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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Is February the new January?

I rather suspect that this is the question that fashion editors (and, more importantly, horse racing enthusiasts) are asking all other the world.

We've started the month with a continuation of last month's (and December's, come to think of it) incredible results.

OK, so we only finished up with a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33% and we have been spoiled by a couple of good months but...

That's pretty good, isn't it?

To be honest, what impressed me more yesterday was the numbers coming in from the top three rated horses; 15 of the 18 rated races were won by a top three rated horse (a strike rate of 83.33%) and that must be good news to those of you who lay horses or dutch them.

And, for you place betters, there were 30 paying places (from the top three rated horses) from the 18 rated races.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 31.58% from all 19 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 56.49 units returned to 54 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 4.61%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 16.74 units returned to 18 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -7%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7 units returned to 18 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -61.11%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the third rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.75 units returned to 18 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 81.94%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Plumpton 13:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.38

Kempton (AW) 17:00:00 - The CSF paid £4.12

Reverse Forecasts

There were 1 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Kempton (AW) 15:55:00 - The CSF paid £13.00

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 5 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Kempton (AW) 14:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £52.30

Kempton (AW) 14:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £16.00

Kempton (AW) 15:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £49.00

Plumpton 15:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £7.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 16:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £37.00

Winners

From the 18 rated races there were 15 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Wolverhampton (AW) 15:10 Celestial Bay (1) 8.00 8.68
Kempton (AW) 15:25 Ziggys Star (2) 6.50 7.40
Kempton (AW) 16:30 Doctor Parkes (2) 9.00 9.87

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Wonders - Season Proper - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 28 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60% and the Month is January or the Month is February or the Month is March or the Month is April or the Month is September or the Month is October or the Month is November or the Month is December

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton (AW) - 14:50:00 - Kelvin Hall (6)

Races (over last year): 52 Wins: 27 Strike Rate: 51.92% ROI: 141.74% AV SP: 2.73

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £217.10

Kelvin Hall came second.

Chancers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton (AW) - 14:50:00 - Kelvin Hall (6)

Races (over last year): 46 Wins: 19 Strike Rate: 41.30% ROI: 110.27AV SP: 2.67

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £47.30

Kelvin Hall came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Plumpton 13:35:00 - Arcamante - Unplaced - Pulled Up

We made a loss of 1 point on the day and have made a loss of 1 point for Febraury.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 0.678 points on the day an have made a loss of 0.678 points for February.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 0.678 for the day and we have made a loss of 0.678 points for January.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJan.xls

Something to make you laugh

Three Bulls

Three bulls heard via the grapevine that the rancher was going to bring another bull onto the ranch, and the prospect raised a discussion among them.

The first bull says, "Boys, we all know I've been here 5 years. Once we settled our differences, we agreed on which 100 of the cows would be mine. Now, I don't know where this newcomer is going to get HIS cows, but I ain't' givin' him any of mine."

The second bull says, "That pretty much says it for me, too. I've been here 3 years and have earned my right to the 50 cows we've agreed are mine. I'll fight 'im till I run him off or kill 'im, but I'M KEEPIN' ALL MY COWS."

The third bull says, "I've only been here a year, and so far you guys have only let me have 10 cows to "take care of". I may not be as big as you fellows yet, but I am young and virile, so I simply MUST keep all MY cows."

They had just finished their big talk when an eighteen-wheeler pulls up in the middle of the pasture with only ONE ANIMAL IN IT: the biggest Son-of-Another-Bull these guys had ever seen! At 4700 pounds, each step he took toward the ground strained the steel ramp to the breaking point.

The first bull says, "Ahem...You know, it's actually been some time since I really felt I was doing all my cows justice, anyway. I think I can spare a few for our new friend."

The second bull says, "I'll have plenty of cows to take care of if I just stay on the opposite end of the pasture from HIM. I'm certainly not looking for an argument."

They look over at their young friend, the third bull, and find him pawing the dirt, shaking his horns, and snorting up a storm.

The first bull says, "Son, let me give you some advice real quick. Let him have some of your cows and live to tell about it."

The third bull says, "Heck, he can have ALL my cows. I'm just making sure he knows I'M a bull!"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 12 rated races from two meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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