Morning News

Good morning...

Well, I can't promise to do this every day but...

I thought that I'd share with you, what I see when I watch the results coming in.

Obviously, I have my R5 (the new ratings algorithm) head on at the moment and so I'm watching the results rather carefully.

Here goes...

Page One

Thurles 13:05 - We got the Trifecta in this race; always a nice way to start the day. The Trifecta paid £40.40 - a very nice start.

Fakenham 13:25 - Our top rated horse came second; it was a handicap race, perhaps that was important.

Southwell 13:35 - Our top rated horse came secomd but we got the Combination Trifecta in this race. That paid £9.10

Thules 13:40 - We got the Trifecta in this race. The Trifecta paid £34.10

Warwick 13:50 - Our top rated horse won.

So, the first 5 races run, we've got 3 top rated winners so far (a 66.66% strike rate) and a top three rated winner from 4 of those 5 races. We've also had 2 Trifectas which have so far paid £74.50 for the £5.00 staked.

Fakenham 14:00 - I'm not sure what went wrong here; an 8 runner Novice Hurdle, we should have got that one right. After allm that's the sort of thing that we're good at. At this point I think that I need to go to ATR to look at the video of that race. Not that I know anything about horse racing but, it would satisfy my curiosity. Our PBS selection came 4th - as we're running at such a profit for this month I'm not going to spend time trying to work that one out.

Southwell 14:10 - Our top rated horse won. It was only 5/2 but a result is a result.

So, at the bottom of the first page of the ratings we're running at a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 57.14%. At this point I'm more interested in the races where we didn't do so well - the 14:00 at Fakenham stands out as the one to think about.

Page Two

Thules 14:15 - Our top rated horse won the race. Our strike rate (for the top rated horse) is now 62.50%. I don't see this as a bad race as we got a win and a place from the top three rated horses. Only 2 hours and 30 minutes until Beer O'Clock (Wine and Ricard O'Clock are gone as a result of my New Years resolution! And, to be honest, Beer O'Clock doesn't last very long.)

Warwick 14:20 - Another Handicap and our second rated horse won.

Fakenham 14:30 - Our third rated horse came third - nothing else. It was a Handicap Chase - I know that Handicaps are difficult but I'm aslo starting to worry about Chases (just something that I've observed over the last few months. Just a feeling but, one that I need to evaluate.)

Southwell 14:40 - Our third rated horse won the race and our top rated horse came fourth. Another handicap. Only 8 runners; we should have done better than that.

Thurles 14:45 - Our top rated horse won. Hurray! I still need to look into why our 2nd and 3rd rated horses didn't place - after all, it was only a 7 horse race. A 6 horse race if you take the non-runner into account.

Warwick 14:55 - Our top rated horse came 2nd and our 3rd rated horse won - can't really complain about that - it was a 13 runner handicap, after all. Nothing from the ratings suggest an error as the ratings were so close between the top three rated horses that is was always going to be a difficult one to call. I do need to look at what happened to Battle Dust (our 2nd rated horse) but that's the only note that I've made here. To be honest, when your top rated horse has a confidence of only 104.51%, the 2nd rated horse has a confidence of 100% (as always) and the 3rd rated horse has a confidence of 97.88%, it's anyone's race.

Fakenham 15:05 - Our top rated horse came 2nd and our 3rd rated horse won.

Our second PBS selection, Gwafa, won and Betfair paid 1.93 for the place. That means that we've made a slight loss for the PBS selections today but it could have been worse.

So, at the bottom of the second page of the ratings we're running at a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 42.68%. I don't think that we've been so hard done by, by the results so far - as the day rolls on I can expect a lower strike rate unless the later AW races at Chelternham come good.

Page Three

Southwell 15:15 - Our top rated horse came second. Once again, it was a handicap. Once again, I'm left thinking about why my ratings don't do well on handicap races.

Thurles 15:20 - No result - a Handicap Chase. Have I mentioned my worries about that before?

Warwick 15:30 - A reverse Trifecta in this race. We missed out on the top rated winner but we can't get it every time.

Fakenham 15:40 - Another top rated winner and the 2nd rated came 3rd. This was a 6 horse handicap.

Southwell 15:50 - No result - a Handicap.

Thurles 15:55 - No result - a Handicap Chase - Deja Vu?

Warwick 16:00 - We got the forecast - after a few bad results I'm feeling happier again.

So, at the bottom of the third page of the ratings we're running at a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 38.09%. Not so bad - I'm looking forward to Cheltenham to bring it all back. Can you see how much I rely on the AW races?

Page Four

Fakenham 16:10 - And another top rated winner. You can see that the results ar starting to suffer becuase of the difference in time between I calculate the forecast prices and the actual time of the race. Still, can't complain about a top rated winner.

Southwell 16:20 - Once again, our top rated horse wins!

We are now running at a 43.48% strike rate for our top rated horse - and we've still got the AW races at Chelmsford to come! Only 23 minutes to Beer O'Clock - not that I'm counting!

Chelmsford 17:00 - Oh dear. This was a handicap and the only result was that our 3rd rated horse came 2nd.

Chelmsford 17:30 - Another Handicap but our 3rd rated horse won and our 2nd rated horse came third. I think that, for R5, I'm going to have to take a really good look at Handicap races to see how I can improve the results.

Chelmsford 18:05 - Forget what I've just said - another Handicap and we got the Trifecta. It was only a 6 horse race but a result is still a result.

Chelmsford 18:40 - Another Handicap - enough said.

So, at the bottom of the fourth page of the ratings we're running at a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 40.07%. Three races left to go and I know that, whatever happens, we can't mess today's results up too much.

Page Five

Chelmsford 19:10 - I guess that I shouldn't have said what I said half an hour ago. Just our 2nd rated horse coming third from this 7 runner Handicap.

Chelmsford 19:40 - Our top rated horse came 2nd and our 3rd rated horse won. Only one race to go.

Chelmsford 20:10 - We finished the day with a forecast. That mean we've achieved a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 40% - that's 10% over my R4 target and means that we are running at a strike rate of 32.29% for the month so far.

So, am I happy or sad about today's results?

Well, I'm not really sure. I think that I'e learned a lot and I certainly know that I have a lot of homework to do.

However, a strike rate of 40% for our top rated horse isn't too bad.

So, you've had a little glimpse into my world; I don't do this every day or...

At least, no more than 7 times a week.

In between races I've also been doing other things (not all horse racing related) but mainly taking notes of things to test for R5.

It's becoming more and more obvious (over the last few weeks) that a different approach to Handicap races will produce the biggest return for R5 - it may just be the "Low Hanging Fruit" that is worth concentrating on.

Anyway, that's for next week, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 40%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 40%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 41.94% from all 31 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 74.18 units returned to 89 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -16.65%

Top Rated Horse - There were 12 winners from the top rated horses from 30 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.8 units returned to 30 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 6%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 28 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13 units returned to 28 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -53.57%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the third rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.38 units returned to 31 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -5.23%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Thurles 13:05:00 - The CSF paid £12.71

Thurles 13:40:00 - The CSF paid £4.86

Warwick 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £2.88

Chelmsford (AW) 18:05:00 - The CSF paid £4.13

Chelmsford (AW) 20:10:00 - The CSF paid £6.92

If you had blindly done the forecast in every race £31.50 would have been returned to the £30 staked.

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Warwick 15:30:00 - The CSF paid £16.57

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Thurles 13:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £40.40

Thurles 13:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £34.10

Chelmsford (AW) 18:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £11.60

If you had blindly done the tricast in every race £86.10 would have been returned to the £30 staked.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Southwell (AW) 13:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.10

Warwick 15:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £69.20

Winners

From the 30 rated races there were 21 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Warwick	14:20	As De Fer (10)	8.00	9.42
Warwick	14:55	The Bosss Dream (2)	9.00	12.00
Chelmsford (AW)	18:40	Bosham (7)	6.00	7.31

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Fakenham 14:00:00 - Vallient Creek - Unplaced
Fakenham 15:05:00 - Gwafa - 1st - Betfair paid 1.93 for the place.

We made a loss of 0.8835 points on the day and have made a profit of 28.9975 points for January.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.078987 points on the day an have made a profit of 26.267415 points for January.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.678 for the day and we have made a profit of 17.820213 points for January.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJan.xls

Something to make you laugh

Heaven or Hell

While walking down the street one day a "Member of Parliament" is tragically hit by a truck and dies.

His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter. 'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.'

'No problem, just let me in,' says the man.

'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.'

'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the MP.

'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.'

And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.

Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.

They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and champagne.

Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it is time to go.

Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises....

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.

'Now it's time to visit heaven.'

So, 24 hours pass with the MP joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.'

The MP reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'

So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell.

Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.

He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.

The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder.

'I don't understand,' stammers the MP. 'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?'

The devil looks at him, smiles and says, "Yesterday, we were campaigning.. ...

Today, you voted."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

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The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards