Morning News

Good morning...

Although a disappointing day for the strike rate,

You would have made a profit had you blindly done the forecast in every race.

And our Banker's Bet won, as well.

We made a slight loss from the Place Betting Strategy but we are so far in profit that, with only two days left, it'll be impossible to end up with a losing month.

I'm taking a break from my analysis on the new strategy today as one of the members has been doing his own analysis and has come up with an alternative angle and I need to check that out.

However, work will continue tomorrow and I'm going to try and wrap it up over the weekend.

Anyway, enough of that, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.75%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.21%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.14% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 104.06 units returned to 97 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 7.28%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.58 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -38.81%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 40.1 units returned to 32 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 25.31%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 44.38 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 34.48%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 12:50:00 - The CSF paid £5.48

Sedgefield 13:00:00 - The CSF paid £7.50

Clonmel 14:55:00 - The CSF paid £38.93

Lingfield (AW) 15:50:00 - The CSF paid £4.05

Reverse Forecasts

There were 0 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Clonmel 13:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £3.40

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Lingfield (AW)	14:20	Urban Castle (7)	17.00	17.50
Clonmel	14:55	Kennedys Mor (7)	6.50	7.00
Sedgefield	15:00	Royale Knight (2)	11.00	12.74
Clonmel	15:25	Elegant Statesman (2)	5.50	5.90
Chelmsford (AW)	18:40	Secret Asset (7)	9.00	9.60
Chelmsford (AW)	19:10	Rosie Crowe (10)	21.00	28.88
Chelmsford (AW)	19:40	Ela Goog La Mou (1)	7.00	8.10

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Wonders - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 28 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60% and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Chelmsford (AW) - 17:40:00 - Cornelious (2)

Races (over last year): 58 Wins: 33 Strike Rate: 56.90% ROI: 163.30% AV SP: 2.87

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £367.10

Cornelious won @ 1.53 (1.61 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = NH Chase - Mares who are top rated and came 3rd last time out. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and Horse = Mare and where Position last time out = Third

Selection = Back to ISP - Stratford - 13:40:00 - Faustina Pius (3)

Races (over last year): 17 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 35.29% ROI: 189.86AV SP: 5.38

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £152.80

Faustina Plus came third.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Clonmel 13:55:00 - For Pedro - 3rd - Betfair paid 2.52 for the place.
Stratford 14:10:00 - Tijori - Unplaced
Clonmel 15:55:00 - Queen's Wild - Unplaced
Stratford 16:10:00 - Kap Jazz - Unplaced

We made a loss of 0.556 points on the day and have made a profit of 20.439 for October.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.753936 points on the day and have made a profit of 21.35022 points for October.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.753936 points for the day. We have made a profit of 19.32678 points for October.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSOct.xls

Today

Today's early test ratings show 39 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards