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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

A less than stellar day, yesterday but I was sort of tied up trying to build a contingency plan so that, if my main machine fails, I have at least two other backup machines to fall back on.

I have a horrible feeling that my main machine is about to fail!

Strangely enough, it was profitable to have blindly backed the 2nd or 3rd rated horses - we just missed out on the top rated ones.

I did try to get some work done on the new strategy and I have, at least, got the basic data set (two years of data, only UK races with 3 to 14 runners and only the lowest on yield from the top three rated horses) prepared.

I hope to do the number crunching on this data set today.

Yesterday the results were...

Nottingham 12:50 - Daqeeq - NR

Nottingham 13:20 - So Celbre - 2nd

Chelmsford 13:30 - Velvet Revolution - 3rd

Nottingham 13:50 - Custom - Unplaced

Chelmsford 14:00 - Space Artist - 1st @ 3.25

So, we got 3.75 points returned to 4.0 points staked; a failure but, in the scheme of things, I don't think that it matters too much.

Our existing Place Betting Strategy made a slight profit for the third day in a row.

As well as trying to work out a cut off point for the new strategy, I also have to do some work with Clickbank today to sort out the upcoming price rise (it doesn't affect you.)

So, lots of work and...

It's market day today and the weekly village market is always a tempting distraction for me!

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15.63%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.29%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15.79% from all 38 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 100.04 units returned to 100 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 0.040000000000006%

Top Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.62 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -35.56%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 36.55 units returned to 33 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 10.76%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 35 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 42.87 units returned to 35 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 22.49%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Kempton (AW) 18:55:00 - The CSF paid £25.60

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Dundalk (AW) 19:05:00 - The CSF paid £3.54

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Nottingham 13:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £70.80

Dundalk (AW) 17:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £11.40

Dundalk (AW) 18:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £88.40

Winners

From the 35 rated races there were 18 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Nottingham 12:50 Rainbow Dreamer (7) 8.00 8.40
Nottingham 13:20 Zoffanys Pride (9) 8.00 8.42
Nottingham 14:50 Cousin Khee (4) 10.00 12.28
Fakenham 15:40 Milgen Bay (2) 8.00 9.39
Chelmsford (AW) 16:00 Catsbury (3) 6.00 7.11
Kempton (AW) 16:55 Tyrsal (3) 15.00 14.92
Kempton (AW) 17:25 Showmethewayavrilo (5) 6.00 6.20
Kempton (AW) 18:55 Revision (6) 8.00 8.38

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Nottingham 12:50:00 - Torremar - Unplaced
Nottingham 13:20:00 - Zoffany's Pride - 1st
Chelmsford 14:00:00 - Go Nani Go - 2nd

We made a profit of 0.354 points on the day and have made a profit of 21.439 for October.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.428496 points on the day and have made a profit of 22.104156 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a profit of 0.811566 points for the day. We have made a profit of 20.077614 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSOct.xls

Something to make you smile

Another joke supplied by David O. Something for any of you golfers out there...

CONFESSIONS OF A GOLFER'S WIFE

A couple was having dinner one evening when the husband reached across the table, took his wife's hand in his and said, "Beth, soon we will be married 30 years, and there's something I have to know. In all of these 30 years, have you ever been unfaithful to me?"

Beth replied, Charles, I have to be honest with you. Yes, I've been unfaithful to you on three occasions during these 30 years, but always for a good reason."

Charles was obviously hurt by his wife's confession, but said, ever suspected. Can you tell me what you mean by 'good reasons'?"

Beth said, very first time was shortly after we were married, and we were about to lose our little house because we couldn't pay the mortgage. Do you remember that one evening I went to see the banker and the next day he notified you that the loan would be extended?"

Charles recalled the visit to the banker and said, "I can forgive you for that. You saved our home, but what about the second time?"

Beth asked, "And do you remember when you were so sick, but we didn't have the money to pay for the heart surgery you needed? Well, I went to see your doctor one night and, if you recall, he did the surgery at no charge."

"I recall that," says Chuck. "And you did it to save my life, so of course I can forgive you for that. Now tell me about the third time."

"All right," Beth said. "So do you remember when you ran for president of your golf club, and you needed 73 more votes"?"

And one from Derek H.

Hair Cut.

A teenage boy had just passed his driving test and inquired of his father as to when they could discuss his use of the car.

His father said he'd make a deal with his son,

"You bring your grades up from a C to a B average, study your Bible a little, and get your hair cut. Then we'll talk about the car."

The boy thought about that for a moment, then decided he'd settle for the offer, and they agreed on it.

After about six weeks his father said, "Son, you've brought your grades up and I've observed that you have been studying your Bible, but I'm not pleased that you haven't had your hair cut."

The boy said, "You know, Dad, I've been thinking about that, and I've noticed in my studies of the Bible that Samson had long hair, John the Baptist had long hair, Moses had long hair, and there's even strong evidence that Jesus had long hair."

To which his Father replied,

"Did you also notice they all walked everywhere they went?

And, finally, one from me...

Venus and Mars

I never quite figured out why the sexual urges of men and women differ so much.

And I never have figured out the whole Venus and Mars thing.

I have never figured out why men think with their head and women with their heart.

FOR EXAMPLE...

One evening last week, my girlfriend and I were getting into bed.

Well, the passion starts to heat up, and she eventually says, 'I don't feel like it, I just want you to hold me.'

I said, 'WHAT??!! What was that?!'

So she says the words that every boyfriend on the planet dreads to hear...

'You're just not in touch with my emotional needs as a woman enough for me to satisfy your physical needs as a man.'

She responded to my puzzled look by saying, 'Can't you just love me for who I am and not what I do for you in the bedroom?'

Realizing that nothing was going to happen that night, I went to sleep.

The very next day I opted to take the day off of work to spend time with her.

We went out to a nice lunch and then went shopping at Harrods.

I walked around with her while she tried on several different very expensive outfits.

She couldn't decide which one to take, so I told her we'd just buy them all.

She wanted new shoes to compliment her new clothes, so I said, 'Lets get a pair for each outfit.'

We went on to the jewellery department where she picked out a pair of diamond earrings.

Let me tell you... she was so excited.

She must have thought I was one wave short of a shipwreck.

I started to think she was testing me because she asked for a tennis bracelet when she doesn't even know how to play tennis.

I think I threw her for a loop when I said, 'That's fine, honey.'

She was almost nearing sexual satisfaction from all of the excitement.

Smiling with excited anticipation, she finally said, 'I think this is all dear, let's go to the cashier.'

I could hardly contain myself when I blurted out, 'No honey, I don't feel like it.'

Her face just went completely blank as her jaw dropped with a baffled, 'WHAT?'

I then said, 'Honey! I just want you to HOLD this stuff for a while. You're just not in touch with my financial needs as a man enough for me to satisfy your shopping needs as a woman.'

And just when she had this look like she was going to kill me, I added, 'Why can't you just love me for who I am and not for the things I buy you?'

Apparently I'm not having sex tonight either...

Today

Today's early test ratings show 33 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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