Morning News

Good morning...

I suppose that I'm a "Glass Half Full" type of person and...

One of the reasons that I do the Morning News is to remind myself that even the bad days can have some good points.

Take yesterday, as an example, The strike rate for the top rated horse was terrible but...

1). If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in every race you would have made a profit.

2). If you had blindly backed every 2nd rated horse in every race you would have made a profit.

3). If you had blindly backed every 3rd rated horse in every race you would have made a profit.

4). If you had blindly done a £1 reverse Trifecta in every race, your £150 in stakes (approx) would have yielded over £1000 in returns.

Having said all of that, it would be nice if the top rated horse was more consistent - I'm still trying to get my head round why one day we have a great strike rate and the next, a glass half empty one.

Anyway, enough of this waffle, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 12.5%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.81% from all 27 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 81.94 units returned to 72 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 13.81%

Top Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the top rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.58 units returned to 24 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -60.08%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 42.45 units returned to 25 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 69.8%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 23 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.91 units returned to 23 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 30.04%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 16:45:00 - The CSF paid 2.92

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 18:50:00 - The CSF paid 6.59

Dundalk (AW) 20:35:00 - The CSF paid £7.98

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Haydock 13:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £4.20

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £90.10

Dundalk (AW) 21:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £984.30

Winners

From the 24 rated races there were 14 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Haydock	12:50	Island Heights (3)	5.50	5.90
Ascot	15:15	Fruity Orooney (8)	15.00	18.50
Wolverhampton (AW)	16:15	Zebs Lad (1)	9.00	8.90
Wolverhampton (AW)	19:50	Idol Deputy (1)	12.00	14.00
Dundalk (AW)	21:05	Political Policy (9)	13.00	15.53

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Haydock - 13:55:00 - Viens Chercher (4)

Races (over last year): 21 Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 38.10% ROI: 272.42% AV SP: 7.15

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £362.00

Viens Chercher came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Haydock 15:05:00 - Freddie's Portrait - Unplaced

We made a loss of 1 point on the day and have made a loss of 38.943425 for November.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.678 points on the day and have made a loss of 35.5671003 points for November.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.678 points on the day and have made a loss of 35.15091 points for November.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSNov.xls

Something to make you smile

A so true one from David O.

The Death of Conversation

And one from me...

Turkey and the Bull

A turkey was chatting with a bull.

"I would love to be Able to get to the top of that tree," sighed the turkey, "but I haven't got the energy."

"Well, why don't you nibble on my droppings?" replied the bull. "They're packed with nutrients."

The turkey pecked at a lump of dung and found that it gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree.

The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch.

Finally after a fourth night, there he was proudly perched at the top of the tree.

Soon he was spotted by a farmer, who shot the turkey out of the tree.

Moral of the story: Bullsh*t might get you to the top, but it won't keep you there.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 42 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards