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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

A few of you have asked about the New Strategy so I will talk about where we currently are...

For a while now I have observed that there are good returns to be had by backing the lowest on yield (from the top three rated horses) in non-handicap races from the first page of the normal ratings only.

I wrote a post about it here....

And followed up with another post here...

I need to do a bit more work to finish it off but I've been watching it for a few months now and it seems pretty consistent.

We obviously need to work out a cut off point; I've been noticing that it's the first page of the ratings that works but we need to take into account those days where there are 7 meetings in the same way that we handle those days when there are only 3 meetings.

I have a feeling that we'll end up with a rule along the lines of... "Choose the first X number of races (where X equals the number of meetings) plus 2" or something similar.

Currently, the rules are...

1). No Irish races.

2). Only use races with 3 to 14 runners.

Yesterday the results were...

Catterick 12:40 - Furiant - 1st @ 2.25 ISP

Lingfield 13:00 - Arab Poet - 1st @ 1.73 ISP

Punchestown 13:15 - De Name Escapes Me - Unplaced

Lingfield 13:30 - Ennaadd - 2nd @ 2.25

Punchestown 13:45 - How's Patsy - 4th @ 4.0 ISP

We've already determined that the Irish races should be avoided.

And, before you ask, there is no place betting strategy here - the prices are just too small (although the Strike Rate is amazing.)

So, by implementing the existing rules we would have had 3 selections, two of which won and brought in 3.98 points returned to 3 points staked.

Not a "Hey, let's choose an Aston Martin" type return but, if we can do that every day (to £2 stakes) then you'll have enough money to pay your subs and go out for a nice meal for two once a month.

Especially if you add in the Place Betting Strategy.

Now, I don't really like talking about BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) because it's difficult to quantify but...

These low priced horses might yield more profit by using BOG.

I have got a post sort of lined up to explain when to use BOG - it's interesting that you can sometimes get a better BOG price if you wait a bit; I think that I have a formula which should help us identify this.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.14%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 77.63 units returned to 90 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -13.74%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25.15 units returned to 29 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -13.28%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.73 units returned to 31 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -23.45%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 30 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.75 units returned to 30 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -4.17%


There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Punchestown 16:25:00 - The CSF paid £3.55

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.


There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.


From the 32 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Punchestown 13:45 Bowenscourt (7) 10.00 13.50
Punchestown 14:20 Realta Rathcabhain (8) 6.50 7.66
Bangor-on-Dee 15:00 Lady Yeats (10) 11.00 12.95
Lingfield (AW) 15:10 Starlit Cantata (2) 7.00 6.60
Wolverhampton (AW) 17:10 Oil Strike (1) 5.50 5.89
Wolverhampton (AW) 19:10 Lacey (2) 5.50 6.60

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Punchestown 13:15:00 - Midfield General - Unplaced
Punchestown 13:45:00 - Too Many Notes - 3rd - Betfair paid 4.07 for the place
Bangor-on-Dee 15:00:00 - Lady Yeats - 1st - Betfair paid 3.65 for the place
Bangor-on-Dee 16:30:00 - Holy Cross - Unplaced

We made a profit of 3.434 points on the day and have made a profit of 21.185 for October.

For the new strategy we made a profit of 4.656504 points on the day and have made a profit of 22.532652 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 4.656504 points for the day. We have made a profit of 19.266048 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at…

Something to make you smile

Another joke supplied by David O.


A truckie who has been out on the road for three weeks stops off at a brothel outside Kalgoorlie ..

He walks straight up to the Madam, drops down $500 and says, “I want your ugliest woman and a burnt chop!”

The Madam is astonished. “But sir, for that kind of money you could have one of my finest ladies and a lovely three-course meal.”

The truckie replies, “I'm not horny . . . . ... I'm homesick!”

And one from Derek H.

Bridge - And I thought that was a civilised game!

A cleaning woman was applying for a new position.

When asked why she left her last employment, she replied, "Yes sir, they paid good wages, but it was the most ridiculous place I ever worked.

They played a game called Bridge, and last night lots of folks were there.

As I was about to bring in the refreshments, I heard a man say "Lay down and let's see what you've got."

Another man said "I've got strength but no length."

Another man said to a lady, "Take your hand off my trick."

I pretty near dropped dead just then when the lady answered, "You jumped me twice when you didn't have the strength for one raise."

Another lady was talking about her protecting her honor, and two other ladies said, "Now it's time for me to play with your husband and you can play with mine."

Well, I just got my hat and coat and as I was leaving, I hope to die if I didn't hear someone say, "Well I guess we'll go home now, that was the last rubber.


Today's early test ratings show 35 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards


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