Focus Ratings is a Uk and Irish Horse Racing ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m.  Wonderful results and an excellent strike rate.  Use Focus Ratings to win more money and make more profits from British and Irish Horse Racing.  The only horse racing system you'll ever need.

Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Consistency is really what I'm after.

A ratings service really does need to be consistent.

And, for the last two days we've had exactly a 25% strike rate for the top rated horse.

Obviously, I'd rather have a consistent 30% strike rate but,

You can only use the ratings if you know that they're going to give you the same quality of information every day.

Now, I have something important to tell you about the Speed Ratings and my Dutching research,

But, before I get onto that stuff, let's look at yesterday's results....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.00%.

Now, this isn't something to shout about but I'm actually quite cool about it.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Southwell 15:00 - The CSF paid £8.24

Kempton 15:50 - The CSF paid £1.33

Tricast

There were one tricast yesterday.

Kempton 14:50 - The Trifecta paid £2.40

Winners

From the 20 rated races there were 10 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - one of those was at a nice price.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Southwell 13:55 Pancake Day 11.0 13.61

Comments...

Here's the actual review of some of the races...

1). Southwell 12:25 - We predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

2). Southwell 13:55 - Our top rated horse (in a 14 horse handicap) won this race at a rather nice price of 11.0 ISP (13.61 BSP.)

3). Catterick 14:40 - We predicted the first three horses - unfortunately in the wrong order.

4). Kempton 14:50 - We predicted the first three horses - this time in the right order. The Trifecta paid £2.40.

5). Southwell 15:00 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £8.24.

6). Kempton 15:50 - We got the Forecast in this race. The CSF paid £1.33.

7). Kempton 16:50 - Our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted the remaining horses and brought in What a Party as the new 3rd rated horse.

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We ended up getting the first 3 horses from our new top three rated. Unfortunately they weren't in the right order but, the Trifecta did pay £50.70

I only mention this as there is a possible strategy of using the Live Ratings to do a silly forecast or tricast (or reverse forecast or combination tricast/trifecta) in races where our top rated horse becomes a non-runner. Especially in smaller races like this one.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 15:00:00 - Satellite Express (7)

Races (over last year): 31 Wins: 19 Strike Rate: 61.29% ROI: 158.74% AV SP: 2.59%

Satellite Express won at 3.25 ISP (3.39 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton (AW) - 15:50:00 - Elysian Fields (4)

Races (over last year): 31 Wins: 19 Strike Rate: 61.29% ROI: 158.74% AV SP: 2.59%

Elysian Fields won at 1.2 ISP (1.21 BSP.)

It's good news that both selections won!

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On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

I've been in a bit of a rush trying to do the Winter Upgrades whilst creating the Speed Ratings and, to cap it all, trying to continue my work on Ducthing whilst...

Doing these Morning News posts every day.

Well, what I'm trying to say is that I came to the conclusion, yesterday, that it's probably a bit too much for me to do all at the same time.

You know that you're getting stressed when you start swearing at the computer and...

You hear the computer swearing back!

That's pretty much what happened to me yesterday and, when it did, I got in the car and went for a long drive to try and work things out.

As a result, I've decided to re-jig my schedule slightly and accept that God only put 24 hours in a day for a good reason.

I'll explain, in detail, below...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades - you can see it here... Winter Upgrades

I am updating that post to show which upgrades have been implemented and, where possible, to indicate when I think that an upgrade may be implemented.

I am getting back on to the Winter Upgrades today.

I need to get the Builder stuff done before the end of the year so that I can start including the currently un-rated races.

I'll update you tomorrow on what I get done today.

Dutching

I'm planning to get one Winter Upgrade done every day and then spend the rest of the day continuing on Dutching.

Thus, my work on Dutching is going to take a slight second place.

Speed Ratings

The problem with the Speed Ratings is the sheer amount of data that I have to work with.

Let's say that there are an average of 5 meetings a day...

And 12 horses in each of the seven races in each meeting.

That means, there are about 14,000 runners every year.

I need to work on at least 2 years of data to get statistically significant results.

For the winning horses, it's not so much of a problem but, for all the other horses I have to work out how much slower they were than the winning horse.

So, I have to compute (for each of them) how much (in amount of time) a length is.

This obviously varies according to the actual speed of each particular race.

And that's a lot of computing.

And, until all that is done...

I won't be able to compute any Speed Ratings.

Thus, the work will continue but I won't have much to say about it until all the numbers are crunched.

Early Birds and Early Morning Ratings

If you want to take a look at the early test ratings...

Today's 5am early test ratings are available here... Early Test Ratings

Today

Today's ratings show 27 races from 4 meetings.

The profile looks similar to yesterday and I'm willing to bet you a whole 10 centimes that we come in with a strike rate of 25%.

Ludlow 12:20 - A 16 runner race with an RC1 of only 26%. This is a race that, to my eyes, you might want to steer clear of.

Nothing else really stands out but I am a bit interested in...

Lingfield 13:30 - Pat Eddery's only horse at the meeting is our top rated horse and is dropping in class. The second rated horse is rising in class (with some pretty poor form.)

Anyway, in no way is that a tip; it's just a race where I'll be interested in looking at the results.

So, as always...

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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