Morning News

Good morning...

I'm not going to talk too much about the strike rate yesterday as, although way better than we've seen for the last 3 Februaries, we've been spoilt for the last three months with an extraordinarily (and unexplainable) high strike rate.

Still, had you done the forecast in every race you'd have had £44.44 returned to the £34 staked.

The main thing that stands out for me is the number of horses that didn't finish.

May be this is normal for this time of the year and I've been too busy just being busy to notice but, here are some statistics from yesterday...

6 of our 34 top rated horses didn't finish (they pulled up, ran off, fell or unseated rider.)

13 top three rated horses didn't finish.

Ascot: 6 of the 55 runners, all day, didn't finish.

Lingfield: 0 of the 51 runners, all day, didn't finish.

Haydock: 13 of the 45 runners, all day, didn't finish.

Wincanton: 14 of the 51 runners, all day, didn't finish.

Fairyhouse: 9 of the 51 runners, all day, didn't finish.

In the first race at Wincanton, only 8 of the 15 runners managed to finish and...

In the 16:30 at Wincanton it was even worse; only 2 of the 7 runners actually made it to the end.

I didn't watch the results come in as Jill and I were out shopping (I do like shopping, when we're not shopping for shoes, that is!) and then out for drinks with friends.

But it did seem a frighteningly high percentage to my eyes.

Still, perhaps that's to be expected, this time of the year.

You may have notice that the ratings came out slightly earlier yesterday; I've managed to shave 7 minutes of the processing time and may be able to improve things even more.

However, today is a day off - I need to get over going out for a meal two nights running (would you believe, in deepest rural Brittany, that I had Cornish Pasty and Chips both times - you can take the boy out of Cornwall but, you'll never take Cornwall out of the boy) so perhaps a long walk is in order.

It'll be back to work with a bullet tomorrow though.

Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.41%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.41%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.41% from all 34 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 78.82 units returned to 99 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -20.38%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.63 units returned to 34 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -9.91%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 31 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 16.69 units returned to 31 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -46.16%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the third rated horses from 34 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.5 units returned to 34 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -7.35%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Haydock 14:05:00 - The CSF paid £12.85

Wincanton 14:15:00 - The CSF paid £6.79

Fairyhouse 13:45:00 - The CSF paid £13.35

Ascot 15:35:00 - The CSF paid £11.45

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Haydock 13:30:00 - The CSF paid £5.70

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ascot 14:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £19.50

Ascot 16:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £36.60

Winners

From the 34 rated races there were 20 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ascot	13:50	Vyta Du Roc (6)	5.50	6.40
Fairyhouse	14:55	Squouateur (7)	7.00	9.41
Haydock	16:25	Jonniesofa (4)	9.00	11.50
Ascot	16:45	Tearsofclewbay (2)	6.00	8.40

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Fairyhouse 13:45:00 - Jazz Ranger - Unplaced
Ascot 13:50:00 - Onenightinvienna - Unplaced
Fairyhouse 16:00:00 - Crowded Room - Unplaced
Wincanton 17:05:00 - Shadow Blue - Unplaced

We made a loss of 4 points on the day and have made a loss of 1.03 points for February.

For the new strategy we made a loss of 5.424 points on the day an have made a loss of 6.160308 points for February.

I have added a new section to the spreadsheet to indicate the results should we ignore the odds on selections.

For the refined strategy (the one that you should be using) we made a loss of 3.39 points for the day and we have made a loss of 6.31286 points for February.

The spreadsheet of all of the results is available at… http://focusratings.com/data/PBSFeb.xls

Something to make you laugh

One from Jill today...

Council Structure and bills.

The financial crisis is forcing councils, and business, at all levels to make some tough decisions.

If things continue like this for much longer...

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There's a real risk that we may have to lay off Fred.

And one from Iain A.

The Perfect Woman

He booked himself on a Caribbean cruise and proceeded to have the time of his life, that is, until the ship sank. 

He found himself on an island with no other people, no supplies, nothing, only bananas and coconuts.

After about four months, he is lying on the beach one day when the most gorgeous woman he has ever seen rows up to the shore. 

In disbelief, he asks, 'Where did you come from?  How did you get here?'

She replies, 'I rowed from the other side of the island.  I landed here when my cruise ship sank.'

'Amazing,' he notes.  'You were really lucky to have a row boat wash up with you.'

'Oh, this thing?' explains the woman.  'I made the boat out of raw material I found on the island.  The oars were whittled from gum tree branches.  I wove the bottom from palm branches, and the sides and stern came from a Eucalyptus tree.'

'But, where did you get the tools?'

'Oh, that was no problem,' replied the woman.  'On the south side of the island, a very unusual stratum of alluvial rock is exposed.  I found if I fired it to a certain temperature in my kiln, it melted into ductile iron.
I used that for tools and used the tools to make the hardware.'

The guy is stunned.

'Let's row over to my place,' she says.

After a few minutes of rowing, she docks the boat at a small wharf. 

As the man looks to shore, he nearly falls off the boat. 

Before him is a stone walk leading to an exquisite bungalow painted in blue and white. 

While the woman ties up the rowing boat with an expertly woven hemp rope, the man can only stare ahead, dumb struck. 

As they walk into the house, she says casually, 'It's not much, but I call it home.  Sit down , please.  Would you like a drink?'

'No!  No thank you,' he blurts out, still dazed.  'I can't take another drop of coconut juice.'

'It's not coconut juice,' winks the woman.  'I have a still.  How would you like a Pina Colada?'

Trying to hide his continued amazement, the man accepts, and they sit down on her couch to talk. 

After they have exchanged their stories, the woman announces, 'I'm going to slip into something more comfortable.  Would you like to take a shower and shave?  There is a razor upstairs in the bathroom cabinet.'

No longer questioning anything, the man goes into the bathroom. 

There, in the cabinet, a razor made from a piece of tortoise bone. 

Two shells honed to a hollow ground edge are fastened on to its end inside a swivel mechanism. 

'This woman is amazing,' he muses.  'Whatever Next?'

When he returns, she greets him wearing nothing but vines, strategically positioned, and smelling faintly of gardenias. 

She beckons for him to sit down next to her.

'Tell me,' she begins suggestively, slithering closer to him, 'We've been out here for many months.  You've been lonely.  There's something I'm sure you really feel like doing right now, something you've been longing for?' She stares into his eyes.

He can't believe what he's hearing.  'You mean' ...  he swallows excitedly and tears start to form in his eyes....

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'Don't tell me you've built a Golf Course!'

Today

Today's early test ratings show 20 rated races from three meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards