Morning News

Good morning...

A bit of a nothing day for me.

I didn't watch the results coming in and there weren't really any surprises.

Today I shall be taking an in depth look at the Place Betting Strategy as the current losing run is something that wasn't witnessed on the 2 years of sample data.

There will be a reason for it and I just need to work out what it is.

I have noticed that many of the "unplaced" horses actually don't finish the race (they've pulled up or run off) and I need to check to see if this happens more often at the start of the Jumps season.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.14%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.58%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20% from all 35 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 84.09 units returned to 90 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -6.57%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.34 units returned to 29 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -33.31%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 30 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 37.75 units returned to 30 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 25.83%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 27 units returned to 31 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -12.9%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Ayr 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £14.29

Exeter 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £6.74

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Bangor-on-Dee 13:00:00 - The CSF paid £14.61

Exeter 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £34.75

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Ayr 15:50:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £133.80

Winners

From the 31 rated races there were 17 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ayr	13:20	Comragh (9)	8.00	9.80
Ayr	15:50	My Little Cracker (5)	11.00	11.98
Kempton (AW)	18:40	Ripoll (5)	8.00	8.57
Kempton (AW)	19:10	Consulting (2)	11.00	15.50
Dundalk (AW)	21:00	Brokopondo (6)	7.00	7.20

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Ayr 13:20:00 - Fairy Theater - Unplaced
Kempton 19:40:00 - Intransigent - Unplaced

We made a loss of 2 points on the day and have made a loss of 23.528 for November.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 2.034 points on the day and have made a loss of 19.699968 points for November.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of .0678 points on the day and have made a loss of 18.461262 points for November.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSNov.xls

Something to make you smile

Two from Derek H.

You're growing tired. Your eyelids are getting heavy.

You feel very sleepy now.

You are gradually losing your willpower and your ability to resist suggestions.

When you hear the tone you will feel helplessly compelled to leave your name, number, and a message.

There was once a young man who, in his youth, professed his desire to become a great writer.

When asked to define "great" he said, "I want to write stuff that the whole world will read, stuff that people will react to on a truly emotional level, stuff that will make them scream, cry, howl in pain and anger!"

He now works for Microsoft, writing error messages.

And one from me...

Think About It

I had amnesia once - or twice.

Protons have mass? I didn't even know they were Catholic.

All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.

I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous.

If the world was a logical place, men would ride horses sidesaddle.

What is a "free" gift? Aren't all gifts free?

They told me I was gullible .. and I believed them.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to edge his car onto a motorway.

Two can live as cheaply as one, for half as long.

Experience is the thing you have left when everything else is gone.

What if there were no hypothetical questions?

One nice thing about egotists: They don't talk about other people.

When the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem begins to look like a nail.

A flashlight is a carrying case for dead batteries.

What was the greatest thing before sliced bread?

I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not sure.

The cost of living hasn't affected its popularity.

How can there be self-help "groups"?

Is there another word for synonym?

Where do forest rangers go to "get away from it all"?

Is it possible to be totally partial?

Is Marx's tomb a communist plot?

If swimming is so good for your figure, how do you explain whales?

Show me a man with both feet firmly on the ground, and I'll show you a man who can't get his pants off.

It's not an optical illusion. It just looks like one.

Is it my imagination, or do buffalo wings taste like chicken?

Today

Today's early test ratings show 32 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards