Morning News

Well, it's Sunday...

The day of rest?

And so I am taking a bit of a day off today.

It won't affect the ratings but you might have to wait until tomorrow morning for a response to any emails you send me.

I think that it's important to take a step back from work at least once a week.

In fact, I read, in a book about trading, that one home based currency (Forex) trader settles his accounts every now and again so that he can take a week off from trading, just to watch the markets with an un-biased eye (not having any open positions.)

It's not the best excuse in the world for taking a day off but...

It's the best I can come up with?

Yesterday's Results

Another average day, yesterday, as can be seen from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 26.83% is about three quarter of a percent higher than the annual strike rate - which is to be expected (if my calculations are right.)

Forecasts

We got the forecasts in the following races...

Lingfield 12:20 The CSF paid £8.35
Uttoxeter 12:35 The CSF paid £3.39
Cheltenham 13:50 The CSF paid £38.06
Wolverhampton 19:45 The CSF paid £6.14

There were a couple of reverse forecasts as well.

Tricast

We got the Tricast in the following race...

Lingfield 12:50 The Trifecta paid £18.40

Winners

From the 41 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - only one big price and the below are some of the more respectable ones...

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Cheltenham	12:40	Chesterfield	9.0	11.32
Punchestown	13:35	Kashline	5.5	6.6
Cheltenham	13:50	Sam Winner	8.5	9.4
Lingfield	15:10	Automotive	21.0	24.0

Comments...

We didn't get the Paddy Power Gold Cup right but I'm not going to beat myself up too much about that - these things happen with 18 horse Class 1 handicaps.

The 13:50 at Cheltenham was a race that made me smile - getting the forecast in a 14 horse competitive handicap (it paid £38.06) was a nice touch.

Automotive was a nice win - a drop in class and the trainer's only horse at the meeting.

The Portfolio

Our Bankers Bet yesterday (Suitsus in the 12:50 at Lingfield) won.

The price wasn't wonderful - 1.44 ISP/1.53 BSP but, that's what to expect from a Banker's Bet.

Our Chancers Bet yesterday (Natural Nine in the 11:50 at Lingfield) came second and that was a little disappointing as it was only a 4 horse race and he was the Trainer's only horse at that meeting.

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Any other business

And finally...

Change in Class

Now, I watched an American TV program about gambling, the other night, and the professional gambler that they interviewed at the race track said that the first thing that he always looked at was whether a horse was running in a lower priced race than normal; a lower class race in other words?

And, like him, I put a lot of value in Drop in Class.

So, let's look at the 12:20 at Lingfield.

Steventon Star was our top rated horse.

Goodness knows how; after all, look at his form...

300000

In fact, he'd only beaten one horse in those last 5 races.

And, he goes on to win.

The secret?

He'd dropped 3 classes.

Might be something to think about?

Dutching

I'm still looking into possible strategies for Dutching.

I have a 13 page print out of all the rated races yesterday and, this afternoon, I'm going to do the decent thing and take it to my local PMU (a sort of French bookies, but different - they are also bars and sometimes restaurants - and kids are welcome - I did an article about them a while back - you can see it here... French Racing.)

And there (possibly over a glass of wine - it's only polite, after all), I shall go through yesterday's ratings to see if I can prove my theory that...

For Dutching, we need to forget the horses and, instead, look at the races where Ducthing is likely to be profitable.

I'm pretty sure that we need to look at races where the 4th rated horse is far behind the 3rd rated horse in Confidence.

Interestingly, it looks like races with an RC0 of 3 are better bets?

These are races where I can rate more than 88% of all runners.

No doubt I'll be waffling on about my findings tomorrow?

And, I know that I'm supposed to be having a day off but...

I don't really consider sitting in a bar (which is also a bookies, but with kids and a restaurant), sipping a glass of wine and looking at horse racing statistics...

Work?

Or, if it is...

It's the dream job?

Anyway, it could be that there is no simple strategy but...

If there is...

I'll be keeping an eye open for it?

Today

Only 4 meetings today and the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham is probably the race that most people are interested in?

The Early Bird Preview ratings has got Exitas (the only one of the top three rated horses to have won over Soft going) down for that but, it could all change when the morning ratings come out.

So, have a great Sunday and...

Be lucky.

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards