Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday was a day of "Almost, but not quite..."

This shows up by the number of high priced winners that we had - just not all from the top rated horse.

And also by the Qipco Champion Stakes (Ascot 15:05) where we got the first three, just not in the right order (the combination Trifecta paid £169.330.)

The new strategy that I'm looking at did rather well,

Just looking at the lowest yield top three rated horse from the first page of the ratings we got these results...

Ascot 12:45 - Flying Officer - 1st @ 7.0 ISP

Ascot 13:20 - Muhaarar - 1st @ 3.5 ISP

Catterick 13:40 - Kingsley Karion - 3rd

Ascot 13:55 - Covert Love - Unplaced

Ffos Las 14:00 - Coco des Champs - Unplaced

So, only a 40% strike rate but 10.5 points were returned to 5 points staked.

Being Sunday, I shall be taking today off but will be back, guns blazing, tomorrow.

Anyway, enough of that, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.74%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.83%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.45% from all 49 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 129.5 units returned to 137 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -5.47%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 46 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 37.4 units returned to 46 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -18.7%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 47 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.85 units returned to 47 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -51.38%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the third rated horses from 44 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 69.25 units returned to 44 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 57.39%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Catterick 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £3.08

Catterick 13:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.71

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Ffos Las 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £3.54

Ascot 13:20:00 - The CSF paid £9.65

Market Rasen 17:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.97

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Catterick 13:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £12.00

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ffos Las 15:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.70

Ascot 15:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £169.30

Stratford 17:15:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £215.10

Winners

From the 48 rated races there were 27 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 9 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Catterick	15:25	Arctic Feeling (7)	9.00	10.00
Ascot	15:05	Fascinating Rock (2)	11.00	11.15
Stratford	14:55	Carrigmorna King (6)	8.50	10.24
Ascot	12:45	Flying Officer (4)	7.00	7.60
Market Rasen	15:55	Viva Steve (4)	6.50	6.86
Catterick	16:00	Sellingallthetime (1)	9.00	9.21
Stratford	16:40	Arctic Gold (1)	12.00	15.18
Cork	17:20	Bunk Off Early (5)	6.50	6.23
Wolverhampton (AW)	20:15	Hamelin (1)	5.50	5.85

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Cork - 17:20:00 - Rainfall Radar (18)

Races (over last year): 27 Wins: 12 Strike Rate: 44.44% ROI: 146.21% AV SP: 3.29

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £124.80

Rainfall Radar came second.

Chancers Bet = Irish Logic - where R4 Status = 1 and the Horse\'s Average R4 is greater than 4.0 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Position last time out = Unplaced and where Country = IRE and Horse was NOT a Course Winner and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner

Selection = Back to ISP - Cork - 15:00:00 - Murmuration (8)

Races (over last year): 12 Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 41.67% ROI: 402.12AV SP: 9.65

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £362.50

Murmuration came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Ffos Las 14:00:00 - Rest and Be - 3rd - Betfair paid 1.58 for the place.
Market Rasen 14:05:00 - Raise a Spark - Unplaced
Catterick 14:15:00 - Becky the Thatcher - Unplaced
Stratford 14:20:00 - Memphis Magic - Unplaced
Market Rasen 17:35:00 - Movie Legend - Unplaced

We made a loss of 3.449 points on the day and have made a profit of 22.2815.7305 points for October.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 3.320844 points on the day and have made a profit of 21.34005 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 4.068 points on the day. We have made a profit of 17.527317 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSOct.xls

Something to make you smile

A man’s wife went missing and being that everyone knew that he and his wife were in a big fight he was accused of murdering her and disposing of the body.

When witness after witness came to the stand testifying to all sorts of horrible threats that the accused threatened his wife and things were looking quite dim for the accused the man’s lawyer got up to the stand.

“Ladies and Gentleman of the jury I have something quite exciting to tell you, if you would all please direct your attention towards the door behind me on my left you will see the supposedly dead women walk in on her own two feet.”

There was a loud murmuring in the courtroom as all eyes turned towards the door.

“Ladies and Gentleman” said the lawyer after a few seconds of anxious waiting, “To be honest with you, Nobody is going to be walking through the door, however from the fact that your eyes all turned towards the door it is quite obvious that you are not sure beyond the shadow of a doubt about my client’s guilt.”

To the lawyer’s great surprise, the jury decided that the man was guilty.

“But how could you say that he is guilty? Didn’t I prove it to you?” Questioned the lawyer.

“It is true that we all turned towards the door,” one old lady explained, “but there was one person who didn’t.”

“Who was that?” Questioned the indignant lawyer.

“Your client.” Came the reply.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards