Morning News

Good morning...

So, Christmas is over (although there seems to be an awful lot of Christmas left in the fridge and in the wine rack) and it's back to work.

I hope that you all had a great time and drank and ate far too much!

I also hope that Santa brought you everything that you had asked for...

I asked him for better results for Focus Ratings but, secretly, I wanted a Meccano Kit as I have a silly idea which involves a bottle of wine, a corkscrew, an alarm clock, a few bits of string and, obviously, lots of meccano.

Time saved at 6pm (Wine O'Clock), opening that bottle of wine (and pouring the first glass) is obviously time that I can better spend focussing on Focus Ratings.

Take a look at the image; you need one of these machines, you know you do!

But, before I get started on next year's big project, let's look at yesterday's results....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.06%.

Now, that's not so good but...

It was a very busy day's racing and we just didn't hit the mark.

Forecasts

There were no forecasts yesterday.

Tricast/Trifecta

There were no tricast/trifectas yesterday.

Winners

From the 72 rated races there were 37 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - 14 of those were at a decent prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Sedgefield	12:10	Smooth Stepper	9.0	9.15
Huntingdon	12:15	Candide	21.0	26.13
Wincanton	12:30	Abigail Lynch	6.5	7.71
Limerick	13:05	Captainofthefleet	8.0	9.16
Wolverhampton	13:10	Kyrenia Castle	9.0	10.0
Huntingdon	13:20	Cyclop	7.0	8.08
Market Rasen	13:30	Benevolent	8.0	10.45
Huntingdon	13:50	Steel Summit	5.5	6.2
Market Rasen	14:10	Carli King	6.5	7.77
Huntingdon	14:25	Topthorn	5.5	6.2
Market Rasen	14:45	Chestnut Ben	9.0	12.37
Sedgefield	15:30	Bedale Lane	6.0	6.96
Wolverhampton	15:40	Brocklebank	10.0	12.5
Wolverhampton	16:45	Rouge Nuage	11.0	14.67

It looks like Market Rasen was the place to be yesterday; with 5 of the six races being won by a top three rated horse. If you had blindly backed all 18 top three rated horses (to £1 each) at that meeting you would have had a return of £30 for £18 staked. A profit of £12, in other words. That equates to a 66.66% profit on investment.

Actually, the same was true at Wolves with 6 winners (from the top three rated horses) from 7 races. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse (to £1 each) in the 7 races, you would have had a return of £36.50 for £21 staked. A profit of £15.50 (or a profit on investment of 73.81%.)

And, at the risk of labouring the point, at Huntingdon there were 6 races. If you had blindly backed the top three rated horses in every one of those races (to £1 each) you would have had a return of £39 for £18 staked. That's a profit of £21 for £18 staked. A profit on investment of 116.67%.

Once again, at Sedgefield, by blindly backing the top three rated horses (to £1 each) in all 7 races you would have got a return of £23.50 for £21 in stakes.

Now, I'm only mentioning this to subtly (or perhaps not so subtly) make the point that it's not all about backing the top rated horse.

And this really is a wake up call for me to get on with my work on Dutching.

Comments...

Now, I'm not going to go through each of the races individually; that would take too long and this Morning News would become the Evening News!

However, in 9 of the 72 rated races we got the first three but, in the wrong order.

In the Kauto Star Novices Chase our top rated horse came third and our second rated horse won the race.

In the Christmas Hurdle our top rated horse won the race and our third rated horse came second.

In the King George VI Stakes our second rated horse won the race and our third rated horse came third.

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = UK Recent Returners - where R4 Status = 1 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and where Position last time out = Winner and where Country = UK and Runners was equal to or less than 12 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 110% and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse was NOT a Course and Distance Winner and Horse was a Clear Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Huntingdon - 12:15:00 - Delgany Demon (1)

Races (over last year): 6 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 100.00% ROI: 176.00% AV SP: 1.76%

Delgany Demon came second.

Chancers Bet = NH Chase - Mares who are top rated and came 3rd last time out. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and Horse = Mare and where Position last time out = Third

Selection = Back to ISP - Down Royal - 13:00:00 - Personal Shopper (10)

Races (over last year): 20 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 30.00% ROI: 124.80% AV SP: 4.16%

Personal Shopper came nowhere.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades - you can see it here... Winter Upgrades

I am updating that post to show which upgrades have been implemented and, where possible, to indicate when I think that an upgrade may be implemented.

Because of Christmas very little has been done recently.

I do apologise for that but...

I have been too fat (or, rather, being too busy getting too fat) to work on the work that I have to do.

However...

However, I did realise (rather too late on Christmas Eve) that I can produce Ante Post ratings for some of the big races.

Now, I don't know how many of you would benefit from these advance ratings but...

They'll happen some time before Cheltenham.

Also...

Jill will, in the new year, be doing a weekly post.

She'll be trying to summarise some of your issues - mainly admin stuff but, by explaining what rocks her boat, she may be able to provide pre-emptive answers to some of the questions that you might have.

Today

Now, I do have to admit that I have eaten so much (over the festive period) that I may just explode!

And there's still the Boxing Day potato salad, gammon and red cabbage in yogurt (that, somehow, didn't get eaten on Boxing Day) to wade through...

But, I will try to take a look at today's racing.

Today's 5am test ratings show 48 races from 7 meetings.

There is only one unrated race.

Now, my eyes are a bit horse racing blind after all of yesterday's racing but here's a really quick look at what stands out to me...

Wetherby 12:30 - Our top rated horse, A Doll in Milan, is dropping three classes having come 4th in a class 1 races last time out. With a confidence level of 127.64% she looks the most interesting of the top three rated horses in that race.

Limerick 14:10 - Our top rated horse, The Mighty Milan, is the Trainer's only horse at the meeting and has a confidence level of 172.17%.

Nothing else really stands out but I do have to admit that my mind is more than slightly pre-occupied with the thought of eating all that Boxing Day potato salad, gammon and red cabbage in yogurt that I was feeling too fat to eat yesterday.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards