Morning News

Good morning...

I do like to watch (when I can), the results come in for the first page of the ratings.

I can't always do this but when I do, it does give me an indication of how the day is going to pan out.

Although, in the summer, when there is more evening racing, this isn't always the case.

Yesterday we had 5 winners (for the top rated horse) for the first 7 races of the day.

And, in the races where the top rated didn't win, it got placed.

Also, every one of the races on the first page of the ratings was won by a top three rated horse.

By the end of the second page of the ratings our strike rate (for the top rated horse) had dropped to 50% and only 12 of the first 15 races were won by a top three rated horse.

The reason is pretty obvious to me; the number of runners had increased and more of the races were handicaps.

By the end of the third page of the ratings we were down to 9 winners from the 21 races (a strike rate of only 42.86%) and only 17 of the 21 races had been won by a top three rated horse.

These are still good figures, though.

By the end of the fourth page of the ratings we were running at a 33.33% strike rate for our top rated horse and 18/27 winners for the top three rated horses.

At the end of the ratings we achieved a 29.03% strike rate for the top rated horse and a 61.29% strike rate for the top three rated horses.

Now, all I would say to you is to download a copy of yesterday's results (available on the morning ratings email), print it out and have a long hard think about it. Think about where the results have come from - obviously the earlier races - obviously the non-handicaps. It's obvious that we do better in the smaller races. That might help you select a sustainable winning strategy for the ratings. There were 31 rated races yesterdays; that's about average over the year.

Thus, yesterday's results are fairly typical for the year.

Sometimes we are rescued by the late evening AW races and sometimes we're not - we weren't, yesterday.

I'm not sure if I can quantify some sort of strategy but, if I were to try, I'd look at the low runner races in the first two pages of the ratings - especially the non-hanicaps.

So, I guess that's it's over to you. If any of you want spreadsheets (for your own analysis) with the relevant data - just let me know. I'm busy on R5 and I'm not too interested on building new strategies based upon R4. I'd just rather build even better systems and strategies based on the new, more accurate, ratings.
Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.03%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.03%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.13% from all 32 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 57.17 units returned to 90 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -36.48%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.82 units returned to 31 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -23.16%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 30 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.93 units returned to 30 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -46.9%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.42 units returned to 29 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -39.93%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Newcastle 13:30:00 - The CSF paid £7.76

Leicester 13:50:00 - The CSF paid £2.39

Newcastle 14:35:00 - The CSF paid £1.90

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Down Royal 14:15:00 - The CSF paid £4.67

Down Royal 15:25:00 - The CSF paid £4.82

Kempton (AW) 18:40:00 - The CSF paid £3.55

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Leicester 13:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.60

Newcastle 14:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.20

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ludlow 13:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.40

Down Royal 14:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £14.00

Winners

From the 31 rated races there were 18 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 1 of those was at a nice price.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Down Royal	14:50	Topper Thornton (2)	9.00	10.00

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = NH Hurdles Wonders - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Hurdles and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and RC1 was more than 90% and RC2 was more than 60%

Selection = Back to ISP - Down Royal - 14:15:00 - Dragon Khan (4)

Races (over last year): 21 Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 38.10% ROI: 116.59% AV SP: 3.06

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £34.80

Dragon Khan came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Ludlow 13:10:00 - Borak - Unplaced
Down Royal 13:15:00 - Rock on Westie - Unplaced
Ludlow 13:40:00 - Bonviston Boy - Unplaced
Ludlow 14:10:00 - Another Cobbler - Unplaced
Leicester 14:25:00 - El Massivo - Unplaced
Down Royal 15:25:00 - Quickasyoucan - Unplaced

We made a loss of 6 points on the day and have made a loss of 8 points for February.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 4.068 points on the day an have made a loss of 5.424 points for February.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 4.068 for the day and we have made a loss of 5.424 points for January.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJan.xls

Something to make you laugh

Possibly the best joke of the year so far (from David O.)

Today

Today's early test ratings show 33 rated races from five meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards