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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Well, I guess that yesterday's big race was the Betfred Classic Chase Handicap.

I'm pleased to announce that we predicted the first two in the right order; the Forecast paid £157.48

It was the big race of the day with 14 runners.

Our top rated horse - Russe Blanc came first at 20/1 ISP (Betfair paid 22.8 for the win and 6.4 for the place.)

Our second rated - Midnight Prayer came second at 15/2 (Betfair paid 8.97 for the win and 3.35 for the place.)

The Exacta paid £191.10!

Now, I have a question to ask of you...

We seem to be on a hot streak at the moment and that sort of worries me; I just don't understand why that is happening.

In January 2103 (before we launched) we had a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 23.89%.

In January 2104 we had a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 28.90%.

In January 2105 we had a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 24.64%.

This January, the strike rate (for the top rated horse) is running at 34.36%.

Why the jump?

Now, I know that the ratings are self learning to an extant but, I wouldn't have expected the sort of jump in the results.

If you have any ideas (bearing in mind that I've made no changes), I'd be glad to hear them.

Anyway, long may it continue, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.27%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.27%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.27% from all 33 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 76.21 units returned to 96 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -20.61%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 48.47 units returned to 33 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 46.88%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 3.79 units returned to 32 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -88.16%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.95 units returned to 31 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -22.74%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Chelmsford (AW) 13:00:00 - The CSF paid £4.03

Warwick 15:35:00 - The CSF paid £157.48

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Wetherby 12:55:00 - The CSF paid £1.58

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 1 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chelmsford (AW) 13:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £29.90

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Chelmsford (AW) 14:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £26.60

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Chelmsford (AW) 14:10 Royal Birth (11) 6.00 6.4
Chelmsford (AW) 14:45 Volunteer Point (6) 8.00 9.99
Chelmsford (AW) 15:20 Our Channel (4) 8.00 10.50
Warwick 15:35 Russe Blanc (13) 21.00 22.82

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Wonders - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 28 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60% and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Chelmsford (AW) - 13:00:00 - Figurante (3)

Races (over last year): 53 Wins: 28 Strike Rate: 52.83% ROI: 145.81% AV SP: 2.76

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £242.80

Figurante won @ 2.75 ISP (2.93 BSP.)

Chancers Bet = NH Chase - Mares who are top rated and came 3rd last time out. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and Horse = Mare and where Position last time out = Third

Selection = Back to ISP - Wetherby - 12:55:00 - Run Ructions Run (4)

Races (over last year): 20 Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 40.00% ROI: 173.20AV SP: 4.33

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £146.40

Run Ructions Run came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Naas 12:45:00 - Newberry New - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.79 fpr the place.
Warwick 13:50:00 - Silsol - Unplaced
Naas 14:30:00 - Steamboat Bill - Unplaced
Chelmsford 14:45:00 - Volunteer Point - 1st - Betfair paid 3.1 fpr the place.

We made a profit of 0.7455 points on the day and have made a profit of 36.505 points for January.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.172551 points on the day an have made a profit of 29.965227 points for January.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.68139 for the day and we have made a profit of 25.788408 points for January.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJan.xls

Something to make you laugh

The Church Gossip

Mildred, the church gossip, and self-appointed monitor of the church's morals, kept sticking her nose into other people's business.

Several members did not approve of her extra curricular activities, but feared her enough to maintain their silence.

She made a mistake, however, when she accused George, a new member, of being an alcoholic after she saw his old pickup parked in front of the town's only bar one afternoon.

She emphatically told George (and several others) that everyone seeing it there would know what he was doing.

George, a man of few words, stared at her for a moment and just turned and walked away.

He didn't explain, defend, or deny.

He said nothing.

Later that evening, George quietly parked his pickup in front of Mildred's house... walked home... and left it there all night.

You gotta love George.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 14 rated races from two meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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