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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, another horrible day for the Place betting strategy.

I don't know what is happening here but, as the strategy is based on the last 2 year's of data (and is profitable based upon that data), I can only hope that this is just a blip and that we will return to profits as predicted.

I am still working on the new Lowest on Yield (first page of the ratings only) Strategy.

And I think that I am getting close (or, at least, closer) to an answer to the new Lowest on Yield Strategy.

Yesterday the results were...

Musselburgh 13:00 - The Compeller - 3rd

Hexham 13:20 - Nuts Well - 1st @ 4.0

Musselburgh 13:30 - Brise Vendeenne - 2nd

Fontwell 13:40 - Sandygate - 3rd

Hexham 13:50 - It is I - NR

Fontwell 14:10 - Emily Grey - 1st @ 2.25

So, we had 6.25 points returned to 5 points staked.

Which equals an ISP profit of 1.25 points based upon 5 points staked.

If we'd used Betfair SP, the two winners would have given us 4.97 (Nuts Well) and 2.18 (Emily Gray) which would have given us 4.902 points profit on the two winning bets and 3 points deducted for the three losing bets.

Thus a Betfair SP profit of 1.902 points for 5 points staked.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.24%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.24% from all 33 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 68.43 units returned to 95 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -27.97%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.48 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -32.87%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 30 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15 units returned to 30 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -50%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.95 units returned to 33 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -3.18%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Musselburgh 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £6.52

Dundalk (AW) 19:00:00 - The CSF paid £4.96

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Musselburgh 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £3.93

Fontwell 16:10:00 - The CSF paid £14.46

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 5 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Musselburgh 13:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £16.70

Musselburgh 15:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.60

Fontwell 16:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £44.40

Dundalk (AW) 18:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £24.30

Chelmsford (AW) 19:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £16.10

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 17 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Hexham 15:50 Dusky Bob (5) 13.00 14.50
Fontwell 16:10 Clondaw Cian (4) 5.50 5.52
Chelmsford (AW) 19:10 Exentricity (5) 5.50 6.20
Dundalk (AW) 20:00 Settle For Red (8) 7.00 8.40

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Hexham 13:20:00 - The Toft - Unplaced
Hexham 13:50:00 - Valnamixe du Mee - Unplaced
Fontwell 14:10:00 - Ebony Express - Unplaced

We made a loss of 3 points on the day and have made a loss of 13.1145 for November.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 3.39 points on the day and have made a loss of 11.003262 points for November.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 3.39 points on the day and have made a loss of 11.003262 points for November.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSNov.xls

Something to make you smile

Firstly, one from Terry B.

The Party

Did you hear about the man who lost his wife at a party.

He came across a lady with large breasts.

He said to her, "do you mind if I talk to you for a while?

She said... "Ok,but why>"

He said, "I have lost my wife here somewhere and soon as she sees me talking to someone, with breasts like yours she will be over here like a rat up a drain pipe!"

Boom Boom!

And one from me...

The Interview

John and Terry both applied for an engineering position on an oil rig.

Terry came from a council estate in Liverpool and Jogn came from Surbiton and had been to university.

Both applicants had had the same level of experience and were, thus, asked to take a test by the manager.

Upon completion of the test, both men only missed one of the questions.

The manager went to Terry and said: "Thank you for your interest, but we've decided to give the posh got the job."

Terry asked: "And why are you giving him the job? We both got nine questions correct. Is it 'cos I'm just a guy from a council estate in Liverpool and I didn't go to university?"

The manager said: "We have made our decision not on the correct answers, but rather on the one question that you both missed."

Terry then asked: "And just how would one incorrect answer be better than the other?"

The manager replied: "Terry, its like this. On question 4 the posh git from Surbiton put down; "I don't know."

You put down, "Neither do I."

And, finally, an oldie (but a goodie) from my file of old but good jokes that may one day just come in handy...

This year's Darwin award winners...

It's that time again!

The awards this year are classic.

These awards are given each year to bestow upon (the remains of) that individual, who through single-minded self-sacrifice, has done the most to remove
undesirable elements from the human gene pool.

5th RUNNER-UP Goes to a San Anselmo, California man who died when he hit a lift tower at the Mammoth Mountain ski area while riding down the slope on a foam pad.

The 22-year old David Hubal was pronounced dead at Central Mammoth Hospital.

The accident occurred about 3a.m.,the Mono County Sheriff's department said.

Hubal and his friends apparently had hiked up a ski run called Stump Alley and undid some yellow foam protectors from lift towers, said Lt.Mike Donnelly of the Mammoth Lakes Police Department.

The pads are used to protect skiers who might hit towers.

The group apparently used the pads to slide down the ski slope and Hubal crashed into a tower. It has since been investigated and determined the tower he hit was the one with its pad removed.

4th RUNNER-UP Goes to Robert Puelo, 32, was apparently being disorderly in a St. Louis market.

When the clerk threatened to call the police, Puelo grabbed a hot dog, shoved it into his mouth and walked out without paying.

Police found him unconscious in front of the store.

Paramedics removed the six-inch sausage from his throat where it had choked him to death.

3rd RUNNER-UP Goes to poacher Marino Malerba of Spain, who shot a stag standing above him on an overhanging rock and was killed instantly when it fell on him.

2nd RUNNER-UP "Man loses face at party."

A man at a West Virginia party (probably related to the winner last year, a man in Arkansas who used the .22 bullet to replace the fuse in his pickup truck) popped a blasting cap into his mouth and bit down, triggering an explosion that blew off his lips, teeth, and tongue.

Jerry Stromyer, 24, of Kincaid, bit the blasting cap as a prank during the party late Tuesday night, said Cpl. M.D. Payne. "Another man had it in an aquarium hooked to a battery and was trying to explode it."

"It wouldn't go off and this guy said I'll show you how to set it off."

He put it into his mouth, bit down and it blew all his teeth out and his lips and tongue off, Payne said.

Stromyer was listed in guarded condition Wednesday with extensive facial injuries, according to a spokesperson at Charleston Area Medical Division. "I just can't imagine anyone doing something like that," Payne said.

1st RUNNER-UP Doctors at Portland University Hospital said an Oregon man shot through the skull by a hunting arrow is lucky to be alive and will
be released soon from the hospital.

Tony Roberts, 25, lost his right eye last weekend during an initiation into a men's rafting club, Mountain Men Anonymous (probably known now as Stupid Mountain Men Anonymous) in Grant's Pass, Oregon.

A friend tried to shoot a beer can off his head, but the arrow entered Robert's right eye.

Doctors said that had the arrow gone 1 millimeter to the left, a major blood vessel would have been cut and Roberts would have died instantly.

Neurosurgeon Doctor Johnny Delashaw at the University Hospital in Portland said the arrow went through 8 to 10 inches of brain with the tip protruding at the rear
of his skull, yet somehow managed to miss all major blood vessels.

Delashaw also said that had Roberts tried to pull the arrow out on his own he surely would have killed himself.

Roberts admitted afterwards that he and his friends had been drinking that afternoon.

Said Roberts, "I feel so dumb about this."

No charges have been filed, but the Josephine County district attorney's office said the initiation stunt is under investigation.

Now THIS YEAR'S WINNER.

(The late) John Pernicky and his friend, (the late) Sal Hawkins, of the great state of Washington, decided to attend a local Metallica concert
at the George Washington amphitheater.

Having no tickets (but having had 18 beers between them), they thought it would be easy to "hop" over the nine foot fence and sneak into the show.

They pulled their pickup truck over to the fence and the plan was for Mr. Pernicky, who was 100-pounds heavier than Mr. Hawkins to hop the fence and then assist his friend over.

Unfortunately for (the late) Mr. Pernicky, there was a 30-foot drop on the other side of the fence.

Having heaved himself over, he found himself crashing through a tree.

His fall was abruptly halted (and broken, along with his arm) by a large branch that snagged him by his shorts.

Dangling from the tree with a broken arm, he looked down and saw some bushes below him.

Possibly figuring the bushes would break his fall, he removed his pocket knife and proceeded to cut away his shorts to free himself from the tree.

Finally free, Mr. Pernicky crashed into holly bushes.

The sharp leaves scratched his ENTIRE body and now, without the protection of his shorts, a holly branch penetrated his rectum.

To make matters worse, on landing, his pocket knife penetrated his thigh. Mr. Hawkins, seeing his friend in considerable pain and agony, threw him a rope and pull him to safety by tying the rope to the pickup truck and slowly driving away.

However, in his drunken haste/state, he put the truck into reverse and crashed through the fence landing on his friend and killing him.

Police arrived to find the crashed pickup with its driver thrown 100 feet from the truck, and dead at the scene from massive internal injuries.

Upon moving the truck, they found John under it, half-naked, scratches on his body, a holly stick in his rectum, a knife in his thigh, and his shorts dangling from a tree branch 25-feet in the air.

Congratulations gentlemen, you win...

And, you know what really worries me?

I think that that last joke was all pulled from actual USA police reports from about 5 years ago!

Today

Today's early test ratings show 36 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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