know?

Well, Workbench fell (I do hope that I didn't put him off with my comment) and our top rated horse came second.

6). Lingfield 14:05 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £26.20.

7). Cheltenham 15:10 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £2.60.

I did mention yesterday that... In the Stan James International Hurdle the top two rated horses are clearly apart from the 3rd rated horse.

The ratings look pretty right to me and, amazingly, the comments bit at the bottom of The Racing Post’s card for this race agrees with the ratings.

I'm pretty happy with the way that the ratings read this race.

8). Cheltenham 15:45 - We got the forecast in this race. The CSF paid £4.10.

9). Wolverhampton 17:45 - Yesterday I mentioned that... The only other race that stands out is this maiden. The top rated horse has decent form and is dropping in class. No, I know nothing about horse racing and even less about Trainer’s strategies (although I am learning) but…

To my uneducated mind this looks very much as if the Trainer was dropping the horse in class to give the owner a confidence boosting win.

Or have I got this totally wrong?

Anyway, Secret Glance has a nice rating and a good confidence level.

Secret Glance came 3rd.

10). Wolverhampton 21:15 - We predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (and a Chancer's Bet)

Bankers Bet = All Weather Bankers - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 86% and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 150% and the Forecast Starting Price was less than 3.1

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 21:15:00 - Sir Billy Wright (3)

Races (over last year): 29 Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 75.86% ROI: 123.65% AV SP: 1.63%

Sir Billy Wright came second.

Chancers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 17:45:00 - Secret Glance (3)

Races (over last year): 30 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 66.67% ROI: 172.68% AV SP: 2.59%

Secret Glance came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades - you can see it here... Winter Upgrades

I am updating that post to show which upgrades have been implemented and, where possible, to indicate when I think that an upgrade may be implemented.

I didn't do any upgrades yesterday as I was, basically, standing by the overheating laptop with a fire extinguisher just in case...

Dutching

I did manage to get some more work done on Dutching.

I may be able to report on this tomorrow.

Speed Ratings

I've started work on the Speed Ratings.

And, that's all I can say!

It's going to take longer than I anticipated; not because I'm slow and stupid (although, undoubtably I certainly am) , but more because there is a lot (and I mean a lot) of data to crunch.

It certainly doesn't help that the official going has been wrong for an important number of races over the last few years.

200 (7)And I have to find some way to mathematically factor that in.

Still, I expect that it'll be worth it in the end and...

In the meantime, I'm going to ignore the smell of roasting computer processors...

And try to pretend that my hair isn't getting greyer by the hour and...

Just look on the bright side of life.

Anyway, what is the alternative?

Get grumpy and say something rude?

200 (9)

Early Birds and Early Morning Ratings

If you want to take a look at the early test ratings...

Today's 5am early test ratings are available here... Early Test Ratings

Today

The 5am early morning test ratings show 21 rated races from 3 meetings.

Nothing at all stands out from the early ratings so I'm not going to say anything about them.

Sometimes it's best not to struggle to come up with something,

Especially on what looks to be a pretty average day.

So, breakfast first (and Sunday is always Bacon Sarnie day - you can take the Brit out of Britain but you can never take Britain out of the Brit!)

And then back to number crunching all day long.

So, whatever you have planned for today...

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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