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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, I seem to be juggling a lot of balls at the moment...

I'm trying to analyse why the Place Betting Strategy isn't working as well as it should (more of which later)...

And trying to come up with the new Lowest on Yield Strategy and.

And also trying to get R5 out there (that's the biggie but I need to get everything else right first.)

As far as the new "Lowest on Yield Strategy" is concerned...

Yesterday's results were...

Southwell 12:20 - Walk Like a Giant - Unplaced

Southwell 12:50 - Zio Gianni - 3rd

Clonmel 12:55 - Jetstream Jack - 1st at 1.9 ISP (1.99 BSP.)

Southwell 13:20 - Ada Misobel - 2nd

There's obviously a lot more work required - the one winning race (at Clonmel) shouldn't be allowed as we've sort of decided not to include Irish races.

I feel that the answer to how many races to include will be something along the lines of... "If there are 3 meetings, choose the first three non-handicap races for that day. If there are 4 meetings, choose the first four non-handicap races for that day. And, so on."

I don't have any decent statistics for that as yet but, it does seem to be the way to go.

Also, it does seem to be important to ignore those races where there isn't much difference between the lowest on yield and the next lowest on yield.

I need to find the cutoff point for that.

I'll be asking some questions in the Place Betting Strategy section lower down on this email/post.
Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.48%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.38%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.78% from all 36 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 86.2 units returned to 92 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -6.3%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.97 units returned to 29 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 6.79%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the second rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 44 units returned to 32 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 37.5%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.23 units returned to 31 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -63.77%


There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £6.28

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Ludlow 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £32.64


There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 13:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £43.10

Clonmel 14:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £14.30

Clonmel 14:55:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.80


From the 32 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Southwell (AW) 13:50 Keep It Dark (6) 15.00 17.85
Taunton 15:40 Howlongisafoot (3) 5.50 5.90
Chelmsford (AW) 16:55 Fable Of Arachne (9) 8.00 9.68
Chelmsford (AW) 19:25 Wink Oliver (4) 6.00 7.60
Chelmsford (AW) 19:55 Kristal Hart (2) 6.00 8.18

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Wonders - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 28 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60% and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Southwell (AW) - 13:20:00 - Bahamian Sunshine (1)

Races (over last year): 59 Wins: 33 Strike Rate: 55.93% ROI: 159.96% AV SP: 2.86

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £353.80

Bahamian Sunshine won @ 4.50 ISP (4.85 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Clonmel 12:55:00 - Loughmore Lord - Unplaced
Southwell 13:20:00 - Piccacard - 3rd - Betfair paid 1.639 for the place.

We made a loss of 0.393429 points on the day and have made a loss of 23.921425 for November.

For the new strategy we made a loss of -0.5334843 points on the day and have made a loss of 20.2334523 points for November.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 1.356 points on the day and have made a loss of 19.817262 points for November.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at…

Now, I do have to say that we are having a rather interesting November. This was not anticipated. I'm struggling to come up with reasons as to why that might be.

One member has suggested that the start of November has been difficult becasue of the unseasonably warm weather.

My take on this is that, as a kid I could just about manage to hurdle (on the sports filed) but, only at my own (slow) speed - as soon as I had to try and hurdle fast I cocked it all up and, as a result, got frightened of hurdling which made it even worse.

A horse might be happy running at a hurdle at 20mph but bottle it if he's running at the same hurdle at 30mph because the ground is firm?

Although I had riding lessons when I was in my early twenties, I don't really know much about horse racing but I do seem to remember having to slow the horse down and lining it before accelerating towards the jump - too fast a pace might scare the horse?

I also have a sneaky feeling that, apart from the good weather(which equals harder ground - not just the race but the training as well and faster races which might not appeal to Jumps horses), there might just be a long term trend because of the increase in Jumps and AW racing during the summer.

If I can identify that then it might be a trend that we can use; we have to understand that horse racing has moved on from the days of Clive Holt (new training methods, new technology and changes like the whip rule.)

So, over to you...

Do you think that there has been an increase in AW and Summer Jumps races over the last few years?

And, if so, is it affecting the winter racing?

Something to make you smile

A barely legal one from David O.

Morning Sex

She was standing in the kitchen preparing our normal soft-boiled eggs and toast for our Sunday breakfast.

She was only wearing the Tee-Shirt that she normally slept in.

As I walked in, barely awake, she turned to me and softly said...

You've got to make love to me at this very moment!"

My eyes lit up and I thought to myself...

"I'm either dreaming or this is going to be my lucky day!"

Not wanting to lose the moment, I embraced her and then gave it al my all; right there on the kitchen table.

Afterwards she said "Thanks." and then returned to the stove.

Her Tee Shirt still around her neck.

Happy, but a little puzzled, I asked... What was that all about?"

She explained... The egg timer's broken."

And some thoughts from me...


EU ministers meeting to agree on how many condoms should be in the standard EU condom packet.

German guy says, "4: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,Thursday, but Friday and ze weekend is for drinking."

French guy says, "8: Monday to Saturday, and twice on Sunday."

British guy says, "12"

Shocked looks from everyone else. How come?

"January, February,..."


Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards


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